What the bookies think: Next US president in 2016 election

Trump wins South Carolina and Bush drops out of the republican race. Rubio is now bookies third pick for president:

Odds given across various bookmakers (10bet, 32red, 888sport, bet365, betdaq, betfair, betfred, betvictor, betway, boylesports, bwin, coral, ladbrokes, marathon bet, matchbook, netbet, paddypower, skybet, sportingbet, stanjames, totesport, unibet, williamhill, winner) are meaned and then inverted to give the rough chance bookies as a gestalt reckon each candidate has.

Position	Candidate	Chance implied by odds	Change (since 2016-02-11)	Notes
1	Hillary Clinton	54.91%	+2.93%	US Secretary of State 2009-2013
2	Donald Trump	21.38%	+1.30%	You can't stump the Trump
3	Marco Rubio	20.00%	+9.20%	Florida Senator
4	Bernie Sanders	10.31%	-2.05%	Vermont Senator
5	Michael Bloomberg	3.08%	-0.67%	Mayor of NYC 2002-2013
6	Ted Cruz	3.00%	-3.36%	Texas Senator
7	Joe Biden	1.60%	-0.23%	US Vice President
8	John Kasich	1.54%	-0.64%	Governor of Ohio
9	Mitt Romney	0.39%	-0.09%	Governor of Massachusetts 2003-2007
-	Jim Webb	0.33%	0.00%	Books closed on 2016-02-14
10	Paul Ryan	0.30%	-0.11%
11	Ben Carson	0.27%	-0.05%
12	Vermin Supreme	0.20%	0.00%
12	Newt Gingrich	0.20%	0.00%
14	Al Gore	0.19%	-0.04%	Invented the Internet
15	Sarah Palin	0.16%	-0.03%
15	Deval Patrick	0.16%	-0.03%
17	Rahm Emanuel	0.16%	-0.03%
17	Andrew Cuomo	0.16%	-0.03%
17	Susana Martinez	0.16%	-0.03%
17	Rob Portman	0.16%	-0.03%
21	Elizabeth Warren	0.16%	-0.16%
22	Mike Huckabee	0.15%	-0.07%
22	Chris Christie	0.15%	-0.07%
22	Carly Fiorina	0.15%	-0.07%
22	Martin OMalley	0.15%	-0.10%
26	Jeb Bush	0.15%	-6.21%	Governor of Florida 1999-2007
27	Joe Manchin	0.15%	-0.04%
28	Rand Paul	0.14%	-0.04%
28	Cory Booker	0.14%	-0.02%
28	Jon Huntsman	0.14%	-0.02%
31	Condoleeza Rice	0.13%	-0.02%
32	Lincoln Chafee	0.11%	-0.04%
33	Scott Walker	0.11%	-0.02%
34	Bobby Jindal	0.11%	-0.01%
34	Rick Perry	0.11%	-0.01%
36	Nikki Haley	0.11%	0.00%
37	Mark Warner	0.10%	0.00%
37	David Petraeus	0.10%	0.00%
37	Kirsten Gillibrand	0.10%	0.00%
37	Rick Santorum	0.10%	-0.06%
37	Janet Napolitano	0.10%	0.00%
37	Lawrence Lessig	0.10%	0.00%
43	Deez Nuts	0.10%	0.00%	Satirical candidate
43	Kanye West	0.10%	0.00%	Grammy Award winning rapper
43	Jim Gilmore	0.10%	-0.02%
46	Bob McDonnell	0.03%	-0.00%
47	John Kerry	0.03%	-0.00%
48	Lindsey Graham	0.03%	-0.00%
49	John Hickenlooper	0.01%	0.00%
49	Amy Klobuchar	0.01%	0.00%
49	Brian Schweitzer	0.01%	0.00%
49	Evan Bayh	0.01%	0.00%
49	Eric Cantor	0.01%	0.00%
49	Michelle Obama	0.01%	0.00%
49	Michele Bachmann	0.01%	0.00%
49	Ron Paul	0.01%	0.00%
49	Herman Cain	0.01%	0.00%
49	Mike Pence	0.01%	0.00%
49	Mitch Daniels	0.01%	0.00%
49	Kathleen Sebelius	0.01%	0.00%
49	Tim Kaine	0.01%	0.00%
49	George Clooney	0.01%	0.00%
49	Howard Stern	0.01%	0.00%	King of all media
49	Julian Castro	0.01%	0.00%

Holyrood 2016 result predictions given polling (2016-02-08 update)

Current polling:

Moving average of latest polls for constituency vote:

Party	Vote Share (%)
SNP	53.32%
Labour	21.81%
Conservative	14.76%
Liberal Democrat	5.29%
Green	2.10%
UKIP	1.60%
Scottish Christian	0.68%
CISTA	0.22%
Scottish Socialist	0.17%
TUSC	0.12%
Solidarity	0.02%

(25624 samples over 29 polls)

Moving average of latest polls for regional list vote:

Party	Vote Share (%)
SNP	46.50%
Labour	21.31%
Conservative	14.44%
Green	7.61%
Liberal Democrat	5.69%
UKIP	2.62%
Scottish Socialist	1.26%
TUSC	0.48%
Scottish Christian	0.35%
Solidarity	0.17%
BNP	0.14%
CISTA	0.12%
Socialist Labour	0.12%
Scottish Pensioners	0.12%

(25486 samples over 29 polls)

Scotland Overall Summary:

Predicted outcome of Holyrood 2016 election given current polling:

	SNP	Labour	Conservative	Liberal Democrat	Green	Margo MacDonald
Constituency Seats	73 (+20)	0 (-15)	0 (-3)	0 (-2)	0 (n/c)	0 (n/c)
List Seats	1 (-15)	26 (+4)	16 (+4)	6 (+3)	7 (+5)	0 (-1)
Total Seats	74 (+5)	26 (-11)	16 (+1)	6 (+1)	7 (+5)	0 (-1)

