What the bookies think: Next US president in 2016 election (2016-03-19 update)

What the bookies think: Next US president in 2016 election

Odds given across various bookmakers (10bet, 32red, 888sport, bet365, betdaq, betfair, betfred, betvictor, betway, boylesports, bwin, coral, ladbrokes, marathon bet, matchbook, netbet, paddypower, skybet, sportingbet, stanjames, totesport, unibet, williamhill, winner) are meaned and then inverted to give the rough chance bookies as a gestalt reckon each candidate has.

Position	Candidate	Chance implied by odds	Change (since 2016-03-03)	Notes
1	Hillary Clinton	71.27%	+4.85%	US Secretary of State 2009-2013
2	Donald Trump	26.17%	-3.95%	You can't stump the Trump
-	Jeb Bush	4.44%	+4.25%	Books closed on 2016-03-07
3	John Kasich	4.16%	+2.75%	Governor of Ohio
4	Bernie Sanders	3.94%	-0.12%	Vermont Senator
5	Ted Cruz	3.40%	+1.14%	Texas Senator
6	Joe Biden	1.69%	+0.72%	US Vice President
7	Paul Ryan	0.79%	+0.36%	Speaker of the US House of Representatives
8	Mitt Romney	0.73%	-0.01%	Governor of Massachusetts 2003-2007
-	Chris Christie	0.46%	+0.29%	Books closed on 2016-03-07
9	Michael Bloomberg	0.35%	-1.60%	Mayor of NYC 2002-2013
10	Marco Rubio	0.33%	-6.49%	Florida Senator
-	Andrew Cuomo	0.24%	+0.10%	Books closed on 2016-03-07
-	Elizabeth Warren	0.23%	+0.09%	Books closed on 2016-03-07
11	Ben Carson	0.22%	+0.02%	Director of Padiatric Neurosurgery 1984-2013
-	Mike Huckabee	0.20%	+0.07%	Books closed on 2016-03-07
-	Carly Fiorina	0.20%	+0.07%	Books closed on 2016-03-07
-	Martin OMalley	0.20%	+0.07%	Books closed on 2016-03-07
-	Vermin Supreme	0.20%	0.00%	Books closed on 2016-03-07
-	Newt Gingrich	0.20%	0.00%	Books closed on 2016-03-07
-	Rahm Emanuel	0.19%	+0.05%	Books closed on 2016-03-07
-	Sarah Palin	0.19%	+0.05%	Books closed on 2016-03-07
-	Deval Patrick	0.19%	+0.05%	Books closed on 2016-03-07
-	Susana Martinez	0.19%	+0.05%	Books closed on 2016-03-07
-	Rob Portman	0.19%	+0.05%	Books closed on 2016-03-07
-	Joe Manchin	0.18%	+0.05%	Books closed on 2016-03-07
-	Al Gore	0.18%	+0.05%	Books closed on 2016-03-07
-	Rand Paul	0.13%	+0.01%	Books closed on 2016-03-07
-	Condoleeza Rice	0.13%	+0.01%	Books closed on 2016-03-07
-	Cory Booker	0.13%	+0.01%	Books closed on 2016-03-07
-	Jon Huntsman	0.13%	+0.01%	Books closed on 2016-03-07
-	Lincoln Chafee	0.12%	+0.01%	Books closed on 2016-03-05
-	Nikki Haley	0.11%	0.00%	Books closed on 2016-03-04
-	Gary Johnson	0.11%	-0.01%	Books closed on 2016-03-04
-	Bobby Jindal	0.10%	-0.01%	Books closed on 2016-03-07
-	Rick Perry	0.10%	-0.01%	Books closed on 2016-03-07
-	Mark Warner	0.10%	0.00%	Books closed on 2016-03-07
-	David Petraeus	0.10%	0.00%	Books closed on 2016-03-07
-	Kirsten Gillibrand	0.10%	0.00%	Books closed on 2016-03-07
-	Scott Walker	0.10%	-0.01%	Books closed on 2016-03-07
-	Rick Santorum	0.10%	0.00%	Books closed on 2016-03-07
-	Janet Napolitano	0.10%	0.00%	Books closed on 2016-03-07
-	Lawrence Lessig	0.10%	0.00%	Books closed on 2016-03-07
-	Deez Nuts	0.10%	0.00%	Books closed on 2016-03-07
-	Kanye West	0.10%	0.00%	Books closed on 2016-03-07
-	Bob McDonnell	0.02%	-0.01%	Books closed on 2016-03-07
-	John Hickenlooper	0.01%	0.00%	Books closed on 2016-03-07
-	Amy Klobuchar	0.01%	0.00%	Books closed on 2016-03-07
-	Brian Schweitzer	0.01%	0.00%	Books closed on 2016-03-07
-	Evan Bayh	0.01%	0.00%	Books closed on 2016-03-07
-	Eric Cantor	0.01%	0.00%	Books closed on 2016-03-07
-	Michelle Obama	0.01%	0.00%	Books closed on 2016-03-07
-	Michele Bachmann	0.01%	0.00%	Books closed on 2016-03-07
-	Ron Paul	0.01%	0.00%	Books closed on 2016-03-07
-	Herman Cain	0.01%	0.00%	Books closed on 2016-03-07
-	Mike Pence	0.01%	0.00%	Books closed on 2016-03-07
-	Mitch Daniels	0.01%	0.00%	Books closed on 2016-03-07
-	Kathleen Sebelius	0.01%	0.00%	Books closed on 2016-03-07
-	Tim Kaine	0.01%	0.00%	Books closed on 2016-03-07
-	John Kerry	0.01%	-0.01%	Books closed on 2016-03-07
-	George Clooney	0.01%	0.00%	Books closed on 2016-03-07
-	Lindsey Graham	0.01%	-0.02%	Books closed on 2016-03-07
-	Howard Stern	0.01%	0.00%	Books closed on 2016-03-07
-	Julian Castro	0.01%	0.00%	Books closed on 2016-03-07

Holyrood 2016 result predictions given polling (2016-03-03 update)

Current polling:

Moving average of latest polls for constituency vote:

