Holyrood 2016 result predictions given polling (2016-04-10 update)

Current polling:

Moving average of latest polls for constituency vote:

Party	Vote Share (%)
SNP	53.13%
Labour	21.33%
Conservative	15.29%
Liberal Democrat	5.62%
Green	2.30%
UKIP	1.75%
Scottish Christian	0.68%
CISTA	0.22%
Scottish Socialist	0.16%
TUSC	0.12%
Solidarity	0.02%

(31172 samples over 36 polls)

Moving average of latest polls for regional list vote:

Party	Vote Share (%)
SNP	45.69%
Labour	20.33%
Conservative	14.99%
Green	8.04%
Liberal Democrat	5.86%
UKIP	3.26%
Scottish Socialist	1.21%
TUSC	0.48%
Scottish Christian	0.35%
Solidarity	0.17%
BNP	0.14%
CISTA	0.12%
Socialist Labour	0.12%
Scottish Pensioners	0.12%

(30934 samples over 36 polls)

Scotland Overall Summary:

Predicted outcome of Holyrood 2016 election given current polling:

	SNP	Labour	Conservative	Liberal Democrat	Green	Margo MacDonald	UKIP
Constituency Seats	73 (+20)	0 (-15)	0 (-3)	0 (-2)	0 (n/c)	0 (n/c)	0 (n/c)
List Seats	0 (-16)	26 (+4)	16 (+4)	5 (+2)	8 (+6)	0 (-1)	1 (+1)
Total Seats	73 (+4)	26 (-11)	16 (+1)	5 (n/c)	8 (+6)	0 (-1)	1 (+1)

Candidate names go here:

