Friday, 15 December 2017

New Scottish tax rates vs old

TL;DR

Winners:

  • Those earning £11,500 to £33,000
  • Those earning £43,527 to £58,461

Losers:

  • Those earning £33,000 to £43,527
  • Those earning £58,461 and up

Anomaly between £33,000 and £43,000

The two new bands introduced to the Scottish income tax system will indeed give some relief to those earning £11,500 to £33,000. But, in absolute terms, it will also give a greater benefit to those earning £33,000 to £43,000:

In relative terms, the benefit is greater to those earning £11,500 to £33,000:

Why has this happened? The reason is that two new tax bands have been added:

So let's add a missing row to the table in the BBC article:

Thursday, 30 June 2016

Next Conservatives leader - What the bookies think (2016-06-30 update)

Odds given across various bookmakers (10bet, 32red, 888sport, bet365, betdaq, betfair, betfred, betvictor, betway, boylesports, bwin, coral, ladbrokes, marathon bet, matchbook, netbet, paddypower, skybet, sportingbet, stanjames, totesport, unibet, williamhill, winner) are meaned and then inverted to give the rough chance bookies as a gestalt reckon each candidate has.

Theresa May takes the lead.

Position Candidate Chance implied by odds Change (since 2016-06-26) Notes
1 Theresa May 52.64% +22.50% Remain
2 Boris Johnson 25.31% -29.01% Leave
3 Michael Gove 24.65% +17.80% Leave
4 Andrea Leadsom 8.33% -2.22%
5 Stephen Crabb 6.48% -2.40% Remain
6 Liam Fox 3.78% -3.02% Leave
7 Jeremy Hunt 2.19% +0.38% Remain
- Justin Tomlinson 1.49% +0.01% Books closed on 2016-06-29
- Patrick McLoughlin 1.49% 0.00% Books closed on 2016-06-28
8 Nicky Morgan 1.39% -0.82% Remain
9 Priti Patel 1.26% -2.31% Leave
10 Jacob Rees-Mogg 1.09% -1.97% Leave
11 George Osborne 1.06% -2.01% Remain
12 David Davis 0.99% -0.94% Leave
- James Duddridge 0.99% 0.00% Books closed on 2016-06-28
- Stuart Jackson 0.99% 0.00% Books closed on 2016-06-28
- Edward Timpson 0.99% 0.00% Books closed on 2016-06-28
- Mark Pawsey 0.99% 0.00% Books closed on 2016-06-28
- Phillip Lee 0.99% 0.00% Books closed on 2016-06-28
- Greg Hands 0.99% 0.00% Books closed on 2016-06-28
- Philip Davies 0.99% 0.00% Books closed on 2016-06-28
13 Nigel Farage 0.99% 0.00%
- Nicola Blackwood 0.99% 0.00% Books closed on 2016-06-28
- Louise Mensch 0.99% 0.00% Books closed on 2016-06-28
13 Jo Johnson 0.99% -0.33% Remain
- Andrew Percy 0.99% 0.00% Books closed on 2016-06-28
- Bob Stewart 0.99% 0.00% Books closed on 2016-06-28
- Daniel Kawcynski 0.99% 0.00% Books closed on 2016-06-28
- Andrew Rosindell 0.99% 0.00% Books closed on 2016-06-28
- Guy Opperman 0.99% 0.00% Books closed on 2016-06-28
- Karen Bradley 0.99% 0.00% Books closed on 2016-06-28
- James Cleverly 0.99% 0.00% Books closed on 2016-06-28
- Hugh Robertson 0.99% 0.00% Books closed on 2016-06-28
- Oliver Heald 0.99% 0.00% Books closed on 2016-06-28
- Robert Goodwill 0.99% 0.00% Books closed on 2016-06-28
- Christopher Pincher 0.99% 0.00% Books closed on 2016-06-28
- Helen Grant 0.99% 0.00% Books closed on 2016-06-28
- Mark Menzies 0.99% 0.00% Books closed on 2016-06-28
- David Jones 0.99% 0.00% Books closed on 2016-06-28
- Jim Paice 0.99% 0.00% Books closed on 2016-06-28