Party	Vote Share (%)
SNP	53.63%
Labour	21.70%
Conservative	14.79%
Liberal Democrat	5.33%
Green	2.10%
UKIP	1.60%
Scottish Christian	0.68%
CISTA	0.22%
Scottish Socialist	0.17%
TUSC	0.12%
Solidarity	0.02%

(27857 samples over 32 polls)

Moving average of latest polls for regional list vote:

Party	Vote Share (%)
SNP	46.59%
Labour	20.92%
Conservative	14.22%
Green	7.70%
Liberal Democrat	5.82%
UKIP	3.04%
Scottish Socialist	1.21%
TUSC	0.48%
Scottish Christian	0.35%
Solidarity	0.17%
BNP	0.14%
CISTA	0.12%
Socialist Labour	0.12%
Scottish Pensioners	0.12%

(27667 samples over 32 polls)

Scotland Overall Summary:

Predicted outcome of Holyrood 2016 election given current polling:

	SNP	Labour	Conservative	Liberal Democrat	Green	Margo MacDonald
Constituency Seats	73 (+20)	0 (-15)	0 (-3)	0 (-2)	0 (n/c)	0 (n/c)
List Seats	1 (-15)	26 (+4)	16 (+4)	6 (+3)	7 (+5)	0 (-1)
Total Seats	74 (+5)	26 (-11)	16 (+1)	6 (+1)	7 (+5)	0 (-1)

Candidate names go here:

	SNP	Labour	Conservative	Green	Liberal Democrat
1	Aileen Campbell (Clydesdale)	Alex Rowley (Mid Scotland and Fife list)	Adam Tomkins (Glasgow list)	Alison Johnstone (Lothian list)	Alex Cole-Hamilton (Lothian list)
2	Aileen McLeod (Galloway & West Dumfries)	Anas Sarwar (Glasgow list)	Alex Johnstone (North East Scotland list)	Andy Wightman (Lothian list)	Jamie Stone (Highlands and Islands list)
3	Alasdair Allan (Nah h-Eilanan an Iar)	Bill Butler (Glasgow list)	Alexander Burnett (North East Scotland list)	John Finnie (Highlands and Islands list)	Jim Hume (South Scotland list)
4	Alex Neil (Airdrie & Shotts)	Claire Baker (Mid Scotland and Fife list)	Douglas Ross (Highlands and Islands list)	Maggie Chapman (North East Scotland list)	Kate Stephen (Highlands and Islands list)
5	Alison Dickie (Edinburgh Central)	Claudia Beamish (South Scotland list)	Edward Mountain (Highlands and Islands list)	Mark Ruskell (Mid Scotland and Fife list)	Mike Rumbles (North East Scotland list)
6	Andy Doig (Renfrewshire South)	Colin Smyth (South Scotland list)	Jackson Carlaw (West Scotland list)	Patrick Harvie (Glasgow list)	Willie Rennie (Mid Scotland and Fife list)
7	Angela Constance (Almond Valley)	Craig Martin (Central Scotland list)	Jamie Greene (West Scotland list)	Ross Greer (West Scotland list)	-
8	Angus MacDonald (Falkirk East)	David Stewart (Highlands and Islands list)	John Scott (South Scotland list)	-	-
9	Annabel Ewing (Cowdenbeath)	Elaine Smith (Central Scotland list)	Liz Smith (Mid Scotland and Fife list)	-	-
10	Ash Denham (Edinburgh Eastern)	Iain Gray (South Scotland list)	Margaret Mitchell (Central Scotland list)	-	-
11	Ben Macpherson (Edinburgh Northern & Leith)	Jackie Baillie (West Scotland list)	Miles Briggs (Lothian list)	-	-
12	Bill Kidd (Glasgow Anniesland)	James Kelly (Glasgow list)	Murdo Fraser (Mid Scotland and Fife list)	-	-
13	Bob Doris (Glasgow Maryhill & Springburn)	Jenny Marra (North East Scotland list)	Oliver Mundell (South Scotland list)	-	-
14	Bruce Crawford (Stirling)	Johann Lamont (Glasgow list)	Rachael Hamilton (South Scotland list)	-	-
15	Christina McKelvie (Hamilton, Larkhall & Stonehouse)	Ken MacIntosh (West Scotland list)	Ross Thomson (North East Scotland list)	-	-
16	Christine Grahame (Midlothian South, Tweeddale & Lauderdale)	Kezia Dugdale (Lothian list)	Ruth Davidson (Lothian list)	-	-
17	Clare Adamson (Motherwell & Wishaw)	Lewis MacDonald (North East Scotland list)	-	-	-
18	Clare Haughey (Rutherglen)	Mark Griffin (Central Scotland list)	-	-	-
19	Colin Beattie (Midlothian North & Musselburgh)	Mary Fee (West Scotland list)	-	-	-
20	DJ Johnston-Smith (East Lothian)	Monica Lennon (Central Scotland list)	-	-	-
21	Danus Skene (Shetland Islands)	Neil Bibby (West Scotland list)	-	-	-
22	David Torrance (Kirkcaldy)	Neil Findlay (Lothian list)	-	-	-
23	Dennis Robertson (Aberdeenshire West)	Pauline McNeill (Glasgow list)	-	-	-
24	Derek Mackay (Renfrewshire North & West)	Rhoda Grant (Highlands and Islands list)	-	-	-
25	Donna Heddle (Orkney Islands)	Richard Leonard (Central Scotland list)	-	-	-
26	Fergus Ewing (Inverness & Nairn)	Thomas Docherty (Mid Scotland and Fife list)	-	-	-
27	Fiona Hyslop (Linlithgow)	-	-	-	-
28	Fulton MacGregor (Coatbridge & Chryston)	-	-	-	-
29	Gail Robertson (Dumbarton)	-	-	-	-
30	Gail Ross (Caithness Sutherland & Ross)	-	-	-	-
31	George Adam (Paisley)	-	-	-	-
32	Gil Paterson (Clydebank & Milngavie)	-	-	-	-
33	Gillian Martin (Aberdeenshire East)	-	-	-	-
34	Gordon Macdonald (Edinburgh Pentlands)	-	-	-	-
35	Graeme Dey (Angus South)	-	-	-	-
36	Humza Yousaf (Glasgow Pollok)	-	-	-	-
37	Ivan McKee (Glasgow Provan)	-	-	-	-
38	James Dornan (Glasgow Cathcart)	-	-	-	-
39	Jamie Hepburn (Cumbernauld & Kilsyth)	-	-	-	-
40	Jeane Freeman (Carrick, Cumnock & Doon Valley)	-	-	-	-
41	Jen Dunn (Ayr)	-	-	-	-
42	Jenny Gilruth (Mid Fife & Glenrothes)	-	-	-	-
43	Jim Eadie (Edinburgh Southern)	-	-	-	-
44	Joan McAlpine (Dumfriesshire)	-	-	-	-
45	Joe FitzPatrick (Dundee City West)	-	-	-	-
46	John Mason (Glasgow Shettleston)	-	-	-	-
47	John Swinney (Perthshire North)	-	-	-	-
48	Katie Forbes (Skye, Lochaber & Badenoch)	-	-	-	-
49	Keith Brown (Clackmannanshire & Dunblane)	-	-	-	-
50	Kenny Gibson (Cunninghame North)	-	-	-	-
51	Kevin Stewart (Aberdeen Central)	-	-	-	-
52	Linda Fabiani (East Kilbride)	-	-	-	-
53	Mairi Evans (Angus North & Mearns)	-	-	-	-
54	Mark McDonald (Aberdeen Donside)	-	-	-	-
55	Maureen Watt (Aberdeen South & North Kincardine)	-	-	-	-
56	Michael Matheson (Falkirk West)	-	-	-	-
57	Mike Russell (Argyll & Bute)	-	-	-	-
58	Nicola Sturgeon (Glasgow Southside)	-	-	-	-
59	Paul Wheelhouse (Ettrick, Roxburgh & Berwickshire)	-	-	-	-
60	Richard Lochhead (Moray)	-	-	-	-
61	Richard Lyle (Uddingston & Bellshill)	-	-	-	-
62	Roderick Campbell (North East Fife)	-	-	-	-
63	Rona Mackay (Strathkelvin & Bearsden)	-	-	-	-
64	Roseanna Cunningham (Perthshire South & Kinross-shire)	-	-	-	-
65	Ruth Maguire (Cunninghame South)	-	-	-	-
66	Sandra White (Glasgow Kelvin)	-	-	-	-
67	Shirley-Anne Somerville (Dunfermline)	-	-	-	-
68	Shona Robison (Dundee City East)	-	-	-	-
69	Sophia Coyle (Central Scotland list)	-	-	-	-
70	Stewart Maxwell (Eastwood)	-	-	-	-
71	Stewart Stevenson (Banffshire & Buchan Coast)	-	-	-	-
72	Stuart McMillan (Greenock & Inverclyde)	-	-	-	-
73	Toni Giugliano (Edinburgh Western)	-	-	-	-
74	Willie Coffey (Kilmarnock & Irvine Valley)	-	-	-	-