	SNP	Labour	Conservative	Green	Liberal Democrat
1	SNP Candidate (Linlithgow)	Kezia Dugdale (Lothian list)	Ruth Davidson (Lothian list)	Alison Johnstone (Lothian list)	Alex Cole-Hamilton (Lothian list)
2	SNP Candidate (Edinburgh Eastern)	Neil Findlay (Lothian list)	Miles Briggs (Lothian list)	Andy Wightman (Lothian list)	Jim Hume (South Scotland list)
3	SNP Candidate (Almond Valley)	Jackie Baillie (West Scotland list)	Jackson Carlaw (West Scotland list)	Ross Greer (West Scotland list)	Willie Rennie (Mid Scotland and Fife list)
4	SNP Candidate (Edinburgh Pentlands)	Neil Bibby (West Scotland list)	Jamie Greene (West Scotland list)	Mark Ruskell (Mid Scotland and Fife list)	Jamie Stone (Highlands and Islands list)
5	SNP Candidate (Midlothian North & Musselburgh)	Mary Fee (West Scotland list)	John Scott (South Scotland list)	John Finnie (Highlands and Islands list)	Kate Stephen (Highlands and Islands list)
6	SNP Candidate (Edinburgh Central)	Ken MacIntosh (West Scotland list)	Oliver Mundell (South Scotland list)	Maggie Chapman (North East Scotland list)	Mike Rumbles (North East Scotland list)
7	SNP Candidate (Edinburgh Western)	Iain Gray (South Scotland list)	Rachael Hamilton (South Scotland list)	Patrick Harvie (Glasgow list)	-
8	SNP Candidate (Edinburgh Northern & Leith)	Claudia Beamish (South Scotland list)	Margaret Mitchell (Central Scotland list)	-	-
9	SNP Candidate (Edinburgh Southern)	Colin Smyth (South Scotland list)	Murdo Fraser (Mid Scotland and Fife list)	-	-
10	SNP Candidate (Greenock & Inverclyde)	Richard Leonard (Central Scotland list)	Liz Smith (Mid Scotland and Fife list)	-	-
11	SNP Candidate (Cunninghame North)	Monica Lennon (Central Scotland list)	Douglas Ross (Highlands and Islands list)	-	-
12	SNP Candidate (Renfrewshire South)	Mark Griffin (Central Scotland list)	Edward Mountain (Highlands and Islands list)	-	-
13	SNP Candidate (Clydebank & Milngavie)	Elaine Smith (Central Scotland list)	Alex Johnstone (North East Scotland list)	-	-
14	SNP Candidate (Cunninghame South)	Craig Martin (Central Scotland list)	Alexander Burnett (North East Scotland list)	-	-
15	SNP Candidate (Paisley)	Alex Rowley (Mid Scotland and Fife list)	Ross Thomson (North East Scotland list)	-	-
16	SNP Candidate (Renfrewshire North & West)	Claire Baker (Mid Scotland and Fife list)	Adam Tomkins (Glasgow list)	-	-
17	SNP Candidate (Strathkelvin & Bearsden)	Thomas Docherty (Mid Scotland and Fife list)	-	-	-
18	SNP Candidate (Eastwood)	Rhoda Grant (Highlands and Islands list)	-	-	-
19	SNP Candidate (Dumbarton)	David Stewart (Highlands and Islands list)	-	-	-
20	SNP Candidate (Kilmarnock & Irvine Valley)	Jenny Marra (North East Scotland list)	-	-	-
21	SNP Candidate (Ettrick, Roxburgh & Berwickshire)	Lewis MacDonald (North East Scotland list)	-	-	-
22	SNP Candidate (East Lothian)	Anas Sarwar (Glasgow list)	-	-	-
23	SNP Candidate (Dumfriesshire)	Johann Lamont (Glasgow list)	-	-	-
24	SNP Candidate (Clydesdale)	James Kelly (Glasgow list)	-	-	-
25	SNP Candidate (Galloway & West Dumfries)	Pauline McNeill (Glasgow list)	-	-	-
26	SNP Candidate (Midlothian South, Tweeddale & Lauderdale)	Bill Butler (Glasgow list)	-	-	-
27	SNP Candidate (Carrick, Cumnock & Doon Valley)	-	-	-	-
28	SNP Candidate (Ayr)	-	-	-	-
29	SNP Candidate (Motherwell & Wishaw)	-	-	-	-
30	SNP Candidate (Hamilton, Larkhall & Stonehouse)	-	-	-	-
31	SNP Candidate (Falkirk East)	-	-	-	-
32	SNP Candidate (Coatbridge & Chryston)	-	-	-	-
33	SNP Candidate (Falkirk West)	-	-	-	-
34	SNP Candidate (Cumbernauld & Kilsyth)	-	-	-	-
35	SNP Candidate (East Kilbride)	-	-	-	-
36	SNP Candidate (Uddingston & Bellshill)	-	-	-	-
37	SNP Candidate (Airdrie & Shotts)	-	-	-	-
38	SNP Candidate (Mid Fife & Glenrothes)	-	-	-	-
39	SNP Candidate (Kirkcaldy)	-	-	-	-
40	SNP Candidate (Stirling)	-	-	-	-
41	SNP Candidate (Cowdenbeath)	-	-	-	-
42	SNP Candidate (North East Fife)	-	-	-	-
43	SNP Candidate (Dunfermline)	-	-	-	-
44	SNP Candidate (Perthshire South & Kinross-shire)	-	-	-	-
45	SNP Candidate (Clackmannanshire & Dunblane)	-	-	-	-
46	SNP Candidate (Perthshire North)	-	-	-	-
47	SNP Candidate (Moray)	-	-	-	-
48	SNP Candidate (Orkney Islands)	-	-	-	-
49	SNP Candidate (Shetland Islands)	-	-	-	-
50	SNP Candidate (Nah h-Eilanan an Iar)	-	-	-	-
51	SNP Candidate (Caithness Sutherland & Ross)	-	-	-	-
52	SNP Candidate (Argyll & Bute)	-	-	-	-
53	SNP Candidate (Skye, Lochaber & Badenoch)	-	-	-	-
54	SNP Candidate (Inverness & Nairn)	-	-	-	-
55	SNP Candidate (Angus North & Mearns)	-	-	-	-
56	SNP Candidate (Aberdeenshire East)	-	-	-	-
57	SNP Candidate (Aberdeenshire West)	-	-	-	-
58	SNP Candidate (Aberdeen South & North Kincardine)	-	-	-	-
59	SNP Candidate (Angus South)	-	-	-	-
60	SNP Candidate (Aberdeen Donside)	-	-	-	-
61	SNP Candidate (Aberdeen Central)	-	-	-	-
62	SNP Candidate (Dundee City East)	-	-	-	-
63	SNP Candidate (Banffshire & Buchan Coast)	-	-	-	-
64	SNP Candidate (Dundee City West)	-	-	-	-
65	SNP Candidate (Glasgow Pollok)	-	-	-	-
66	SNP Candidate (Rutherglen)	-	-	-	-
67	SNP Candidate (Glasgow Kelvin)	-	-	-	-
68	SNP Candidate (Glasgow Cathcart)	-	-	-	-
69	SNP Candidate (Glasgow Anniesland)	-	-	-	-
70	SNP Candidate (Glasgow Shettleston)	-	-	-	-
71	SNP Candidate (Glasgow Maryhill & Springburn)	-	-	-	-
72	SNP Candidate (Glasgow Provan)	-	-	-	-
73	SNP Candidate (Glasgow Southside)	-	-	-	-
74	SNP candidate (Central Scotland list)	-	-	-	-