	SNP	Labour	Conservative	Green	Liberal Democrat	UKIP
1	Aileen Campbell (Clydesdale)	Alex Rowley (Mid Scotland and Fife list)	Adam Tomkins (Glasgow list)	Alison Johnstone (Lothian list)	Alex Cole-Hamilton (Lothian list)	UKIP candidate (Highlands and Islands list)
2	Aileen McLeod (Galloway & West Dumfries)	Anas Sarwar (Glasgow list)	Alex Johnstone (North East Scotland list)	Andy Wightman (Lothian list)	Jamie Stone (Highlands and Islands list)	-
3	Alasdair Allan (Nah h-Eilanan an Iar)	Bill Butler (Glasgow list)	Alexander Burnett (North East Scotland list)	John Finnie (Highlands and Islands list)	Jim Hume (South Scotland list)	-
4	Alex Neil (Airdrie & Shotts)	Claire Baker (Mid Scotland and Fife list)	Douglas Ross (Highlands and Islands list)	Kirsten Robb (Central Scotland list)	Mike Rumbles (North East Scotland list)	-
5	Alison Dickie (Edinburgh Central)	Claudia Beamish (South Scotland list)	Edward Mountain (Highlands and Islands list)	Maggie Chapman (North East Scotland list)	Willie Rennie (Mid Scotland and Fife list)	-
6	Andy Doig (Renfrewshire South)	Colin Smyth (South Scotland list)	Jackson Carlaw (West Scotland list)	Mark Ruskell (Mid Scotland and Fife list)	-	-
7	Angela Constance (Almond Valley)	Craig Martin (Central Scotland list)	Jamie Greene (West Scotland list)	Patrick Harvie (Glasgow list)	-	-
8	Angus MacDonald (Falkirk East)	David Stewart (Highlands and Islands list)	John Scott (South Scotland list)	Ross Greer (West Scotland list)	-	-
9	Annabel Ewing (Cowdenbeath)	Elaine Smith (Central Scotland list)	Liz Smith (Mid Scotland and Fife list)	-	-	-
10	Ash Denham (Edinburgh Eastern)	Iain Gray (South Scotland list)	Margaret Mitchell (Central Scotland list)	-	-	-
11	Ben Macpherson (Edinburgh Northern & Leith)	Jackie Baillie (West Scotland list)	Miles Briggs (Lothian list)	-	-	-
12	Bill Kidd (Glasgow Anniesland)	James Kelly (Glasgow list)	Murdo Fraser (Mid Scotland and Fife list)	-	-	-
13	Bob Doris (Glasgow Maryhill & Springburn)	Jenny Marra (North East Scotland list)	Oliver Mundell (South Scotland list)	-	-	-
14	Bruce Crawford (Stirling)	Johann Lamont (Glasgow list)	Rachael Hamilton (South Scotland list)	-	-	-
15	Christina McKelvie (Hamilton, Larkhall & Stonehouse)	Ken MacIntosh (West Scotland list)	Ross Thomson (North East Scotland list)	-	-	-
16	Christine Grahame (Midlothian South, Tweeddale & Lauderdale)	Kezia Dugdale (Lothian list)	Ruth Davidson (Lothian list)	-	-	-
17	Clare Adamson (Motherwell & Wishaw)	Lewis MacDonald (North East Scotland list)	-	-	-	-
18	Clare Haughey (Rutherglen)	Mark Griffin (Central Scotland list)	-	-	-	-
19	Colin Beattie (Midlothian North & Musselburgh)	Mary Fee (West Scotland list)	-	-	-	-
20	DJ Johnston-Smith (East Lothian)	Monica Lennon (Central Scotland list)	-	-	-	-
21	Danus Skene (Shetland Islands)	Neil Bibby (West Scotland list)	-	-	-	-
22	David Torrance (Kirkcaldy)	Neil Findlay (Lothian list)	-	-	-	-
23	Dennis Robertson (Aberdeenshire West)	Pauline McNeill (Glasgow list)	-	-	-	-
24	Derek Mackay (Renfrewshire North & West)	Rhoda Grant (Highlands and Islands list)	-	-	-	-
25	Donna Heddle (Orkney Islands)	Richard Leonard (Central Scotland list)	-	-	-	-
26	Fergus Ewing (Inverness & Nairn)	Thomas Docherty (Mid Scotland and Fife list)	-	-	-	-
27	Fiona Hyslop (Linlithgow)	-	-	-	-	-
28	Fulton MacGregor (Coatbridge & Chryston)	-	-	-	-	-
29	Gail Robertson (Dumbarton)	-	-	-	-	-
30	Gail Ross (Caithness Sutherland & Ross)	-	-	-	-	-
31	George Adam (Paisley)	-	-	-	-	-
32	Gil Paterson (Clydebank & Milngavie)	-	-	-	-	-
33	Gillian Martin (Aberdeenshire East)	-	-	-	-	-
34	Gordon Macdonald (Edinburgh Pentlands)	-	-	-	-	-
35	Graeme Dey (Angus South)	-	-	-	-	-
36	Humza Yousaf (Glasgow Pollok)	-	-	-	-	-
37	Ivan McKee (Glasgow Provan)	-	-	-	-	-
38	James Dornan (Glasgow Cathcart)	-	-	-	-	-
39	Jamie Hepburn (Cumbernauld & Kilsyth)	-	-	-	-	-
40	Jeane Freeman (Carrick, Cumnock & Doon Valley)	-	-	-	-	-
41	Jen Dunn (Ayr)	-	-	-	-	-
42	Jenny Gilruth (Mid Fife & Glenrothes)	-	-	-	-	-
43	Jim Eadie (Edinburgh Southern)	-	-	-	-	-
44	Joan McAlpine (Dumfriesshire)	-	-	-	-	-
45	Joe FitzPatrick (Dundee City West)	-	-	-	-	-
46	John Mason (Glasgow Shettleston)	-	-	-	-	-
47	John Swinney (Perthshire North)	-	-	-	-	-
48	Katie Forbes (Skye, Lochaber & Badenoch)	-	-	-	-	-
49	Keith Brown (Clackmannanshire & Dunblane)	-	-	-	-	-
50	Kenny Gibson (Cunninghame North)	-	-	-	-	-
51	Kevin Stewart (Aberdeen Central)	-	-	-	-	-
52	Linda Fabiani (East Kilbride)	-	-	-	-	-
53	Mairi Evans (Angus North & Mearns)	-	-	-	-	-
54	Mark McDonald (Aberdeen Donside)	-	-	-	-	-
55	Maureen Watt (Aberdeen South & North Kincardine)	-	-	-	-	-
56	Michael Matheson (Falkirk West)	-	-	-	-	-
57	Mike Russell (Argyll & Bute)	-	-	-	-	-
58	Nicola Sturgeon (Glasgow Southside)	-	-	-	-	-
59	Paul Wheelhouse (Ettrick, Roxburgh & Berwickshire)	-	-	-	-	-
60	Richard Lochhead (Moray)	-	-	-	-	-
61	Richard Lyle (Uddingston & Bellshill)	-	-	-	-	-
62	Roderick Campbell (North East Fife)	-	-	-	-	-
63	Rona Mackay (Strathkelvin & Bearsden)	-	-	-	-	-
64	Roseanna Cunningham (Perthshire South & Kinross-shire)	-	-	-	-	-
65	Ruth Maguire (Cunninghame South)	-	-	-	-	-
66	Sandra White (Glasgow Kelvin)	-	-	-	-	-
67	Shirley-Anne Somerville (Dunfermline)	-	-	-	-	-
68	Shona Robison (Dundee City East)	-	-	-	-	-
69	Stewart Maxwell (Eastwood)	-	-	-	-	-
70	Stewart Stevenson (Banffshire & Buchan Coast)	-	-	-	-	-
71	Stuart McMillan (Greenock & Inverclyde)	-	-	-	-	-
72	Toni Giugliano (Edinburgh Western)	-	-	-	-	-
73	Willie Coffey (Kilmarnock & Irvine Valley)	-	-	-	-	-

Central Scotland

	SNP	Labour	Conservative	Liberal Democrat	Green
Constituency Seats	9 (+3)	0 (-3)	0 (n/c)	0 (n/c)	0 (n/c)
List Seats	0 (-3)	5 (+2)	1 (n/c)	0 (n/c)	1 (+1)
Total Seats	9 (n/c)	5 (-1)	1 (n/c)	0 (n/c)	1 (+1)