Central Scotland

	SNP	Labour	Conservative	Liberal Democrat	Green
Constituency Seats	9 (+3)	0 (-3)	0 (n/c)	0 (n/c)	0 (n/c)
List Seats	1 (-2)	5 (+2)	1 (n/c)	0 (n/c)	0 (n/c)
Total Seats	10 (+1)	5 (-1)	1 (n/c)	0 (n/c)	0 (n/c)

	SNP	Labour	Conservative
1	Alex Neil (Airdrie & Shotts)	Craig Martin (Central Scotland list)	Margaret Mitchell (Central Scotland list)
2	Angus MacDonald (Falkirk East)	Elaine Smith (Central Scotland list)	-
3	Christina McKelvie (Hamilton, Larkhall & Stonehouse)	Mark Griffin (Central Scotland list)	-
4	Clare Adamson (Motherwell & Wishaw)	Monica Lennon (Central Scotland list)	-
5	Fulton MacGregor (Coatbridge & Chryston)	Richard Leonard (Central Scotland list)	-
6	Jamie Hepburn (Cumbernauld & Kilsyth)	-	-
7	Linda Fabiani (East Kilbride)	-	-
8	Michael Matheson (Falkirk West)	-	-
9	Richard Lyle (Uddingston & Bellshill)	-	-
10	Sophia Coyle (Central Scotland list)	-	-

Moving average of poll subsamples for Central Scotland constituency vote:

Party	Vote Share (%)
SNP	60.16%
Labour	24.50%
Conservative	9.00%
Liberal Democrat	2.45%
Green	2.23%
UKIP	1.15%
TUSC	0.00%
Scottish Socialist	0.00%
CISTA	0.00%
Scottish Christian	0.00%

(1359 samples over 15 polls)

Predicted Central Scotland Constituency results

Constituency	2011 Winner	2016 Prediction
Airdrie & Shotts	SNP (50.2%)	SNP (62.3%)
Coatbridge & Chryston	Labour (52.2%)	SNP (57.6%)
Cumbernauld & Kilsyth	SNP (53.8%)	SNP (64.1%)
East Kilbride	SNP (48.0%)	SNP (60.5%)
Falkirk East	SNP (50.8%)	SNP (62.3%)
Falkirk West	SNP (55.3%)	SNP (64.4%)
Hamilton, Larkhall & Stonehouse	SNP (48.1%)	SNP (60.8%)
Motherwell & Wishaw	Labour (43.8%)	SNP (55.5%)
Uddingston & Bellshill	Labour (46.1%)	SNP (58.7%)

Moving average of poll subsamples for Central Scotland regional vote:

Party	Vote Share (%)
SNP	54.18%
Labour	25.62%
Conservative	7.81%
Green	5.49%
UKIP	2.93%
Liberal Democrat	2.62%
Scottish Socialist	0.78%
Solidarity	0.16%
TUSC	0.00%
Socialist Labour	0.00%
Scottish Pensioners	0.00%
CISTA	0.00%
Scottish Christian	0.00%