Central Scotland

	SNP	Labour	Conservative	Liberal Democrat	Green
Constituency Seats	9 (+3)	0 (-3)	0 (n/c)	0 (n/c)	0 (n/c)
List Seats	1 (-2)	5 (+2)	1 (n/c)	0 (n/c)	0 (n/c)
Total Seats	10 (+1)	5 (-1)	1 (n/c)	0 (n/c)	0 (n/c)

	SNP	Labour	Conservative
1	SNP Candidate (Motherwell & Wishaw)	Richard Leonard (Central Scotland list)	Margaret Mitchell (Central Scotland list)
2	SNP Candidate (Hamilton, Larkhall & Stonehouse)	Monica Lennon (Central Scotland list)	-
3	SNP Candidate (Falkirk East)	Mark Griffin (Central Scotland list)	-
4	SNP Candidate (Coatbridge & Chryston)	Elaine Smith (Central Scotland list)	-
5	SNP Candidate (Falkirk West)	Craig Martin (Central Scotland list)	-
6	SNP Candidate (Cumbernauld & Kilsyth)	-	-
7	SNP Candidate (East Kilbride)	-	-
8	SNP Candidate (Uddingston & Bellshill)	-	-
9	SNP Candidate (Airdrie & Shotts)	-	-
10	SNP candidate (Central Scotland list)	-	-

Moving average of poll subsamples for Central Scotland constituency vote:

Party	Vote Share (%)
SNP	58.92%
Labour	24.46%
Conservative	9.75%
Liberal Democrat	2.23%
Green	2.23%
UKIP	1.15%
TUSC	0.00%
Scottish Socialist	0.00%
CISTA	0.00%
Scottish Christian	0.00%

(1096 samples over 12 polls)

Constituency	2011 Winner	2016 Prediction
Airdrie & Shotts	SNP (50.2%)	SNP (61.8%)
Coatbridge & Chryston	Labour (52.2%)	SNP (57.0%)
Cumbernauld & Kilsyth	SNP (53.8%)	SNP (63.6%)
East Kilbride	SNP (48.0%)	SNP (60.0%)
Falkirk East	SNP (50.8%)	SNP (61.8%)
Falkirk West	SNP (55.3%)	SNP (64.0%)
Hamilton, Larkhall & Stonehouse	SNP (48.1%)	SNP (60.3%)
Motherwell & Wishaw	Labour (43.8%)	SNP (55.0%)
Uddingston & Bellshill	Labour (46.1%)	SNP (58.1%)

Moving average of poll subsamples for Central Scotland regional vote:

Party	Vote Share (%)
SNP	53.80%
Labour	25.87%
Conservative	8.72%
Green	5.87%
UKIP	2.92%
Liberal Democrat	1.68%
Scottish Socialist	0.72%
Solidarity	0.18%
TUSC	0.00%
Socialist Labour	0.00%
Scottish Pensioners	0.00%
CISTA	0.00%
Scottish Christian	0.00%

(1089 samples over 12 polls)

Predicted Central Scotland List Vote share

Party	2011 List vote (%)	Predicted List vote (%)
SNP	46.35%	50.37%
Labour	35.31%	26.72%
Conservative	6.37%	7.92%
Green	2.41%	4.94%
Pensioners	2.48%	2.44%
UKIP	0.54%	2.19%
Liberal Democrat	1.42%	1.58%
Christian Party	1.36%	1.34%
Scottish Socialist	0.35%	0.88%
Others	0.81%	0.80%
Independant	0.35%	0.35%
Solidarity	0.24%	0.23%
BNP	0.95%	0.17%
Socialist Labour	1.06%	0.07%

Predicted Central Scotland additional members:

#	2011 Result	2016 Prediction
1	Labour	Labour (Richard Leonard)
2	Labour	Labour (Monica Lennon)
3	SNP	Labour (Mark Griffin)
4	Conservative	Conservative (Margaret Mitchell)
5	Labour	Labour (Elaine Smith)
6	SNP	Labour (Craig Martin)
7	SNP	SNP