	SNP	Labour	Conservative	Green
1	Alex Neil (Airdrie & Shotts)	Craig Martin (Central Scotland list)	Margaret Mitchell (Central Scotland list)	Kirsten Robb (Central Scotland list)
2	Angus MacDonald (Falkirk East)	Elaine Smith (Central Scotland list)	-	-
3	Christina McKelvie (Hamilton, Larkhall & Stonehouse)	Mark Griffin (Central Scotland list)	-	-
4	Clare Adamson (Motherwell & Wishaw)	Monica Lennon (Central Scotland list)	-	-
5	Fulton MacGregor (Coatbridge & Chryston)	Richard Leonard (Central Scotland list)	-	-
6	Jamie Hepburn (Cumbernauld & Kilsyth)	-	-	-
7	Linda Fabiani (East Kilbride)	-	-	-
8	Michael Matheson (Falkirk West)	-	-	-
9	Richard Lyle (Uddingston & Bellshill)	-	-	-

Moving average of poll subsamples for Central Scotland constituency vote:

Party	Vote Share (%)
SNP	58.23%
Labour	24.59%
Conservative	10.56%
Liberal Democrat	2.33%
Green	2.23%
UKIP	1.15%
TUSC	0.00%
Scottish Socialist	0.00%
CISTA	0.00%
Scottish Christian	0.00%

(1656 samples over 18 polls)

Predicted Central Scotland Constituency results

Constituency	2011 Winner	2016 Prediction
Airdrie & Shotts	SNP (50.2%)	SNP (61.4%)
Coatbridge & Chryston	Labour (52.2%)	SNP (56.7%)
Cumbernauld & Kilsyth	SNP (53.8%)	SNP (63.3%)
East Kilbride	SNP (48.0%)	SNP (59.6%)
Falkirk East	SNP (50.8%)	SNP (61.3%)
Falkirk West	SNP (55.3%)	SNP (63.5%)
Hamilton, Larkhall & Stonehouse	SNP (48.1%)	SNP (59.9%)
Motherwell & Wishaw	Labour (43.8%)	SNP (54.6%)
Uddingston & Bellshill	Labour (46.1%)	SNP (57.7%)

Moving average of poll subsamples for Central Scotland regional vote:

Party	Vote Share (%)
SNP	52.28%
Labour	25.81%
Conservative	9.27%
Green	5.80%
UKIP	3.00%
Liberal Democrat	2.45%
Scottish Socialist	1.09%
Solidarity	0.14%
TUSC	0.00%
Socialist Labour	0.00%
Scottish Pensioners	0.00%
CISTA	0.00%
Scottish Christian	0.00%

(1635 samples over 18 polls)

Predicted Central Scotland List Vote share

Party	2011 List vote (%)	Predicted List vote (%)
SNP	46.35%	49.48%
Labour	35.31%	26.20%
Conservative	6.37%	8.37%
Green	2.41%	5.04%
Pensioners	2.48%	2.47%
UKIP	0.54%	2.43%
Liberal Democrat	1.42%	1.99%
Christian Party	1.36%	1.36%
Scottish Socialist	0.35%	1.04%
Others	0.81%	0.81%
Independant	0.35%	0.35%
Solidarity	0.24%	0.21%
BNP	0.95%	0.17%
Socialist Labour	1.06%	0.08%

Predicted Central Scotland additional members:

#	2011 Result	2016 Prediction
1	Labour	Labour (Richard Leonard)
2	Labour	Labour (Monica Lennon)
3	SNP	Labour (Mark Griffin)
4	Conservative	Conservative (Margaret Mitchell)
5	Labour	Labour (Elaine Smith)
6	SNP	Labour (Craig Martin)
7	SNP	Green (Kirsten Robb)

Mid Scotland and Fife

	SNP	Labour	Conservative	Liberal Democrat	Green
Constituency Seats	9 (+1)	0 (-1)	0 (n/c)	0 (n/c)	0 (n/c)
List Seats	0 (-1)	3 (n/c)	2 (n/c)	1 (n/c)	1 (+1)
Total Seats	9 (n/c)	3 (-1)	2 (n/c)	1 (n/c)	1 (+1)

	SNP	Labour	Conservative	Green	Liberal Democrat
1	Annabel Ewing (Cowdenbeath)	Alex Rowley (Mid Scotland and Fife list)	Liz Smith (Mid Scotland and Fife list)	Mark Ruskell (Mid Scotland and Fife list)	Willie Rennie (Mid Scotland and Fife list)
2	Bruce Crawford (Stirling)	Claire Baker (Mid Scotland and Fife list)	Murdo Fraser (Mid Scotland and Fife list)	-	-
3	David Torrance (Kirkcaldy)	Thomas Docherty (Mid Scotland and Fife list)	-	-	-
4	Jenny Gilruth (Mid Fife & Glenrothes)	-	-	-	-
5	John Swinney (Perthshire North)	-	-	-	-
6	Keith Brown (Clackmannanshire & Dunblane)	-	-	-	-
7	Roderick Campbell (North East Fife)	-	-	-	-
8	Roseanna Cunningham (Perthshire South & Kinross-shire)	-	-	-	-
9	Shirley-Anne Somerville (Dunfermline)	-	-	-	-

Moving average of poll subsamples for Mid Scotland and Fife constituency vote:

Party	Vote Share (%)
SNP	53.73%
Labour	20.50%
Conservative	15.33%
Liberal Democrat	7.43%
UKIP	2.00%
Green	1.52%
CISTA	0.89%
TUSC	0.00%
Scottish Socialist	0.00%
Scottish Christian	0.00%

(1501 samples over 18 polls)