(1346 samples over 15 polls)

Predicted Central Scotland List Vote share

Party	2011 List vote (%)	Predicted List vote (%)
SNP	46.35%	50.71%
Labour	35.31%	26.39%
Conservative	6.37%	7.44%
Green	2.41%	4.78%
Pensioners	2.48%	2.45%
UKIP	0.54%	2.32%
Liberal Democrat	1.42%	2.06%
Christian Party	1.36%	1.34%
Scottish Socialist	0.35%	0.89%
Others	0.81%	0.80%
Independant	0.35%	0.35%
Solidarity	0.24%	0.22%
BNP	0.95%	0.17%
Socialist Labour	1.06%	0.08%

Predicted Central Scotland additional members:

#	2011 Result	2016 Prediction
1	Labour	Labour (Richard Leonard)
2	Labour	Labour (Monica Lennon)
3	SNP	Labour (Mark Griffin)
4	Conservative	Conservative (Margaret Mitchell)
5	Labour	Labour (Elaine Smith)
6	SNP	Labour (Craig Martin)
7	SNP	SNP (Alex Neil)

Mid Scotland and Fife

	SNP	Labour	Conservative	Liberal Democrat	Green
Constituency Seats	9 (+1)	0 (-1)	0 (n/c)	0 (n/c)	0 (n/c)
List Seats	0 (-1)	3 (n/c)	2 (n/c)	1 (n/c)	1 (+1)
Total Seats	9 (n/c)	3 (-1)	2 (n/c)	1 (n/c)	1 (+1)

	SNP	Labour	Conservative	Green	Liberal Democrat
1	Annabel Ewing (Cowdenbeath)	Alex Rowley (Mid Scotland and Fife list)	Liz Smith (Mid Scotland and Fife list)	Mark Ruskell (Mid Scotland and Fife list)	Willie Rennie (Mid Scotland and Fife list)
2	Bruce Crawford (Stirling)	Claire Baker (Mid Scotland and Fife list)	Murdo Fraser (Mid Scotland and Fife list)	-	-
3	David Torrance (Kirkcaldy)	Thomas Docherty (Mid Scotland and Fife list)	-	-	-
4	Jenny Gilruth (Mid Fife & Glenrothes)	-	-	-	-
5	John Swinney (Perthshire North)	-	-	-	-
6	Keith Brown (Clackmannanshire & Dunblane)	-	-	-	-
7	Roderick Campbell (North East Fife)	-	-	-	-
8	Roseanna Cunningham (Perthshire South & Kinross-shire)	-	-	-	-
9	Shirley-Anne Somerville (Dunfermline)	-	-	-	-

Moving average of poll subsamples for Mid Scotland and Fife constituency vote:

Party	Vote Share (%)
SNP	54.55%
Labour	21.55%
Conservative	14.35%
Liberal Democrat	6.12%
UKIP	2.00%
Green	1.52%
CISTA	0.89%
TUSC	0.00%
Scottish Socialist	0.00%
Scottish Christian	0.00%

(1247 samples over 15 polls)

Predicted Mid Scotland and Fife Constituency results

Constituency	2011 Winner	2016 Prediction
Clackmannanshire & Dunblane	SNP (48.3%)	SNP (57.6%)
Cowdenbeath	Labour (46.5%)	SNP (54.6%)
Dunfermline	SNP (37.6%)	SNP (53.0%)
Kirkcaldy	SNP (45.2%)	SNP (56.8%)
Mid Fife & Glenrothes	SNP (52.3%)	SNP (59.2%)
North East Fife	SNP (37.2%)	SNP (50.4%)
Perthshire North	SNP (60.8%)	SNP (61.4%)
Perthshire South & Kinross-shire	SNP (51.5%)	SNP (57.3%)
Stirling	SNP (48.9%)	SNP (57.0%)

Moving average of poll subsamples for Mid Scotland and Fife regional vote:

Party	Vote Share (%)
SNP	48.26%
Labour	20.59%
Conservative	13.10%
Green	7.29%
Liberal Democrat	6.53%
UKIP	3.15%
Socialist Labour	1.10%
Solidarity	0.50%
Scottish Socialist	0.27%
TUSC	0.00%
Scottish Pensioners	0.00%
CISTA	0.00%
Scottish Christian	0.00%

(1243 samples over 15 polls)

Predicted Mid Scotland and Fife List Vote share

Party	2011 List vote (%)	Predicted List vote (%)
SNP	45.20%	45.97%
Labour	25.03%	19.38%
Conservative	14.12%	14.00%
Green	4.23%	7.05%
Liberal Democrat	5.85%	6.26%
UKIP	1.10%	3.25%
Pensioners	1.59%	1.48%
Socialist Labour	0.69%	0.59%
Scottish Socialist	0.32%	0.57%
Independant	0.57%	0.53%
Solidarity	0.08%	0.29%
Christian Party	0.30%	0.28%
Others	0.25%	0.23%
BNP	0.67%	0.11%

Predicted Mid Scotland and Fife additional members:

#	2011 Result	2016 Prediction
1	Conservative	Labour (Alex Rowley)
2	Labour	Conservative (Murdo Fraser)
3	Labour	Labour (Claire Baker)
4	Conservative	Green (Mark Ruskell)
5	Labour	Conservative (Liz Smith)
6	Liberal Democrat	Labour (Thomas Docherty)
7	SNP	Liberal Democrat (Willie Rennie)

Lothian

	SNP	Labour	Conservative	Liberal Democrat	Green	Margo MacDonald
Constituency Seats	9 (+1)	0 (-1)	0 (n/c)	0 (n/c)	0 (n/c)	0 (n/c)
List Seats	0 (n/c)	2 (-1)	2 (n/c)	1 (+1)	2 (+1)	0 (-1)
Total Seats	9 (+1)	2 (-2)	2 (n/c)	1 (+1)	2 (+1)	0 (-1)