- Johnny Mercer 0.99% 0.00% Books closed on 2016-06-28
- Mary Macleod 0.99% 0.00% Books closed on 2016-06-28
- Heidi Allen 0.99% 0.00% Books closed on 2016-06-28
- Michael Ashcroft 0.99% 0.00% Books closed on 2016-06-28
- Stephen Barclay 0.99% 0.00% Books closed on 2016-06-28
- Liz Kendall 0.99% 0.00% Books closed on 2016-06-28
- Bob Blackman 0.99% 0.00% Books closed on 2016-06-28
- Gavin Barwell 0.99% 0.00% Books closed on 2016-06-28
- Caroline Noakes 0.99% 0.00% Books closed on 2016-06-28
- Jonathan Lord 0.99% 0.00% Books closed on 2016-06-28
- Laurence Robertson 0.99% 0.00% Books closed on 2016-06-28
15 Phillip Hammond 0.98% -1.64% Remain
16 Sajid Javid 0.95% -1.02% Remain
17 Ruth Davidson 0.86% -1.77% Remain
18 Dominic Raab 0.80% -2.57% Leave
19 Rory Stewart 0.74% -0.44% Remain
20 Penny Mordaunt 0.73% -0.67% Leave
21 Iain Duncan Smith 0.72% -0.74% Leave
22 Chris Grayling 0.71% -1.52% Leave
23 Daniel Hannan 0.69% -0.37% Leave
24 Michael Fallon 0.69% -0.37% Remain
25 Jesse Norman 0.65% -0.47%
26 Amber Rudd 0.64% -0.79% Remain
27 Graham Brady 0.61% -0.69% Leave
28 Liz Truss 0.59% -0.98% Remain
29 Zac Goldsmith 0.57% -0.52%
30 Owen Paterson 0.56% -1.41%
31 Anna Soubry 0.54% -0.60% Remain
32 William Hague 0.53% -0.08%
33 Theresa Villiers 0.52% -0.31%
34 Kwasi Kwarteng 0.52% -0.20%
35 Justine Greening 0.50% -0.54% Remain
- Iain Dale 0.50% 0.00% Books closed on 2016-06-28
- Peter Bone 0.50% 0.00% Books closed on 2016-06-28
- Sheryll Murray 0.50% 0.00% Books closed on 2016-06-28
- Jonathan Sheppard 0.50% 0.00% Books closed on 2016-06-28
- Andrew Strauss 0.50% 0.00% Books closed on 2016-06-28
- David Morris 0.50% 0.00% Books closed on 2016-06-28
- Michael Fabricant 0.50% 0.00% Books closed on 2016-06-28
- Marcus Jones 0.50% 0.00% Books closed on 2016-06-28
- Michael Winstanley 0.50% 0.00% Books closed on 2016-06-28
- Tim Montgomerie 0.50% 0.00% Books closed on 2016-06-28
36 Adam Afriyie 0.49% -0.96%
37 Ken Clarke 0.47% -0.05%
38 Robert Halfon 0.47% -0.51%
39 Chloe Smith 0.47% -0.08%
40 Sam Gyimah 0.46% -0.10%
41 Mark Harper 0.45% -0.31%
42 Nick Herbert 0.44% -0.21%
42 Nick Boles 0.44% -0.17%
44 Greg Clark 0.43% -0.33%
45 Edward Vaizey 0.42% -0.49%
46 Grant Shapps 0.37% -0.23%
47 Alan Duncan 0.37% -0.51%
47 Oliver Letwin 0.37% -0.01%
49 Andrew Mitchell 0.36% -0.19%
50 Claire Perry 0.35% -0.02%
50 Sarah Wollaston 0.35% -0.29%
52 Maria Miller 0.33% -0.12%
52 Francis Maude 0.33% +0.01%
54 Dominic Grieve 0.30% -0.07%
54 Caroline Spelman 0.30% -0.11%
56 Matthew Hancock 0.29% -0.43%
56 Esther McVey 0.29% -0.28%
58 Rupert Harrison 0.23% -0.05%
59 John Bercow 0.18% +0.01%
60 James Wharton 0.17% -0.19%
60 Harriet Baldwin 0.17% -0.03%
62 Robert Buckland 0.11% -0.09%
62 Eric Pickles 0.11% -0.09%
62 Damian Green 0.11% -0.09%
62 Patrick McLaughlin 0.11% 0.00%
62 Tracey Crouch 0.11% -0.09%
62 D Willetts 0.11% 0.00%
62 Nick Gibb 0.11% -0.09%
62 Michael Portillo 0.11% -0.05%
62 Peter Ainsworth 0.11% 0.00%
62 Malcom Rifkind 0.11% 0.00%
62 Sir George Young 0.11% 0.00%
62 John Redwood 0.11% -0.09%
62 John Penrose 0.11% -0.09%
62 Shaun Bailey 0.11% -0.09%
62 Nadine Dorries 0.11% -0.07%
62 Andrew Lansley 0.11% -0.10%
62 Louise Bagshawe 0.11% 0.00%
62 Mark Field 0.11% 0.00%