Predicted Mid Scotland and Fife Constituency results

Constituency	2011 Winner	2016 Prediction
Clackmannanshire & Dunblane	SNP (48.3%)	SNP (56.9%)
Cowdenbeath	Labour (46.5%)	SNP (54.0%)
Dunfermline	SNP (37.6%)	SNP (52.2%)
Kirkcaldy	SNP (45.2%)	SNP (56.2%)
Mid Fife & Glenrothes	SNP (52.3%)	SNP (58.5%)
North East Fife	SNP (37.2%)	SNP (49.4%)
Perthshire North	SNP (60.8%)	SNP (60.5%)
Perthshire South & Kinross-shire	SNP (51.5%)	SNP (56.3%)
Stirling	SNP (48.9%)	SNP (56.3%)

Moving average of poll subsamples for Mid Scotland and Fife regional vote:

Party	Vote Share (%)
SNP	46.22%
Labour	19.11%
Conservative	14.52%
Liberal Democrat	7.87%
Green	7.83%
UKIP	3.14%
Socialist Labour	1.10%
Solidarity	0.45%
Scottish Socialist	0.24%
TUSC	0.00%
Scottish Pensioners	0.00%
CISTA	0.00%
Scottish Christian	0.00%

(1494 samples over 18 polls)

Predicted Mid Scotland and Fife List Vote share

Party	2011 List vote (%)	Predicted List vote (%)
SNP	45.20%	44.60%
Labour	25.03%	18.42%
Conservative	14.12%	15.13%
Green	4.23%	7.48%
Liberal Democrat	5.85%	6.95%
UKIP	1.10%	3.38%
Pensioners	1.59%	1.48%
Socialist Labour	0.69%	0.59%
Scottish Socialist	0.32%	0.56%
Independant	0.57%	0.53%
Christian Party	0.30%	0.28%
Solidarity	0.08%	0.26%
Others	0.25%	0.23%
BNP	0.67%	0.11%

Predicted Mid Scotland and Fife additional members:

#	2011 Result	2016 Prediction
1	Conservative	Labour (Alex Rowley)
2	Labour	Conservative (Murdo Fraser)
3	Labour	Labour (Claire Baker)
4	Conservative	Conservative (Liz Smith)
5	Labour	Green (Mark Ruskell)
6	Liberal Democrat	Liberal Democrat (Willie Rennie)
7	SNP	Labour (Thomas Docherty)

Lothian

	SNP	Labour	Conservative	Liberal Democrat	Green	Margo MacDonald
Constituency Seats	9 (+1)	0 (-1)	0 (n/c)	0 (n/c)	0 (n/c)	0 (n/c)
List Seats	0 (n/c)	2 (-1)	2 (n/c)	1 (+1)	2 (+1)	0 (-1)
Total Seats	9 (+1)	2 (-2)	2 (n/c)	1 (+1)	2 (+1)	0 (-1)

	SNP	Labour	Conservative	Green	Liberal Democrat
1	Alison Dickie (Edinburgh Central)	Kezia Dugdale (Lothian list)	Miles Briggs (Lothian list)	Alison Johnstone (Lothian list)	Alex Cole-Hamilton (Lothian list)
2	Angela Constance (Almond Valley)	Neil Findlay (Lothian list)	Ruth Davidson (Lothian list)	Andy Wightman (Lothian list)	-
3	Ash Denham (Edinburgh Eastern)	-	-	-	-
4	Ben Macpherson (Edinburgh Northern & Leith)	-	-	-	-
5	Colin Beattie (Midlothian North & Musselburgh)	-	-	-	-
6	Fiona Hyslop (Linlithgow)	-	-	-	-
7	Gordon Macdonald (Edinburgh Pentlands)	-	-	-	-
8	Jim Eadie (Edinburgh Southern)	-	-	-	-
9	Toni Giugliano (Edinburgh Western)	-	-	-	-

Moving average of poll subsamples for Lothian constituency vote:

Party	Vote Share (%)
SNP	49.11%
Labour	22.90%
Conservative	15.43%
Liberal Democrat	7.99%
Green	3.60%
Scottish Christian	1.88%
UKIP	1.30%
TUSC	0.00%
Scottish Socialist	0.00%
CISTA	0.00%

(2062 samples over 18 polls)

Predicted Lothian Constituency results

Constituency	2011 Winner	2016 Prediction
Almond Valley	SNP (54.3%)	SNP (58.2%)
Edinburgh Central	SNP (32.7%)	SNP (46.7%)
Edinburgh Eastern	SNP (47.4%)	SNP (55.1%)
Edinburgh Northern & Leith	Labour (41.6%)	SNP (51.1%)
Edinburgh Pentlands	SNP (37.3%)	SNP (47.6%)
Edinburgh Southern	SNP (29.4%)	SNP (44.6%)
Edinburgh Western	SNP (35.8%)	SNP (48.3%)
Linlithgow	SNP (49.8%)	SNP (55.7%)
Midlothian North & Musselburgh	SNP (47.2%)	SNP (53.9%)

Moving average of poll subsamples for Lothian regional vote:

Party	Vote Share (%)
SNP	39.85%
Labour	18.55%
Conservative	15.08%
Green	13.45%
Liberal Democrat	9.30%
UKIP	2.95%
TUSC	0.63%
CISTA	0.58%
Scottish Socialist	0.50%
Solidarity	0.00%
Socialist Labour	0.00%
Scottish Pensioners	0.00%
Scottish Christian	0.00%