	SNP	Labour	Conservative	Green	Liberal Democrat
1	Alison Dickie (Edinburgh Central)	Kezia Dugdale (Lothian list)	Miles Briggs (Lothian list)	Alison Johnstone (Lothian list)	Alex Cole-Hamilton (Lothian list)
2	Angela Constance (Almond Valley)	Neil Findlay (Lothian list)	Ruth Davidson (Lothian list)	Andy Wightman (Lothian list)	-
3	Ash Denham (Edinburgh Eastern)	-	-	-	-
4	Ben Macpherson (Edinburgh Northern & Leith)	-	-	-	-
5	Colin Beattie (Midlothian North & Musselburgh)	-	-	-	-
6	Fiona Hyslop (Linlithgow)	-	-	-	-
7	Gordon Macdonald (Edinburgh Pentlands)	-	-	-	-
8	Jim Eadie (Edinburgh Southern)	-	-	-	-
9	Toni Giugliano (Edinburgh Western)	-	-	-	-

Moving average of poll subsamples for Lothian constituency vote:

Party	Vote Share (%)
SNP	49.49%
Labour	24.34%
Conservative	15.49%
Liberal Democrat	6.93%
Green	3.60%
Scottish Christian	1.88%
UKIP	1.30%
TUSC	0.00%
Scottish Socialist	0.00%
CISTA	0.00%

(1688 samples over 15 polls)

Predicted Lothian Constituency results

Constituency	2011 Winner	2016 Prediction
Almond Valley	SNP (54.3%)	SNP (58.2%)
Edinburgh Central	SNP (32.7%)	SNP (47.0%)
Edinburgh Eastern	SNP (47.4%)	SNP (55.2%)
Edinburgh Northern & Leith	Labour (41.6%)	SNP (51.3%)
Edinburgh Pentlands	SNP (37.3%)	SNP (47.9%)
Edinburgh Southern	SNP (29.4%)	SNP (44.9%)
Edinburgh Western	SNP (35.8%)	SNP (48.7%)
Linlithgow	SNP (49.8%)	SNP (55.8%)
Midlothian North & Musselburgh	SNP (47.2%)	SNP (54.0%)

Moving average of poll subsamples for Lothian regional vote:

Party	Vote Share (%)
SNP	40.45%
Labour	19.19%
Conservative	14.17%
Green	13.28%
Liberal Democrat	9.34%
UKIP	3.05%
TUSC	0.63%
CISTA	0.58%
Scottish Socialist	0.41%
Solidarity	0.00%
Socialist Labour	0.00%
Scottish Pensioners	0.00%
Scottish Christian	0.00%

(1697 samples over 15 polls)

Predicted Lothian List Vote share

Party	2011 List vote (%)	Predicted List vote (%)
SNP	39.18%	40.60%
Labour	24.91%	19.33%
Conservative	11.66%	13.67%
Green	7.59%	13.22%
Liberal Democrat	5.50%	7.68%
UKIP	0.64%	2.58%
Pensioners	1.14%	1.13%
Scottish Socialist	0.42%	0.80%
Others	0.44%	0.44%
Christian Party	0.32%	0.32%
BNP	0.70%	0.12%
Solidarity	0.12%	0.07%
Socialist Labour	0.59%	0.04%
Margo MacDonald	6.79%	0.00%

Predicted Lothian additional members:

#	2011 Result	2016 Prediction
1	Labour	Labour (Kezia Dugdale)
2	Conservative	Conservative (Ruth Davidson)
3	Labour	Green (Alison Johnstone)
4	Green	Labour (Neil Findlay)
5	Margo MacDonald	Liberal Democrat (Alex Cole-Hamilton)
6	Labour	Conservative (Miles Briggs)
7	Conservative	Green (Andy Wightman)

Highlands and Islands

	SNP	Labour	Conservative	Liberal Democrat	Green
Constituency Seats	8 (+2)	0 (n/c)	0 (n/c)	0 (-2)	0 (n/c)
List Seats	0 (-3)	2 (n/c)	2 (n/c)	2 (+2)	1 (+1)
Total Seats	8 (-1)	2 (n/c)	2 (n/c)	2 (n/c)	1 (+1)

	SNP	Labour	Conservative	Liberal Democrat	Green
1	Alasdair Allan (Nah h-Eilanan an Iar)	David Stewart (Highlands and Islands list)	Douglas Ross (Highlands and Islands list)	Jamie Stone (Highlands and Islands list)	John Finnie (Highlands and Islands list)
2	Danus Skene (Shetland Islands)	Rhoda Grant (Highlands and Islands list)	Edward Mountain (Highlands and Islands list)	Kate Stephen (Highlands and Islands list)	-
3	Donna Heddle (Orkney Islands)	-	-	-	-
4	Fergus Ewing (Inverness & Nairn)	-	-	-	-
5	Gail Ross (Caithness Sutherland & Ross)	-	-	-	-
6	Katie Forbes (Skye, Lochaber & Badenoch)	-	-	-	-
7	Mike Russell (Argyll & Bute)	-	-	-	-
8	Richard Lochhead (Moray)	-	-	-	-

Moving average of poll subsamples for Highlands and Islands constituency vote:

Party	Vote Share (%)
SNP	55.87%
Labour	14.77%
Conservative	11.60%
Liberal Democrat	10.46%
Scottish Christian	4.35%
UKIP	1.25%
Green	1.13%
TUSC	0.00%
Scottish Socialist	0.00%
CISTA	0.00%

(881 samples over 15 polls)

Predicted Highlands and Islands Constituency results

Constituency	2011 Winner	2016 Prediction
Argyll & Bute	SNP (50.6%)	SNP (58.4%)
Caithness Sutherland & Ross	SNP (48.4%)	SNP (59.9%)
Inverness & Nairn	SNP (51.5%)	SNP (59.6%)
Moray	SNP (58.8%)	SNP (61.8%)
Nah h-Eilanan an Iar	SNP (65.3%)	SNP (68.0%)
Orkney Islands	Liberal Democrat (35.7%)	SNP (40.1%)
Shetland Islands	Liberal Democrat (47.5%)	SNP (31.8%)
Skye, Lochaber & Badenoch	SNP (46.2%)	SNP (58.3%)