Mid Scotland and Fife

	SNP	Labour	Conservative	Liberal Democrat	Green
Constituency Seats	9 (+1)	0 (-1)	0 (n/c)	0 (n/c)	0 (n/c)
List Seats	0 (-1)	3 (n/c)	2 (n/c)	1 (n/c)	1 (+1)
Total Seats	9 (n/c)	3 (-1)	2 (n/c)	1 (n/c)	1 (+1)

	SNP	Labour	Conservative	Green	Liberal Democrat
1	SNP Candidate (Mid Fife & Glenrothes)	Alex Rowley (Mid Scotland and Fife list)	Murdo Fraser (Mid Scotland and Fife list)	Mark Ruskell (Mid Scotland and Fife list)	Willie Rennie (Mid Scotland and Fife list)
2	SNP Candidate (Kirkcaldy)	Claire Baker (Mid Scotland and Fife list)	Liz Smith (Mid Scotland and Fife list)	-	-
3	SNP Candidate (Stirling)	Thomas Docherty (Mid Scotland and Fife list)	-	-	-
4	SNP Candidate (Cowdenbeath)	-	-	-	-
5	SNP Candidate (North East Fife)	-	-	-	-
6	SNP Candidate (Dunfermline)	-	-	-	-
7	SNP Candidate (Perthshire South & Kinross-shire)	-	-	-	-
8	SNP Candidate (Clackmannanshire & Dunblane)	-	-	-	-
9	SNP Candidate (Perthshire North)	-	-	-	-

Moving average of poll subsamples for Mid Scotland and Fife constituency vote:

Party	Vote Share (%)
SNP	54.29%
Labour	21.78%
Conservative	13.58%
Liberal Democrat	6.48%
UKIP	2.00%
Green	1.52%
CISTA	0.89%
TUSC	0.00%
Scottish Socialist	0.00%
Scottish Christian	0.00%

(972 samples over 12 polls)

Predicted Mid Scotland and Fife Constituency results

Constituency	2011 Winner	2016 Prediction
Clackmannanshire & Dunblane	SNP (48.3%)	SNP (57.5%)
Cowdenbeath	Labour (46.5%)	SNP (54.5%)
Dunfermline	SNP (37.6%)	SNP (52.9%)
Kirkcaldy	SNP (45.2%)	SNP (56.7%)
Mid Fife & Glenrothes	SNP (52.3%)	SNP (59.1%)
North East Fife	SNP (37.2%)	SNP (50.4%)
Perthshire North	SNP (60.8%)	SNP (61.4%)
Perthshire South & Kinross-shire	SNP (51.5%)	SNP (57.2%)
Stirling	SNP (48.9%)	SNP (56.9%)

Moving average of poll subsamples for Mid Scotland and Fife regional vote:

Party	Vote Share (%)
SNP	49.02%
Labour	21.05%
Conservative	13.76%
Green	6.75%
Liberal Democrat	6.48%
UKIP	2.08%
Socialist Labour	1.10%
Solidarity	0.56%
Scottish Socialist	0.12%
TUSC	0.00%
Scottish Pensioners	0.00%
CISTA	0.00%
Scottish Christian	0.00%

(969 samples over 12 polls)

Predicted Mid Scotland and Fife List Vote share

Party	2011 List vote (%)	Predicted List vote (%)
SNP	45.20%	46.31%
Labour	25.03%	19.78%
Conservative	14.12%	14.44%
Green	4.23%	6.74%
Liberal Democrat	5.85%	6.17%
UKIP	1.10%	2.50%
Pensioners	1.59%	1.48%
Socialist Labour	0.69%	0.59%
Independant	0.57%	0.53%
Scottish Socialist	0.32%	0.52%
Solidarity	0.08%	0.32%
Christian Party	0.30%	0.28%
Others	0.25%	0.23%
BNP	0.67%	0.11%

Predicted Mid Scotland and Fife additional members:

#	2011 Result	2016 Prediction
1	Conservative	Labour (Alex Rowley)
2	Labour	Conservative (Murdo Fraser)
3	Labour	Labour (Claire Baker)
4	Conservative	Conservative (Liz Smith)
5	Labour	Green (Mark Ruskell)
6	Liberal Democrat	Labour (Thomas Docherty)
7	SNP	Liberal Democrat (Willie Rennie)

Lothian

	SNP	Labour	Conservative	Liberal Democrat	Green	Margo MacDonald
Constituency Seats	9 (+1)	0 (-1)	0 (n/c)	0 (n/c)	0 (n/c)	0 (n/c)
List Seats	0 (n/c)	2 (-1)	2 (n/c)	1 (+1)	2 (+1)	0 (-1)
Total Seats	9 (+1)	2 (-2)	2 (n/c)	1 (+1)	2 (+1)	0 (-1)

	SNP	Labour	Conservative	Green	Liberal Democrat
1	SNP Candidate (Linlithgow)	Kezia Dugdale (Lothian list)	Ruth Davidson (Lothian list)	Alison Johnstone (Lothian list)	Alex Cole-Hamilton (Lothian list)
2	SNP Candidate (Edinburgh Eastern)	Neil Findlay (Lothian list)	Miles Briggs (Lothian list)	Andy Wightman (Lothian list)	-
3	SNP Candidate (Almond Valley)	-	-	-	-
4	SNP Candidate (Edinburgh Pentlands)	-	-	-	-
5	SNP Candidate (Midlothian North & Musselburgh)	-	-	-	-
6	SNP Candidate (Edinburgh Central)	-	-	-	-
7	SNP Candidate (Edinburgh Western)	-	-	-	-
8	SNP Candidate (Edinburgh Northern & Leith)	-	-	-	-
9	SNP Candidate (Edinburgh Southern)	-	-	-	-

Moving average of poll subsamples for Lothian constituency vote:

