Wednesday 2 March 2016

What the bookies think: Next US president in 2016 election (2016-03-03 update)

Odds given across various bookmakers (10bet, 32red, 888sport, bet365, betdaq, betfair, betfred, betvictor, betway, boylesports, bwin, coral, ladbrokes, marathon bet, matchbook, netbet, paddypower, skybet, sportingbet, stanjames, totesport, unibet, williamhill, winner) are meaned and then inverted to give the rough chance bookies as a gestalt reckon each candidate has.

Position Candidate Chance implied by odds Change (since 2016-02-21) Notes
1 Hillary Clinton 66.01% +11.17% US Secretary of State 2009-2013
2 Donald Trump 31.77% +10.38% You can't stump the Trump
3 Marco Rubio 5.74% -14.35% Florida Senator
4 Bernie Sanders 4.11% -5.93% Vermont Senator
5 Ted Cruz 2.28% -0.47% Texas Senator
6 Michael Bloomberg 1.84% -1.41% Mayor of NYC 2002-2013
7 John Kasich 1.15% -0.36% Governor of Ohio
8 Joe Biden 0.82% -0.71% US Vice President
9 Mitt Romney 0.62% +0.21% Governor of Massachusetts 2003-2007
10 Jeb Bush 0.51% +0.21% Governor of Florida 1999-2007
11 Paul Ryan 0.33% -0.04%
12 Ben Carson 0.21% -0.06%
13 Vermin Supreme 0.20% 0.00% Satirical candidate
13 Newt Gingrich 0.20% 0.00%
15 Elizabeth Warren 0.14% -0.00%
16 Chris Christie 0.14% -0.01%
17 Rahm Emanuel 0.13% -0.03%
17 Sarah Palin 0.13% -0.07%
17 Deval Patrick 0.13% -0.03%
17 Andrew Cuomo 0.13% -0.03%
17 Susana Martinez 0.13% -0.03%
17 Rob Portman 0.13% -0.03%
23 Mike Huckabee 0.12% -0.03%
23 Carly Fiorina 0.12% -0.03%
23 Martin OMalley 0.12% -0.03%
26 Joe Manchin 0.12% -0.03%
26 Al Gore 0.12% -0.15% Invented the Internet
28 Rand Paul 0.12% -0.01%
29 Condoleeza Rice 0.12% -0.01%
29 Cory Booker 0.12% -0.01%
29 Jon Huntsman 0.12% -0.01%
32 Nikki Haley 0.11% 0.00%
33 Lincoln Chafee 0.10% -0.05%
34 Scott Walker 0.10% -0.03%
35 Bobby Jindal 0.10% -0.02%
35 Rick Perry 0.10% -0.02%
37 Mark Warner 0.10% 0.00%
37 David Petraeus 0.10% 0.00%
37 Kirsten Gillibrand 0.10% 0.00%
37 Rick Santorum 0.10% 0.00%
37 Janet Napolitano 0.10% 0.00%
37 Lawrence Lessig 0.10% 0.00%
43 Deez Nuts 0.10% 0.00% Satirical candidate
43 Kanye West 0.10% 0.00% Grammy Award winning rapper
- Jim Gilmore 0.10% 0.00% Books closed on 2016-02-24
45 Bob McDonnell 0.03% +0.01%
46 Lindsey Graham 0.03% -0.00%
47 John Kerry 0.02% -0.01%
48 John Hickenlooper 0.01% 0.00%
48 Amy Klobuchar 0.01% 0.00%
48 Brian Schweitzer 0.01% 0.00%
48 Evan Bayh 0.01% 0.00%
48 Eric Cantor 0.01% 0.00%
48 Michelle Obama 0.01% 0.00%
48 Michele Bachmann 0.01% 0.00%
48 Ron Paul 0.01% 0.00%
48 Herman Cain 0.01% 0.00%
48 Mike Pence 0.01% 0.00%
48 Mitch Daniels 0.01% 0.00%
48 Kathleen Sebelius 0.01% 0.00%
48 Tim Kaine 0.01% 0.00%
48 George Clooney 0.01% 0.00%
48 Howard Stern 0.01% 0.00% King of all media
48 Julian Castro 0.01% 0.00%

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