Moving average of poll subsamples for Highlands and Islands regional vote:

Party	Vote Share (%)
SNP	42.98%
Labour	14.85%
Conservative	12.95%
Liberal Democrat	12.11%
Green	9.70%
UKIP	5.14%
Scottish Christian	2.95%
TUSC	0.00%
Scottish Socialist	0.00%
Solidarity	0.00%
Socialist Labour	0.00%
Scottish Pensioners	0.00%
CISTA	0.00%

(831 samples over 15 polls)

Predicted Highlands and Islands List Vote share

Party	2011 List vote (%)	Predicted List vote (%)
SNP	47.53%	43.62%
Labour	14.46%	12.45%
Conservative	11.64%	12.36%
Liberal Democrat	12.14%	12.03%
Green	5.07%	8.77%
UKIP	1.88%	5.34%
Christian Party	1.98%	1.76%
Others	1.93%	1.72%
Pensioners	1.55%	1.38%
Scottish Socialist	0.28%	0.37%
BNP	0.63%	0.10%
Solidarity	0.11%	0.06%
Socialist Labour	0.79%	0.05%
Independant	0.00%	0.00%

Predicted Highlands and Islands additional members:

#	2011 Result	2016 Prediction
1	Labour	Labour (Rhoda Grant)
2	Conservative	Conservative (Douglas Ross)
3	Labour	Liberal Democrat (Jamie Stone)
4	SNP	Green (John Finnie)
5	SNP	Labour (David Stewart)
6	Conservative	Conservative (Edward Mountain)
7	SNP	Liberal Democrat (Kate Stephen)

North East Scotland

	SNP	Labour	Conservative	Liberal Democrat	Green
Constituency Seats	10 (n/c)	0 (n/c)	0 (n/c)	0 (n/c)	0 (n/c)
List Seats	0 (-1)	2 (-1)	3 (+1)	1 (n/c)	1 (+1)
Total Seats	10 (-1)	2 (-1)	3 (+1)	1 (n/c)	1 (+1)

	SNP	Conservative	Labour	Green	Liberal Democrat
1	Dennis Robertson (Aberdeenshire West)	Alex Johnstone (North East Scotland list)	Jenny Marra (North East Scotland list)	Maggie Chapman (North East Scotland list)	Mike Rumbles (North East Scotland list)
2	Gillian Martin (Aberdeenshire East)	Alexander Burnett (North East Scotland list)	Lewis MacDonald (North East Scotland list)	-	-
3	Graeme Dey (Angus South)	Ross Thomson (North East Scotland list)	-	-	-
4	Joe FitzPatrick (Dundee City West)	-	-	-	-
5	Kevin Stewart (Aberdeen Central)	-	-	-	-
6	Mairi Evans (Angus North & Mearns)	-	-	-	-
7	Mark McDonald (Aberdeen Donside)	-	-	-	-
8	Maureen Watt (Aberdeen South & North Kincardine)	-	-	-	-
9	Shona Robison (Dundee City East)	-	-	-	-
10	Stewart Stevenson (Banffshire & Buchan Coast)	-	-	-	-

Moving average of poll subsamples for North East Scotland constituency vote:

Party	Vote Share (%)
SNP	60.84%
Labour	16.53%
Conservative	16.24%
Liberal Democrat	4.64%
Green	1.38%
UKIP	0.86%
TUSC	0.00%
Scottish Socialist	0.00%
CISTA	0.00%
Scottish Christian	0.00%

(1411 samples over 15 polls)

Predicted North East Scotland Constituency results

Constituency	2011 Winner	2016 Prediction
Aberdeen Central	SNP (40.0%)	SNP (56.0%)
Aberdeen Donside	SNP (55.3%)	SNP (63.1%)
Aberdeen South & North Kincardine	SNP (41.7%)	SNP (54.4%)
Aberdeenshire East	SNP (64.5%)	SNP (67.1%)
Aberdeenshire West	SNP (42.6%)	SNP (56.8%)
Angus North & Mearns	SNP (54.8%)	SNP (61.7%)
Angus South	SNP (58.5%)	SNP (62.0%)
Banffshire & Buchan Coast	SNP (67.2%)	SNP (67.5%)
Dundee City East	SNP (64.2%)	SNP (67.5%)
Dundee City West	SNP (57.6%)	SNP (65.2%)

Moving average of poll subsamples for North East Scotland regional vote:

Party	Vote Share (%)
SNP	54.72%
Labour	15.43%
Conservative	15.09%
Green	6.26%
Liberal Democrat	4.82%
UKIP	3.10%
TUSC	2.36%
Scottish Socialist	0.25%
Solidarity	0.00%
Socialist Labour	0.00%
Scottish Pensioners	0.00%
CISTA	0.00%
Scottish Christian	0.00%

(1389 samples over 15 polls)

Predicted North East Scotland List Vote share

Party	2011 List vote (%)	Predicted List vote (%)
SNP	52.71%	52.54%
Conservative	14.11%	14.88%
Labour	16.44%	13.60%
Green	3.90%	6.23%
Liberal Democrat	6.81%	5.87%
UKIP	0.93%	2.95%
Pensioners	1.66%	1.52%
Christian Party	0.81%	0.74%
Scottish Socialist	0.42%	0.68%
Independant	0.44%	0.41%
Others	0.42%	0.38%
BNP	0.72%	0.12%
Solidarity	0.11%	0.06%
Socialist Labour	0.55%	0.04%

Predicted North East Scotland additional members:

#	2011 Result	2016 Prediction
1	Labour	Conservative (Alex Johnstone)
2	Conservative	Labour (Jenny Marra)
3	Labour	Conservative (Alexander Burnett)
4	Conservative	Labour (Lewis MacDonald)
5	Liberal Democrat	Green (Maggie Chapman)
6	Labour	Liberal Democrat (Mike Rumbles)
7	SNP	Conservative (Ross Thomson)