(2073 samples over 18 polls)

Predicted Lothian List Vote share

Party	2011 List vote (%)	Predicted List vote (%)
SNP	39.18%	39.91%
Labour	24.91%	18.74%
Conservative	11.66%	14.49%
Green	7.59%	13.60%
Liberal Democrat	5.50%	7.69%
UKIP	0.64%	2.61%
Pensioners	1.14%	1.13%
Scottish Socialist	0.42%	0.85%
Others	0.44%	0.44%
Christian Party	0.32%	0.32%
BNP	0.70%	0.12%
Solidarity	0.12%	0.07%
Socialist Labour	0.59%	0.04%
Margo MacDonald	6.79%	0.00%

Predicted Lothian additional members:

#	2011 Result	2016 Prediction
1	Labour	Labour (Kezia Dugdale)
2	Conservative	Conservative (Ruth Davidson)
3	Labour	Green (Alison Johnstone)
4	Green	Labour (Neil Findlay)
5	Margo MacDonald	Liberal Democrat (Alex Cole-Hamilton)
6	Labour	Conservative (Miles Briggs)
7	Conservative	Green (Andy Wightman)

Highlands and Islands

	SNP	Labour	Conservative	Liberal Democrat	Green	UKIP
Constituency Seats	8 (+2)	0 (n/c)	0 (n/c)	0 (-2)	0 (n/c)	0 (n/c)
List Seats	0 (-3)	2 (n/c)	2 (n/c)	1 (+1)	1 (+1)	1 (+1)
Total Seats	8 (-1)	2 (n/c)	2 (n/c)	1 (-1)	1 (+1)	1 (+1)

	SNP	Conservative	Labour	Liberal Democrat	Green	UKIP
1	Alasdair Allan (Nah h-Eilanan an Iar)	Douglas Ross (Highlands and Islands list)	David Stewart (Highlands and Islands list)	Jamie Stone (Highlands and Islands list)	John Finnie (Highlands and Islands list)	UKIP candidate (Highlands and Islands list)
2	Danus Skene (Shetland Islands)	Edward Mountain (Highlands and Islands list)	Rhoda Grant (Highlands and Islands list)	-	-	-
3	Donna Heddle (Orkney Islands)	-	-	-	-	-
4	Fergus Ewing (Inverness & Nairn)	-	-	-	-	-
5	Gail Ross (Caithness Sutherland & Ross)	-	-	-	-	-
6	Katie Forbes (Skye, Lochaber & Badenoch)	-	-	-	-	-
7	Mike Russell (Argyll & Bute)	-	-	-	-	-
8	Richard Lochhead (Moray)	-	-	-	-	-

Moving average of poll subsamples for Highlands and Islands constituency vote:

Party	Vote Share (%)
SNP	56.71%
Labour	13.18%
Conservative	12.85%
Liberal Democrat	10.77%
Scottish Christian	4.35%
UKIP	1.25%
Green	1.13%
TUSC	0.00%
Scottish Socialist	0.00%
CISTA	0.00%

(1062 samples over 18 polls)

Predicted Highlands and Islands Constituency results

Constituency	2011 Winner	2016 Prediction
Argyll & Bute	SNP (50.6%)	SNP (58.2%)
Caithness Sutherland & Ross	SNP (48.4%)	SNP (59.6%)
Inverness & Nairn	SNP (51.5%)	SNP (59.5%)
Moray	SNP (58.8%)	SNP (61.6%)
Nah h-Eilanan an Iar	SNP (65.3%)	SNP (68.1%)
Orkney Islands	Liberal Democrat (35.7%)	SNP (40.0%)
Shetland Islands	Liberal Democrat (47.5%)	SNP (32.0%)
Skye, Lochaber & Badenoch	SNP (46.2%)	SNP (58.0%)

Moving average of poll subsamples for Highlands and Islands regional vote:

Party	Vote Share (%)
SNP	43.97%
Conservative	14.66%
Labour	13.76%
Liberal Democrat	10.67%
Green	9.09%
UKIP	5.73%
Scottish Christian	2.95%
Scottish Socialist	0.19%
TUSC	0.00%
Solidarity	0.00%
Socialist Labour	0.00%
Scottish Pensioners	0.00%
CISTA	0.00%

(1007 samples over 18 polls)

Predicted Highlands and Islands List Vote share

Party	2011 List vote (%)	Predicted List vote (%)
SNP	47.53%	43.52%
Conservative	11.64%	13.48%
Labour	14.46%	11.73%
Liberal Democrat	12.14%	11.32%
Green	5.07%	8.62%
UKIP	1.88%	5.82%
Christian Party	1.98%	1.75%
Others	1.93%	1.71%
Pensioners	1.55%	1.37%
Scottish Socialist	0.28%	0.46%
BNP	0.63%	0.10%
Solidarity	0.11%	0.06%
Socialist Labour	0.79%	0.05%
Independant	0.00%	0.00%

Predicted Highlands and Islands additional members:

#	2011 Result	2016 Prediction
1	Labour	Conservative (Douglas Ross)
2	Conservative	Labour (Rhoda Grant)
3	Labour	Liberal Democrat (Jamie Stone)
4	SNP	Green (John Finnie)
5	SNP	Conservative (Edward Mountain)
6	Conservative	Labour (David Stewart)
7	SNP	UKIP