Party	Vote Share (%)
SNP	49.90%
Labour	23.51%
Conservative	15.50%
Liberal Democrat	7.54%
Green	3.60%
Scottish Christian	1.88%
UKIP	1.30%
TUSC	0.00%
Scottish Socialist	0.00%
CISTA	0.00%

(1279 samples over 12 polls)

Predicted Lothian Constituency results

Constituency	2011 Winner	2016 Prediction
Almond Valley	SNP (54.3%)	SNP (58.3%)
Edinburgh Central	SNP (32.7%)	SNP (47.1%)
Edinburgh Eastern	SNP (47.4%)	SNP (55.2%)
Edinburgh Northern & Leith	Labour (41.6%)	SNP (51.4%)
Edinburgh Pentlands	SNP (37.3%)	SNP (48.0%)
Edinburgh Southern	SNP (29.4%)	SNP (45.0%)
Edinburgh Western	SNP (35.8%)	SNP (48.8%)
Linlithgow	SNP (49.8%)	SNP (55.8%)
Midlothian North & Musselburgh	SNP (47.2%)	SNP (54.0%)

Moving average of poll subsamples for Lothian regional vote:

Party	Vote Share (%)
SNP	40.93%
Labour	18.92%
Conservative	13.54%
Green	13.41%
Liberal Democrat	9.91%
UKIP	2.64%
TUSC	0.63%
CISTA	0.58%
Scottish Socialist	0.46%
Solidarity	0.00%
Socialist Labour	0.00%
Scottish Pensioners	0.00%
Scottish Christian	0.00%

(1297 samples over 12 polls)

Predicted Lothian List Vote share

Party	2011 List vote (%)	Predicted List vote (%)
SNP	39.18%	40.82%
Labour	24.91%	19.39%
Conservative	11.66%	13.47%
Green	7.59%	13.21%
Liberal Democrat	5.50%	7.90%
UKIP	0.64%	2.23%
Pensioners	1.14%	1.13%
Scottish Socialist	0.42%	0.85%
Others	0.44%	0.44%
Christian Party	0.32%	0.32%
BNP	0.70%	0.12%
Solidarity	0.12%	0.07%
Socialist Labour	0.59%	0.04%
Margo MacDonald	6.79%	0.00%

Predicted Lothian additional members:

#	2011 Result	2016 Prediction
1	Labour	Labour (Kezia Dugdale)
2	Conservative	Conservative (Ruth Davidson)
3	Labour	Green (Alison Johnstone)
4	Green	Labour (Neil Findlay)
5	Margo MacDonald	Liberal Democrat (Alex Cole-Hamilton)
6	Labour	Conservative (Miles Briggs)
7	Conservative	Green (Andy Wightman)

Highlands and Islands

	SNP	Labour	Conservative	Liberal Democrat	Green
Constituency Seats	8 (+2)	0 (n/c)	0 (n/c)	0 (-2)	0 (n/c)
List Seats	0 (-3)	2 (n/c)	2 (n/c)	2 (+2)	1 (+1)
Total Seats	8 (-1)	2 (n/c)	2 (n/c)	2 (n/c)	1 (+1)

	SNP	Labour	Conservative	Liberal Democrat	Green
1	SNP Candidate (Moray)	Rhoda Grant (Highlands and Islands list)	Douglas Ross (Highlands and Islands list)	Jamie Stone (Highlands and Islands list)	John Finnie (Highlands and Islands list)
2	SNP Candidate (Orkney Islands)	David Stewart (Highlands and Islands list)	Edward Mountain (Highlands and Islands list)	Kate Stephen (Highlands and Islands list)	-
3	SNP Candidate (Shetland Islands)	-	-	-	-
4	SNP Candidate (Nah h-Eilanan an Iar)	-	-	-	-
5	SNP Candidate (Caithness Sutherland & Ross)	-	-	-	-
6	SNP Candidate (Argyll & Bute)	-	-	-	-
7	SNP Candidate (Skye, Lochaber & Badenoch)	-	-	-	-
8	SNP Candidate (Inverness & Nairn)	-	-	-	-

Moving average of poll subsamples for Highlands and Islands constituency vote:

Party	Vote Share (%)
SNP	57.12%
Labour	16.28%
Conservative	11.06%
Liberal Democrat	9.22%
Scottish Christian	4.35%
UKIP	1.25%
Green	1.13%
TUSC	0.00%
Scottish Socialist	0.00%
CISTA	0.00%

(706 samples over 12 polls)

Predicted Highlands and Islands Constituency results

Constituency	2011 Winner	2016 Prediction
Argyll & Bute	SNP (50.6%)	SNP (58.7%)
Caithness Sutherland & Ross	SNP (48.4%)	SNP (60.2%)
Inverness & Nairn	SNP (51.5%)	SNP (59.9%)
Moray	SNP (58.8%)	SNP (62.1%)
Nah h-Eilanan an Iar	SNP (65.3%)	SNP (68.3%)
Orkney Islands	Liberal Democrat (35.7%)	SNP (40.4%)
Shetland Islands	Liberal Democrat (47.5%)	SNP (32.2%)
Skye, Lochaber & Badenoch	SNP (46.2%)	SNP (58.7%)

Moving average of poll subsamples for Highlands and Islands regional vote:

Party	Vote Share (%)
SNP	41.02%
Labour	16.37%
Conservative	12.13%
Liberal Democrat	12.10%
Green	11.14%
UKIP	5.00%
Scottish Christian	2.95%
TUSC	0.00%
Scottish Socialist	0.00%
Solidarity	0.00%
Socialist Labour	0.00%
Scottish Pensioners	0.00%
CISTA	0.00%

(666 samples over 12 polls)