West Scotland

	SNP	Labour	Conservative	Liberal Democrat	Green
Constituency Seats	10 (+4)	0 (-4)	0 (n/c)	0 (n/c)	0 (n/c)
List Seats	0 (-2)	4 (+1)	2 (n/c)	0 (n/c)	1 (+1)
Total Seats	10 (+2)	4 (-3)	2 (n/c)	0 (n/c)	1 (+1)

	SNP	Labour	Conservative	Green
1	Andy Doig (Renfrewshire South)	Jackie Baillie (West Scotland list)	Jackson Carlaw (West Scotland list)	Ross Greer (West Scotland list)
2	Derek Mackay (Renfrewshire North & West)	Ken MacIntosh (West Scotland list)	Jamie Greene (West Scotland list)	-
3	Gail Robertson (Dumbarton)	Mary Fee (West Scotland list)	-	-
4	George Adam (Paisley)	Neil Bibby (West Scotland list)	-	-
5	Gil Paterson (Clydebank & Milngavie)	-	-	-
6	Kenny Gibson (Cunninghame North)	-	-	-
7	Rona Mackay (Strathkelvin & Bearsden)	-	-	-
8	Ruth Maguire (Cunninghame South)	-	-	-
9	Stewart Maxwell (Eastwood)	-	-	-
10	Stuart McMillan (Greenock & Inverclyde)	-	-	-

Moving average of poll subsamples for West Scotland constituency vote:

Party	Vote Share (%)
SNP	57.60%
Labour	23.06%
Conservative	13.93%
Liberal Democrat	2.41%
UKIP	2.37%
Green	1.58%
Scottish Christian	0.93%
Scottish Socialist	0.87%
TUSC	0.00%
CISTA	0.00%

(1356 samples over 15 polls)

Predicted West Scotland Constituency results

Constituency	2011 Winner	2016 Prediction
Clydebank & Milngavie	SNP (43.3%)	SNP (57.0%)
Cunninghame North	SNP (52.6%)	SNP (60.9%)
Cunninghame South	SNP (49.8%)	SNP (60.2%)
Dumbarton	Labour (44.1%)	SNP (53.2%)
Eastwood	Labour (39.7%)	SNP (44.9%)
Greenock & Inverclyde	Labour (43.9%)	SNP (56.7%)
Paisley	SNP (42.6%)	SNP (56.8%)
Renfrewshire North & West	SNP (41.9%)	SNP (55.2%)
Renfrewshire South	Labour (48.1%)	SNP (54.4%)
Strathkelvin & Bearsden	SNP (42.2%)	SNP (56.1%)

Moving average of poll subsamples for West Scotland regional vote:

Party	Vote Share (%)
SNP	50.56%
Labour	24.22%
Conservative	12.76%
Green	6.00%
Liberal Democrat	2.75%
UKIP	2.73%
Scottish Christian	0.83%
Solidarity	0.10%
Scottish Socialist	0.06%
TUSC	0.00%
Socialist Labour	0.00%
Scottish Pensioners	0.00%
CISTA	0.00%

(1340 samples over 15 polls)

Predicted West Scotland List Vote share

Party	2011 List vote (%)	Predicted List vote (%)
SNP	41.54%	46.27%
Labour	32.77%	24.59%
Conservative	12.75%	13.42%
Green	2.98%	5.51%
Liberal Democrat	3.24%	3.12%
UKIP	0.71%	2.49%
Pensioners	1.69%	1.64%
Scottish Socialist	0.62%	0.90%
Christian Party	0.87%	0.85%
Others	0.73%	0.71%
Independant	0.16%	0.16%
Solidarity	0.16%	0.14%
BNP	0.77%	0.13%
Socialist Labour	1.01%	0.07%

Predicted West Scotland additional members:

#	2011 Result	2016 Prediction
1	Conservative	Labour (Jackie Baillie)
2	Labour	Conservative (Jackson Carlaw)
3	Conservative	Labour (Neil Bibby)
4	SNP	Labour (Mary Fee)
5	Labour	Conservative (Jamie Greene)
6	SNP	Labour (Ken MacIntosh)
7	Labour	Green (Ross Greer)

South Scotland

	SNP	Labour	Conservative	Liberal Democrat	Green
Constituency Seats	9 (+5)	0 (-2)	0 (-3)	0 (n/c)	0 (n/c)
List Seats	0 (-4)	3 (+1)	3 (+3)	1 (n/c)	0 (n/c)
Total Seats	9 (+1)	3 (-1)	3 (n/c)	1 (n/c)	0 (n/c)

	SNP	Labour	Conservative	Liberal Democrat
1	Aileen Campbell (Clydesdale)	Claudia Beamish (South Scotland list)	John Scott (South Scotland list)	Jim Hume (South Scotland list)
2	Aileen McLeod (Galloway & West Dumfries)	Colin Smyth (South Scotland list)	Oliver Mundell (South Scotland list)	-
3	Christine Grahame (Midlothian South, Tweeddale & Lauderdale)	Iain Gray (South Scotland list)	Rachael Hamilton (South Scotland list)	-
4	DJ Johnston-Smith (East Lothian)	-	-	-
5	Jeane Freeman (Carrick, Cumnock & Doon Valley)	-	-	-
6	Jen Dunn (Ayr)	-	-	-
7	Joan McAlpine (Dumfriesshire)	-	-	-
8	Paul Wheelhouse (Ettrick, Roxburgh & Berwickshire)	-	-	-
9	Willie Coffey (Kilmarnock & Irvine Valley)	-	-	-

Moving average of poll subsamples for South Scotland constituency vote:

Party	Vote Share (%)
SNP	50.26%
Conservative	21.32%
Labour	20.34%
Liberal Democrat	6.10%
UKIP	0.73%
Green	0.46%
TUSC	0.00%
Scottish Socialist	0.00%
CISTA	0.00%
Scottish Christian	0.00%

(1090 samples over 15 polls)