North East Scotland

	SNP	Labour	Conservative	Liberal Democrat	Green
Constituency Seats	10 (n/c)	0 (n/c)	0 (n/c)	0 (n/c)	0 (n/c)
List Seats	0 (-1)	2 (-1)	3 (+1)	1 (n/c)	1 (+1)
Total Seats	10 (-1)	2 (-1)	3 (+1)	1 (n/c)	1 (+1)

	SNP	Conservative	Labour	Green	Liberal Democrat
1	Dennis Robertson (Aberdeenshire West)	Alex Johnstone (North East Scotland list)	Jenny Marra (North East Scotland list)	Maggie Chapman (North East Scotland list)	Mike Rumbles (North East Scotland list)
2	Gillian Martin (Aberdeenshire East)	Alexander Burnett (North East Scotland list)	Lewis MacDonald (North East Scotland list)	-	-
3	Graeme Dey (Angus South)	Ross Thomson (North East Scotland list)	-	-	-
4	Joe FitzPatrick (Dundee City West)	-	-	-	-
5	Kevin Stewart (Aberdeen Central)	-	-	-	-
6	Mairi Evans (Angus North & Mearns)	-	-	-	-
7	Mark McDonald (Aberdeen Donside)	-	-	-	-
8	Maureen Watt (Aberdeen South & North Kincardine)	-	-	-	-
9	Shona Robison (Dundee City East)	-	-	-	-
10	Stewart Stevenson (Banffshire & Buchan Coast)	-	-	-	-

Moving average of poll subsamples for North East Scotland constituency vote:

Party	Vote Share (%)
SNP	60.31%
Labour	16.18%
Conservative	15.90%
Liberal Democrat	5.23%
Green	1.38%
UKIP	0.86%
TUSC	0.00%
Scottish Socialist	0.00%
CISTA	0.00%
Scottish Christian	0.00%

(1739 samples over 18 polls)

Predicted North East Scotland Constituency results

Constituency	2011 Winner	2016 Prediction
Aberdeen Central	SNP (40.0%)	SNP (55.7%)
Aberdeen Donside	SNP (55.3%)	SNP (62.8%)
Aberdeen South & North Kincardine	SNP (41.7%)	SNP (54.0%)
Aberdeenshire East	SNP (64.5%)	SNP (66.6%)
Aberdeenshire West	SNP (42.6%)	SNP (56.1%)
Angus North & Mearns	SNP (54.8%)	SNP (61.2%)
Angus South	SNP (58.5%)	SNP (61.6%)
Banffshire & Buchan Coast	SNP (67.2%)	SNP (67.1%)
Dundee City East	SNP (64.2%)	SNP (67.2%)
Dundee City West	SNP (57.6%)	SNP (65.0%)

Moving average of poll subsamples for North East Scotland regional vote:

Party	Vote Share (%)
SNP	54.26%
Conservative	15.18%
Labour	14.86%
Green	6.52%
Liberal Democrat	5.02%
UKIP	3.65%
TUSC	2.36%
Scottish Socialist	0.22%
Solidarity	0.00%
Socialist Labour	0.00%
Scottish Pensioners	0.00%
CISTA	0.00%
Scottish Christian	0.00%

(1712 samples over 18 polls)

Predicted North East Scotland List Vote share

Party	2011 List vote (%)	Predicted List vote (%)
SNP	52.71%	51.80%
Conservative	14.11%	15.32%
Labour	16.44%	13.15%
Green	3.90%	6.50%
Liberal Democrat	6.81%	5.99%
UKIP	0.93%	3.32%
Pensioners	1.66%	1.52%
Christian Party	0.81%	0.74%
Scottish Socialist	0.42%	0.67%
Independant	0.44%	0.41%
Others	0.42%	0.38%
BNP	0.72%	0.12%
Solidarity	0.11%	0.06%
Socialist Labour	0.55%	0.04%

Predicted North East Scotland additional members:

#	2011 Result	2016 Prediction
1	Labour	Conservative (Alex Johnstone)
2	Conservative	Labour (Jenny Marra)
3	Labour	Conservative (Alexander Burnett)
4	Conservative	Labour (Lewis MacDonald)
5	Liberal Democrat	Green (Maggie Chapman)
6	Labour	Liberal Democrat (Mike Rumbles)
7	SNP	Conservative (Ross Thomson)

West Scotland

	SNP	Labour	Conservative	Liberal Democrat	Green
Constituency Seats	10 (+4)	0 (-4)	0 (n/c)	0 (n/c)	0 (n/c)
List Seats	0 (-2)	4 (+1)	2 (n/c)	0 (n/c)	1 (+1)
Total Seats	10 (+2)	4 (-3)	2 (n/c)	0 (n/c)	1 (+1)

	SNP	Labour	Conservative	Green
1	Andy Doig (Renfrewshire South)	Jackie Baillie (West Scotland list)	Jackson Carlaw (West Scotland list)	Ross Greer (West Scotland list)
2	Derek Mackay (Renfrewshire North & West)	Ken MacIntosh (West Scotland list)	Jamie Greene (West Scotland list)	-
3	Gail Robertson (Dumbarton)	Mary Fee (West Scotland list)	-	-
4	George Adam (Paisley)	Neil Bibby (West Scotland list)	-	-
5	Gil Paterson (Clydebank & Milngavie)	-	-	-
6	Kenny Gibson (Cunninghame North)	-	-	-
7	Rona Mackay (Strathkelvin & Bearsden)	-	-	-
8	Ruth Maguire (Cunninghame South)	-	-	-
9	Stewart Maxwell (Eastwood)	-	-	-
10	Stuart McMillan (Greenock & Inverclyde)	-	-	-