Sunday, 26 June 2016

Next Conservatives leader - What the bookies think

Odds given across various bookmakers (10bet, 32red, 888sport, bet365, betdaq, betfair, betfred, betvictor, betway, boylesports, bwin, coral, ladbrokes, marathon bet, matchbook, netbet, paddypower, skybet, sportingbet, stanjames, totesport, unibet, williamhill, winner) are meaned and then inverted to give the rough chance bookies as a gestalt reckon each candidate has.



Position Candidate Chance implied by odds Change (since 2016-06-24) Notes
1 Boris Johnson 55.50% -6.54% Leave
2 Theresa May 28.67% +2.74% Remain
3 Andrea Leadson 11.33% +3.28% Leave
4 Stephen Crabb 8.59% +3.73% Remain
5 Michael Gove 8.49% -4.98% Leave
6 Liam Fox 6.07% +1.93% Leave
7 Priti Patel 4.48% -1.70% Leave
8 Dominic Raab 4.12% +0.43% Leave
9 George Osborne 3.27% -0.17% Remain
10 Phillip Hammond 2.99% -0.70% Remain
11 Jacob Rees-Mogg 2.81% +0.01% Leave
12 Ruth Davidson 2.64% -1.22% Remain
13 Nicky Morgan 2.55% -0.27% Remain
14 Sajid Javid 2.36% -0.79% Remain
15 Chris Grayling 2.12% -0.54% Leave
16 Owen Paterson 2.00% +0.53%
17 David Davis 1.91% -0.20% Leave
18 Jeremy Hunt 1.86% -0.30% Remain
19 Michael Fallon 1.77% +0.59% Remain
20 Penny Mordaunt 1.53% -0.56% Leave
21 Iain Duncan Smith 1.53% -0.23% Leave
22 Patrick McLoughlin 1.49% 0.00% Remain
23 Justin Tomlinson 1.48% +0.49% Leave
24 Amber Rudd 1.41% -0.48% Remain
25 Liz Truss 1.38% -0.27% Remain
26 Adam Afriyie 1.38% +0.37%
27 Jo Johnson 1.32% 0.00% Remain
28 Graham Brady 1.28% -0.68% Leave
29 Rory Stewart 1.09% -0.26% Remain
30 Jesse Norman 1.09% -0.13%
31 Justine Greening 1.08% -0.25% Remain
32 Robert Halfon 1.01% +0.26%
33 James Duddridge 0.99% 0.00%
33 Stuart Jackson 0.99% 0.00%
33 Edward Timpson 0.99% 0.00%
33 Mark Pawsey 0.99% 0.00%
33 Phillip Lee 0.99% 0.00%
33 Greg Hands 0.99% 0.00%
33 Philip Davies 0.99% 0.00%
33 Nigel Farage 0.99% 0.00%
33 Nicola Blackwood 0.99% 0.00%
33 Louise Mensch 0.99% 0.00%
33 Andrew Percy 0.99% 0.00%
33 Bob Stewart 0.99% 0.00%
33 Daniel Kawcynski 0.99% 0.00%
33 Andrew Rosindell 0.99% 0.00%
33 Guy Opperman 0.99% 0.00%
33 Karen Bradley 0.99% 0.00%
33 James Cleverly 0.99% 0.00%
33 Hugh Robertson 0.99% 0.00%
33 Oliver Heald 0.99% 0.00%
33 Robert Goodwill 0.99% 0.00%