Predicted South Scotland Constituency results

Constituency	2011 Winner	2016 Prediction
Ayr	Conservative (38.9%)	SNP (46.4%)
Carrick, Cumnock & Doon Valley	SNP (46.2%)	SNP (53.8%)
Clydesdale	SNP (49.9%)	SNP (57.3%)
Dumfriesshire	Labour (39.6%)	SNP (42.3%)
East Lothian	Labour (39.0%)	SNP (49.9%)
Ettrick, Roxburgh & Berwickshire	Conservative (44.9%)	SNP (41.1%)
Galloway & West Dumfries	Conservative (36.9%)	SNP (45.8%)
Kilmarnock & Irvine Valley	SNP (53.2%)	SNP (57.5%)
Midlothian South, Tweeddale & Lauderdale	SNP (43.5%)	SNP (52.9%)

Moving average of poll subsamples for South Scotland regional vote:

Party	Vote Share (%)
SNP	45.82%
Labour	18.95%
Conservative	15.14%
Liberal Democrat	8.14%
Green	5.64%
UKIP	5.33%
Scottish Pensioners	1.59%
Solidarity	0.14%
Scottish Socialist	0.10%
TUSC	0.00%
Socialist Labour	0.00%
CISTA	0.00%
Scottish Christian	0.00%

(1105 samples over 15 polls)

Predicted South Scotland List Vote share

Party	2011 List vote (%)	Predicted List vote (%)
SNP	40.98%	43.24%
Labour	25.32%	18.93%
Conservative	19.49%	18.12%
Liberal Democrat	5.41%	6.90%
Green	3.06%	5.35%
UKIP	1.16%	4.48%
Pensioners	1.58%	1.50%
Christian Party	0.69%	0.65%
Scottish Socialist	0.25%	0.39%
Solidarity	0.29%	0.24%
BNP	0.72%	0.12%
Socialist Labour	1.04%	0.07%
Independant	0.00%	0.00%
Others	0.00%	0.00%

Predicted South Scotland additional members:

#	2011 Result	2016 Prediction
1	Labour	Labour (Iain Gray)
2	SNP	Conservative (John Scott)
3	SNP	Labour (Claudia Beamish)
4	Labour	Conservative (Oliver Mundell)
5	SNP	Liberal Democrat (Jim Hume)
6	Liberal Democrat	Labour (Colin Smyth)
7	SNP	Conservative (Rachael Hamilton)

Glasgow

	SNP	Labour	Conservative	Liberal Democrat	Green
Constituency Seats	9 (+4)	0 (-4)	0 (n/c)	0 (n/c)	0 (n/c)
List Seats	0 (-2)	5 (+2)	1 (n/c)	0 (n/c)	1 (n/c)
Total Seats	9 (+2)	5 (-2)	1 (n/c)	0 (n/c)	1 (n/c)

	SNP	Labour	Green	Conservative
1	Bill Kidd (Glasgow Anniesland)	Anas Sarwar (Glasgow list)	Patrick Harvie (Glasgow list)	Adam Tomkins (Glasgow list)
2	Bob Doris (Glasgow Maryhill & Springburn)	Bill Butler (Glasgow list)	-	-
3	Clare Haughey (Rutherglen)	James Kelly (Glasgow list)	-	-
4	Humza Yousaf (Glasgow Pollok)	Johann Lamont (Glasgow list)	-	-
5	Ivan McKee (Glasgow Provan)	Pauline McNeill (Glasgow list)	-	-
6	James Dornan (Glasgow Cathcart)	-	-	-
7	John Mason (Glasgow Shettleston)	-	-	-
8	Nicola Sturgeon (Glasgow Southside)	-	-	-
9	Sandra White (Glasgow Kelvin)	-	-	-

Moving average of poll subsamples for Glasgow constituency vote:

Party	Vote Share (%)
SNP	56.37%
Labour	26.49%
Conservative	9.48%
Liberal Democrat	3.62%
Green	3.52%
Scottish Socialist	0.94%
TUSC	0.89%
UKIP	0.85%
CISTA	0.77%
Scottish Christian	0.00%

(1341 samples over 15 polls)

Predicted Glasgow Constituency results

Constituency	2011 Winner	2016 Prediction
Glasgow Anniesland	SNP (43.2%)	SNP (56.3%)
Glasgow Cathcart	SNP (45.5%)	SNP (57.1%)
Glasgow Kelvin	SNP (43.3%)	SNP (56.3%)
Glasgow Maryhill & Springburn	Labour (48.1%)	SNP (56.4%)
Glasgow Pollok	Labour (47.5%)	SNP (57.8%)
Glasgow Provan	Labour (52.3%)	SNP (56.4%)
Glasgow Shettleston	SNP (47.8%)	SNP (59.3%)
Glasgow Southside	SNP (54.4%)	SNP (62.1%)
Rutherglen	Labour (46.1%)	SNP (54.0%)

Moving average of poll subsamples for Glasgow regional vote:

Party	Vote Share (%)
SNP	46.87%
Labour	25.70%
Green	9.94%
Conservative	9.45%
Liberal Democrat	3.82%
UKIP	3.18%
CISTA	1.87%
Scottish Socialist	1.00%
TUSC	0.93%
Solidarity	0.10%
Socialist Labour	0.00%
Scottish Pensioners	0.00%
Scottish Christian	0.00%

(1335 samples over 15 polls)

Predicted Glasgow List Vote share

Party	2011 List vote (%)	Predicted List vote (%)
SNP	39.82%	42.65%
Labour	34.99%	25.64%
Green	5.97%	9.80%
Conservative	6.11%	7.91%
Others	4.45%	4.23%
Liberal Democrat	2.55%	3.20%
UKIP	0.54%	2.39%
Pensioners	1.80%	1.71%
Scottish Socialist	0.65%	1.38%
Christian Party	0.72%	0.68%
BNP	1.16%	0.20%
Independant	0.16%	0.15%
Socialist Labour	1.09%	0.07%
Solidarity	0.00%	0.00%

Predicted Glasgow additional members:

#	2011 Result	2016 Prediction
1	Labour	Labour (Anas Sarwar)
2	SNP	Labour (Johann Lamont)
3	Conservative	Green (Patrick Harvie)
4	Green	Labour (James Kelly)
5	Labour	Conservative (Adam Tomkins)
6	SNP	Labour (Pauline McNeill)
7	Labour	Labour (Bill Butler)