Moving average of poll subsamples for West Scotland constituency vote:

Party	Vote Share (%)
SNP	57.34%
Labour	23.37%
Conservative	14.38%
UKIP	2.37%
Liberal Democrat	2.09%
Green	1.58%
Scottish Christian	0.93%
Scottish Socialist	0.87%
TUSC	0.00%
CISTA	0.00%

(1660 samples over 18 polls)

Predicted West Scotland Constituency results

Constituency	2011 Winner	2016 Prediction
Clydebank & Milngavie	SNP (43.3%)	SNP (56.6%)
Cunninghame North	SNP (52.6%)	SNP (60.5%)
Cunninghame South	SNP (49.8%)	SNP (60.0%)
Dumbarton	Labour (44.1%)	SNP (52.9%)
Eastwood	Labour (39.7%)	SNP (44.5%)
Greenock & Inverclyde	Labour (43.9%)	SNP (56.4%)
Paisley	SNP (42.6%)	SNP (56.5%)
Renfrewshire North & West	SNP (41.9%)	SNP (54.8%)
Renfrewshire South	Labour (48.1%)	SNP (54.1%)
Strathkelvin & Bearsden	SNP (42.2%)	SNP (55.7%)

Moving average of poll subsamples for West Scotland regional vote:

Party	Vote Share (%)
SNP	49.54%
Labour	24.05%
Conservative	13.56%
Green	6.35%
Liberal Democrat	2.82%
UKIP	2.65%
Scottish Christian	0.83%
Scottish Socialist	0.35%
Solidarity	0.09%
TUSC	0.00%
Socialist Labour	0.00%
Scottish Pensioners	0.00%
CISTA	0.00%

(1638 samples over 18 polls)

Predicted West Scotland List Vote share

Party	2011 List vote (%)	Predicted List vote (%)
SNP	41.54%	45.38%
Labour	32.77%	24.17%
Conservative	12.75%	14.20%
Green	2.98%	5.80%
Liberal Democrat	3.24%	3.17%
UKIP	0.71%	2.54%
Pensioners	1.69%	1.64%
Scottish Socialist	0.62%	1.05%
Christian Party	0.87%	0.85%
Others	0.73%	0.71%
Independant	0.16%	0.16%
Solidarity	0.16%	0.13%
BNP	0.77%	0.13%
Socialist Labour	1.01%	0.07%

Predicted West Scotland additional members:

#	2011 Result	2016 Prediction
1	Conservative	Labour (Jackie Baillie)
2	Labour	Conservative (Jackson Carlaw)
3	Conservative	Labour (Neil Bibby)
4	SNP	Labour (Mary Fee)
5	Labour	Conservative (Jamie Greene)
6	SNP	Labour (Ken MacIntosh)
7	Labour	Green (Ross Greer)

South Scotland

	SNP	Labour	Conservative	Liberal Democrat	Green
Constituency Seats	9 (+5)	0 (-2)	0 (-3)	0 (n/c)	0 (n/c)
List Seats	0 (-4)	3 (+1)	3 (+3)	1 (n/c)	0 (n/c)
Total Seats	9 (+1)	3 (-1)	3 (n/c)	1 (n/c)	0 (n/c)

	SNP	Conservative	Labour	Liberal Democrat
1	Aileen Campbell (Clydesdale)	John Scott (South Scotland list)	Claudia Beamish (South Scotland list)	Jim Hume (South Scotland list)
2	Aileen McLeod (Galloway & West Dumfries)	Oliver Mundell (South Scotland list)	Colin Smyth (South Scotland list)	-
3	Christine Grahame (Midlothian South, Tweeddale & Lauderdale)	Rachael Hamilton (South Scotland list)	Iain Gray (South Scotland list)	-
4	DJ Johnston-Smith (East Lothian)	-	-	-
5	Jeane Freeman (Carrick, Cumnock & Doon Valley)	-	-	-
6	Jen Dunn (Ayr)	-	-	-
7	Joan McAlpine (Dumfriesshire)	-	-	-
8	Paul Wheelhouse (Ettrick, Roxburgh & Berwickshire)	-	-	-
9	Willie Coffey (Kilmarnock & Irvine Valley)	-	-	-

Moving average of poll subsamples for South Scotland constituency vote:

Party	Vote Share (%)
SNP	47.68%
Conservative	22.52%
Labour	21.21%
Liberal Democrat	6.70%
UKIP	0.73%
Green	0.46%
TUSC	0.00%
Scottish Socialist	0.00%
CISTA	0.00%
Scottish Christian	0.00%

(1301 samples over 18 polls)