Predicted Highlands and Islands List Vote share

Party	2011 List vote (%)	Predicted List vote (%)
SNP	47.53%	42.77%
Labour	14.46%	13.33%
Conservative	11.64%	12.09%
Liberal Democrat	12.14%	11.94%
Green	5.07%	9.46%
UKIP	1.88%	4.90%
Christian Party	1.98%	1.78%
Others	1.93%	1.74%
Pensioners	1.55%	1.39%
Scottish Socialist	0.28%	0.39%
BNP	0.63%	0.10%
Solidarity	0.11%	0.06%
Socialist Labour	0.79%	0.05%
Independant	0.00%	0.00%

Predicted Highlands and Islands additional members:

#	2011 Result	2016 Prediction
1	Labour	Labour (Rhoda Grant)
2	Conservative	Conservative (Douglas Ross)
3	Labour	Liberal Democrat (Jamie Stone)
4	SNP	Green (John Finnie)
5	SNP	Labour (David Stewart)
6	Conservative	Conservative (Edward Mountain)
7	SNP	Liberal Democrat (Kate Stephen)

North East Scotland

	SNP	Labour	Conservative	Liberal Democrat	Green
Constituency Seats	10 (n/c)	0 (n/c)	0 (n/c)	0 (n/c)	0 (n/c)
List Seats	0 (-1)	2 (-1)	3 (+1)	1 (n/c)	1 (+1)
Total Seats	10 (-1)	2 (-1)	3 (+1)	1 (n/c)	1 (+1)

	SNP	Conservative	Labour	Green	Liberal Democrat
1	SNP Candidate (Angus North & Mearns)	Alex Johnstone (North East Scotland list)	Jenny Marra (North East Scotland list)	Maggie Chapman (North East Scotland list)	Mike Rumbles (North East Scotland list)
2	SNP Candidate (Aberdeenshire East)	Alexander Burnett (North East Scotland list)	Lewis MacDonald (North East Scotland list)	-	-
3	SNP Candidate (Aberdeenshire West)	Ross Thomson (North East Scotland list)	-	-	-
4	SNP Candidate (Aberdeen South & North Kincardine)	-	-	-	-
5	SNP Candidate (Angus South)	-	-	-	-
6	SNP Candidate (Aberdeen Donside)	-	-	-	-
7	SNP Candidate (Aberdeen Central)	-	-	-	-
8	SNP Candidate (Dundee City East)	-	-	-	-
9	SNP Candidate (Banffshire & Buchan Coast)	-	-	-	-
10	SNP Candidate (Dundee City West)	-	-	-	-

Moving average of poll subsamples for North East Scotland constituency vote:

Party	Vote Share (%)
SNP	60.20%
Labour	17.92%
Conservative	16.03%
Liberal Democrat	4.26%
Green	1.38%
UKIP	0.86%
TUSC	0.00%
Scottish Socialist	0.00%
CISTA	0.00%
Scottish Christian	0.00%

(1088 samples over 12 polls)

Predicted North East Scotland Constituency results

Constituency	2011 Winner	2016 Prediction
Aberdeen Central	SNP (40.0%)	SNP (55.6%)
Aberdeen Donside	SNP (55.3%)	SNP (62.6%)
Aberdeen South & North Kincardine	SNP (41.7%)	SNP (54.0%)
Aberdeenshire East	SNP (64.5%)	SNP (66.7%)
Aberdeenshire West	SNP (42.6%)	SNP (56.4%)
Angus North & Mearns	SNP (54.8%)	SNP (61.3%)
Angus South	SNP (58.5%)	SNP (61.5%)
Banffshire & Buchan Coast	SNP (67.2%)	SNP (67.1%)
Dundee City East	SNP (64.2%)	SNP (67.0%)
Dundee City West	SNP (57.6%)	SNP (64.7%)

Moving average of poll subsamples for North East Scotland regional vote:

Party	Vote Share (%)
SNP	54.52%
Labour	15.56%
Conservative	14.79%
Green	6.62%
Liberal Democrat	4.96%
UKIP	3.07%
TUSC	2.36%
Scottish Socialist	0.28%
Solidarity	0.00%
Socialist Labour	0.00%
Scottish Pensioners	0.00%
CISTA	0.00%
Scottish Christian	0.00%

(1073 samples over 12 polls)

Predicted North East Scotland List Vote share

Party	2011 List vote (%)	Predicted List vote (%)
SNP	52.71%	52.41%
Conservative	14.11%	14.85%
Labour	16.44%	13.78%
Green	3.90%	6.38%
Liberal Democrat	6.81%	5.86%
UKIP	0.93%	2.74%
Pensioners	1.66%	1.52%
Christian Party	0.81%	0.74%
Scottish Socialist	0.42%	0.72%
Independant	0.44%	0.41%
Others	0.42%	0.38%
BNP	0.72%	0.12%
Solidarity	0.11%	0.06%
Socialist Labour	0.55%	0.04%

Predicted North East Scotland additional members:

#	2011 Result	2016 Prediction
1	Labour	Conservative (Alex Johnstone)
2	Conservative	Labour (Jenny Marra)
3	Labour	Conservative (Alexander Burnett)
4	Conservative	Labour (Lewis MacDonald)
5	Liberal Democrat	Green (Maggie Chapman)
6	Labour	Liberal Democrat (Mike Rumbles)
7	SNP	Conservative (Ross Thomson)

West Scotland

	SNP	Labour	Conservative	Liberal Democrat	Green
Constituency Seats	10 (+4)	0 (-4)	0 (n/c)	0 (n/c)	0 (n/c)
List Seats	0 (-2)	4 (+1)	2 (n/c)	0 (n/c)	1 (+1)
Total Seats	10 (+2)	4 (-3)	2 (n/c)	0 (n/c)	1 (+1)