33 Christopher Pincher 0.99% 0.00%
33 Helen Grant 0.99% 0.00%
33 Mark Menzies 0.99% 0.00%
33 David Jones 0.99% 0.00%
33 Jim Paice 0.99% 0.00%
33 Johnny Mercer 0.99% 0.00%
33 Mary Macleod 0.99% 0.00%
33 Heidi Allen 0.99% 0.00%
33 Michael Ashcroft 0.99% 0.00%
33 Stephen Barclay 0.99% 0.00%
33 Liz Kendall 0.99% 0.00%
33 Bob Blackman 0.99% 0.00%
33 Gavin Barwell 0.99% 0.00%
33 Caroline Noakes 0.99% 0.00%
33 Jonathan Lord 0.99% 0.00%
33 Laurence Robertson 0.99% 0.00%
69 Theresa Villiers 0.99% -0.48%
70 Daniel Hannan 0.98% -0.04%
71 Zac Goldsmith 0.98% -0.39%
72 Anna Soubry 0.93% -0.54%
73 Edward Vaizey 0.93% -0.04%
74 Kwasi Kwarteng 0.81% +0.21%
75 Greg Clark 0.74% -0.29%
76 Mark Harper 0.69% -0.87%
77 Nick Herbert 0.68% -0.04%
78 Nick Boles 0.63% -0.08%
79 Esther McVey 0.61% -0.07%
79 Sam Gyimah 0.61% -0.03%
81 William Hague 0.61% -0.61%
82 Grant Shapps 0.60% -0.18%
83 Chloe Smith 0.57% -0.01%
84 Andrew Mitchell 0.56% -0.01%
85 Ken Clarke 0.54% -0.24%
86 Matthew Hancock 0.54% -0.02%
87 Iain Dale 0.50% 0.00%
87 Peter Bone 0.50% 0.00%
87 Sheryll Murray 0.50% 0.00%
87 Jonathan Sheppard 0.50% 0.00%
87 Andrew Strauss 0.50% 0.00%
87 David Morris 0.50% 0.00%
87 Michael Fabricant 0.50% 0.00%
87 Marcus Jones 0.50% 0.00%
87 Michael Winstanley 0.50% 0.00%
87 Tim Montgomerie 0.50% 0.00%
97 Maria Miller 0.48% 0.00%
98 Oliver Letwin 0.43% +0.02%
99 Alan Duncan 0.42% 0.00%
100 Caroline Spelman 0.41% -0.19%
101 Dominic Grieve 0.37% -0.20%
101 Claire Perry 0.37% 0.00%
101 Sarah Wollaston 0.37% -0.31%
101 Francis Maude 0.37% 0.00%
105 Rupert Harrison 0.28% -1.67%
106 Andrew Lansley 0.20% -0.60%
107 James Wharton 0.20% -0.39%
107 Robert Buckland 0.20% -0.33%
107 Harriet Baldwin 0.20% 0.00%
107 Tracey Crouch 0.20% 0.00%
107 Nick Gibb 0.20% 0.00%
107 John Penrose 0.20% 0.00%
113 Eric Pickles 0.19% 0.00%
113 Damian Green 0.19% 0.00%
113 John Redwood 0.19% 0.00%
113 Shaun Bailey 0.19% 0.00%
117 John Bercow 0.17% 0.00%
117 Nadine Dorries 0.17% 0.00%
119 Patrick McLaughlin 0.11% -0.16%
119 D Willetts 0.11% 0.00%
119 Michael Portillo 0.11% -0.42%
119 Peter Ainsworth 0.11% 0.00%
119 Malcom Rifkind 0.11% 0.00%
119 Sir George Young 0.11% 0.00%
119 Louise Bagshawe 0.11% 0.00%
119 Mark Field 0.11% -0.06%