	SNP	Labour	Conservative	Green
1	SNP Candidate (Greenock & Inverclyde)	Jackie Baillie (West Scotland list)	Jackson Carlaw (West Scotland list)	Ross Greer (West Scotland list)
2	SNP Candidate (Cunninghame North)	Neil Bibby (West Scotland list)	Jamie Greene (West Scotland list)	-
3	SNP Candidate (Renfrewshire South)	Mary Fee (West Scotland list)	-	-
4	SNP Candidate (Clydebank & Milngavie)	Ken MacIntosh (West Scotland list)	-	-
5	SNP Candidate (Cunninghame South)	-	-	-
6	SNP Candidate (Paisley)	-	-	-
7	SNP Candidate (Renfrewshire North & West)	-	-	-
8	SNP Candidate (Strathkelvin & Bearsden)	-	-	-
9	SNP Candidate (Eastwood)	-	-	-
10	SNP Candidate (Dumbarton)	-	-	-

Moving average of poll subsamples for West Scotland constituency vote:

Party	Vote Share (%)
SNP	58.75%
Labour	24.29%
Conservative	11.78%
Liberal Democrat	2.45%
UKIP	2.37%
Green	1.58%
Scottish Christian	0.93%
Scottish Socialist	0.87%
TUSC	0.00%
CISTA	0.00%

(1059 samples over 12 polls)

Predicted West Scotland Constituency results

Constituency	2011 Winner	2016 Prediction
Clydebank & Milngavie	SNP (43.3%)	SNP (57.4%)
Cunninghame North	SNP (52.6%)	SNP (61.3%)
Cunninghame South	SNP (49.8%)	SNP (60.6%)
Dumbarton	Labour (44.1%)	SNP (53.6%)
Eastwood	Labour (39.7%)	SNP (45.4%)
Greenock & Inverclyde	Labour (43.9%)	SNP (57.1%)
Paisley	SNP (42.6%)	SNP (57.2%)
Renfrewshire North & West	SNP (41.9%)	SNP (55.6%)
Renfrewshire South	Labour (48.1%)	SNP (54.8%)
Strathkelvin & Bearsden	SNP (42.2%)	SNP (56.5%)

Moving average of poll subsamples for West Scotland regional vote:

Party	Vote Share (%)
SNP	51.35%
Labour	25.54%
Conservative	11.08%
Green	6.25%
Liberal Democrat	2.79%
UKIP	2.36%
Scottish Christian	0.83%
Solidarity	0.11%
Scottish Socialist	0.07%
TUSC	0.00%
Socialist Labour	0.00%
Scottish Pensioners	0.00%
CISTA	0.00%

(1054 samples over 12 polls)

Predicted West Scotland List Vote share

Party	2011 List vote (%)	Predicted List vote (%)
SNP	41.54%	46.49%
Labour	32.77%	25.41%
Conservative	12.75%	12.65%
Green	2.98%	5.59%
Liberal Democrat	3.24%	3.09%
UKIP	0.71%	2.15%
Pensioners	1.69%	1.63%
Scottish Socialist	0.62%	0.94%
Christian Party	0.87%	0.84%
Others	0.73%	0.70%
Independant	0.16%	0.16%
Solidarity	0.16%	0.15%
BNP	0.77%	0.13%
Socialist Labour	1.01%	0.07%

Predicted West Scotland additional members:

#	2011 Result	2016 Prediction
1	Conservative	Labour (Jackie Baillie)
2	Labour	Labour (Neil Bibby)
3	Conservative	Conservative (Jackson Carlaw)
4	SNP	Labour (Mary Fee)
5	Labour	Labour (Ken MacIntosh)
6	SNP	Conservative (Jamie Greene)
7	Labour	Green (Ross Greer)

South Scotland

	SNP	Labour	Conservative	Liberal Democrat	Green
Constituency Seats	9 (+5)	0 (-2)	0 (-3)	0 (n/c)	0 (n/c)
List Seats	0 (-4)	3 (+1)	3 (+3)	1 (n/c)	0 (n/c)
Total Seats	9 (+1)	3 (-1)	3 (n/c)	1 (n/c)	0 (n/c)

	SNP	Labour	Conservative	Liberal Democrat
1	SNP Candidate (Kilmarnock & Irvine Valley)	Iain Gray (South Scotland list)	John Scott (South Scotland list)	Jim Hume (South Scotland list)
2	SNP Candidate (Ettrick, Roxburgh & Berwickshire)	Claudia Beamish (South Scotland list)	Oliver Mundell (South Scotland list)	-
3	SNP Candidate (East Lothian)	Colin Smyth (South Scotland list)	Rachael Hamilton (South Scotland list)	-
4	SNP Candidate (Dumfriesshire)	-	-	-
5	SNP Candidate (Clydesdale)	-	-	-
6	SNP Candidate (Galloway & West Dumfries)	-	-	-
7	SNP Candidate (Midlothian South, Tweeddale & Lauderdale)	-	-	-
8	SNP Candidate (Carrick, Cumnock & Doon Valley)	-	-	-
9	SNP Candidate (Ayr)	-	-	-

Moving average of poll subsamples for South Scotland constituency vote:

Party	Vote Share (%)
SNP	51.12%
Conservative	22.03%
Labour	19.78%
Liberal Democrat	5.13%
UKIP	0.73%
Green	0.46%
TUSC	0.00%
Scottish Socialist	0.00%
CISTA	0.00%
Scottish Christian	0.00%

(896 samples over 12 polls)

Predicted South Scotland Constituency results

Constituency	2011 Winner	2016 Prediction
Ayr	Conservative (38.9%)	SNP (46.8%)
Carrick, Cumnock & Doon Valley	SNP (46.2%)	SNP (54.1%)
Clydesdale	SNP (49.9%)	SNP (57.4%)
Dumfriesshire	Labour (39.6%)	SNP (42.7%)
East Lothian	Labour (39.0%)	SNP (50.2%)
Ettrick, Roxburgh & Berwickshire	Conservative (44.9%)	SNP (41.5%)
Galloway & West Dumfries	Conservative (36.9%)	SNP (46.2%)
Kilmarnock & Irvine Valley	SNP (53.2%)	SNP (57.9%)
Midlothian South, Tweeddale & Lauderdale	SNP (43.5%)	SNP (53.3%)

Moving average of poll subsamples for South Scotland regional vote:

Party	Vote Share (%)
SNP	46.99%
Labour	18.43%
Conservative	15.40%
Liberal Democrat	7.73%
Green	5.51%
UKIP	4.95%
Scottish Pensioners	1.59%
Scottish Socialist	0.11%
TUSC	0.00%
Solidarity	0.00%
Socialist Labour	0.00%
CISTA	0.00%
Scottish Christian	0.00%

(909 samples over 12 polls)

Predicted South Scotland List Vote share

Party	2011 List vote (%)	Predicted List vote (%)
SNP	40.98%	43.83%
Labour	25.32%	18.87%
Conservative	19.49%	18.43%
Liberal Democrat	5.41%	6.64%
Green	3.06%	5.26%
UKIP	1.16%	4.04%
Pensioners	1.58%	1.50%
Christian Party	0.69%	0.65%
Scottish Socialist	0.25%	0.41%
Solidarity	0.29%	0.17%
BNP	0.72%	0.12%
Socialist Labour	1.04%	0.07%
Independant	0.00%	0.00%
Others	0.00%	0.00%

Predicted South Scotland additional members:

#	2011 Result	2016 Prediction
1	Labour	Labour (Iain Gray)
2	SNP	Conservative (John Scott)
3	SNP	Labour (Claudia Beamish)
4	Labour	Conservative (Oliver Mundell)
5	SNP	Liberal Democrat (Jim Hume)
6	Liberal Democrat	Labour (Colin Smyth)
7	SNP	Conservative (Rachael Hamilton)

Glasgow

	SNP	Labour	Conservative	Liberal Democrat	Green
Constituency Seats	9 (+4)	0 (-4)	0 (n/c)	0 (n/c)	0 (n/c)
List Seats	0 (-2)	5 (+2)	1 (n/c)	0 (n/c)	1 (n/c)
Total Seats	9 (+2)	5 (-2)	1 (n/c)	0 (n/c)	1 (n/c)

	SNP	Labour	Green	Conservative
1	SNP Candidate (Glasgow Pollok)	Anas Sarwar (Glasgow list)	Patrick Harvie (Glasgow list)	Adam Tomkins (Glasgow list)
2	SNP Candidate (Rutherglen)	Johann Lamont (Glasgow list)	-	-
3	SNP Candidate (Glasgow Kelvin)	James Kelly (Glasgow list)	-	-
4	SNP Candidate (Glasgow Cathcart)	Pauline McNeill (Glasgow list)	-	-
5	SNP Candidate (Glasgow Anniesland)	Bill Butler (Glasgow list)	-	-
6	SNP Candidate (Glasgow Shettleston)	-	-	-
7	SNP Candidate (Glasgow Maryhill & Springburn)	-	-	-
8	SNP Candidate (Glasgow Provan)	-	-	-
9	SNP Candidate (Glasgow Southside)	-	-	-

Moving average of poll subsamples for Glasgow constituency vote:

Party	Vote Share (%)
SNP	56.49%
Labour	25.72%
Conservative	9.52%
Liberal Democrat	3.71%
Green	3.52%
Scottish Socialist	0.94%
TUSC	0.89%
UKIP	0.85%
CISTA	0.77%
Scottish Christian	0.00%

(1045 samples over 12 polls)

Predicted Glasgow Constituency results

Constituency	2011 Winner	2016 Prediction
Glasgow Anniesland	SNP (43.2%)	SNP (56.4%)
Glasgow Cathcart	SNP (45.5%)	SNP (57.2%)
Glasgow Kelvin	SNP (43.3%)	SNP (56.4%)
Glasgow Maryhill & Springburn	Labour (48.1%)	SNP (56.5%)
Glasgow Pollok	Labour (47.5%)	SNP (57.9%)
Glasgow Provan	Labour (52.3%)	SNP (56.5%)
Glasgow Shettleston	SNP (47.8%)	SNP (59.4%)
Glasgow Southside	SNP (54.4%)	SNP (62.3%)
Rutherglen	Labour (46.1%)	SNP (54.1%)

Moving average of poll subsamples for Glasgow regional vote:

Party	Vote Share (%)
SNP	46.49%
Labour	26.14%
Green	10.08%
Conservative	9.64%
Liberal Democrat	3.78%
UKIP	2.56%
CISTA	1.87%
Scottish Socialist	1.11%
TUSC	0.93%
Solidarity	0.12%
Socialist Labour	0.00%
Scottish Pensioners	0.00%
Scottish Christian	0.00%

(1047 samples over 12 polls)

Predicted Glasgow List Vote share

Party	2011 List vote (%)	Predicted List vote (%)
SNP	39.82%	42.43%
Labour	34.99%	26.09%
Green	5.97%	9.81%
Conservative	6.11%	8.05%
Others	4.45%	4.22%
Liberal Democrat	2.55%	3.15%
UKIP	0.54%	1.97%
Pensioners	1.80%	1.71%
Scottish Socialist	0.65%	1.48%
Christian Party	0.72%	0.68%
BNP	1.16%	0.19%
Independant	0.16%	0.15%
Socialist Labour	1.09%	0.07%
Solidarity	0.00%	0.00%

Predicted Glasgow additional members:

#	2011 Result	2016 Prediction
1	Labour	Labour (Anas Sarwar)
2	SNP	Labour (Johann Lamont)
3	Conservative	Green (Patrick Harvie)
4	Green	Labour (James Kelly)
5	Labour	Conservative (Adam Tomkins)
6	SNP	Labour (Pauline McNeill)
7	Labour	Labour (Bill Butler)