Predicted South Scotland Constituency results

Constituency	2011 Winner	2016 Prediction
Ayr	Conservative (38.9%)	SNP (44.8%)
Carrick, Cumnock & Doon Valley	SNP (46.2%)	SNP (52.3%)
Clydesdale	SNP (49.9%)	SNP (56.0%)
Dumfriesshire	Labour (39.6%)	SNP (40.7%)
East Lothian	Labour (39.0%)	SNP (48.3%)
Ettrick, Roxburgh & Berwickshire	Conservative (44.9%)	SNP (39.4%)
Galloway & West Dumfries	Conservative (36.9%)	SNP (44.2%)
Kilmarnock & Irvine Valley	SNP (53.2%)	SNP (56.1%)
Midlothian South, Tweeddale & Lauderdale	SNP (43.5%)	SNP (51.1%)

Moving average of poll subsamples for South Scotland regional vote:

Party	Vote Share (%)
SNP	43.90%
Labour	18.89%
Conservative	17.36%
Liberal Democrat	8.24%
Green	6.48%
UKIP	4.42%
Scottish Pensioners	1.59%
Solidarity	0.13%
Scottish Socialist	0.09%
TUSC	0.00%
Socialist Labour	0.00%
CISTA	0.00%
Scottish Christian	0.00%

(1306 samples over 18 polls)

Predicted South Scotland List Vote share

Party	2011 List vote (%)	Predicted List vote (%)
SNP	40.98%	41.78%
Conservative	19.49%	19.73%
Labour	25.32%	18.58%
Liberal Democrat	5.41%	6.96%
Green	3.06%	5.87%
UKIP	1.16%	4.15%
Pensioners	1.58%	1.49%
Christian Party	0.69%	0.65%
Scottish Socialist	0.25%	0.39%
Solidarity	0.29%	0.22%
BNP	0.72%	0.12%
Socialist Labour	1.04%	0.07%
Independant	0.00%	0.00%
Others	0.00%	0.00%

Predicted South Scotland additional members:

#	2011 Result	2016 Prediction
1	Labour	Conservative (John Scott)
2	SNP	Labour (Iain Gray)
3	SNP	Conservative (Oliver Mundell)
4	Labour	Labour (Claudia Beamish)
5	SNP	Liberal Democrat (Jim Hume)
6	Liberal Democrat	Conservative (Rachael Hamilton)
7	SNP	Labour (Colin Smyth)

Glasgow

	SNP	Labour	Conservative	Liberal Democrat	Green
Constituency Seats	9 (+4)	0 (-4)	0 (n/c)	0 (n/c)	0 (n/c)
List Seats	0 (-2)	5 (+2)	1 (n/c)	0 (n/c)	1 (n/c)
Total Seats	9 (+2)	5 (-2)	1 (n/c)	0 (n/c)	1 (n/c)

	SNP	Labour	Green	Conservative
1	Bill Kidd (Glasgow Anniesland)	Anas Sarwar (Glasgow list)	Patrick Harvie (Glasgow list)	Adam Tomkins (Glasgow list)
2	Bob Doris (Glasgow Maryhill & Springburn)	Bill Butler (Glasgow list)	-	-
3	Clare Haughey (Rutherglen)	James Kelly (Glasgow list)	-	-
4	Humza Yousaf (Glasgow Pollok)	Johann Lamont (Glasgow list)	-	-
5	Ivan McKee (Glasgow Provan)	Pauline McNeill (Glasgow list)	-	-
6	James Dornan (Glasgow Cathcart)	-	-	-
7	John Mason (Glasgow Shettleston)	-	-	-
8	Nicola Sturgeon (Glasgow Southside)	-	-	-
9	Sandra White (Glasgow Kelvin)	-	-	-

Moving average of poll subsamples for Glasgow constituency vote:

Party	Vote Share (%)
SNP	56.12%
Labour	27.43%
Conservative	8.81%
Green	3.52%
Liberal Democrat	3.43%
Scottish Socialist	0.94%
TUSC	0.89%
UKIP	0.85%
CISTA	0.77%
Scottish Christian	0.00%

(1644 samples over 18 polls)

Predicted Glasgow Constituency results

Constituency	2011 Winner	2016 Prediction
Glasgow Anniesland	SNP (43.2%)	SNP (56.1%)
Glasgow Cathcart	SNP (45.5%)	SNP (56.9%)
Glasgow Kelvin	SNP (43.3%)	SNP (56.1%)
Glasgow Maryhill & Springburn	Labour (48.1%)	SNP (56.2%)
Glasgow Pollok	Labour (47.5%)	SNP (57.7%)
Glasgow Provan	Labour (52.3%)	SNP (56.3%)
Glasgow Shettleston	SNP (47.8%)	SNP (59.2%)
Glasgow Southside	SNP (54.4%)	SNP (62.0%)
Rutherglen	Labour (46.1%)	SNP (53.9%)

Moving average of poll subsamples for Glasgow regional vote:

Party	Vote Share (%)
SNP	45.27%
Labour	27.12%
Green	9.79%
Conservative	8.78%
Liberal Democrat	4.00%
UKIP	3.53%
CISTA	1.87%
Scottish Socialist	1.14%
TUSC	0.93%
Solidarity	0.09%
Socialist Labour	0.00%
Scottish Pensioners	0.00%
Scottish Christian	0.00%

(1623 samples over 18 polls)

Predicted Glasgow List Vote share

Party	2011 List vote (%)	Predicted List vote (%)
SNP	39.82%	41.67%
Labour	34.99%	26.06%
Green	5.97%	9.99%
Conservative	6.11%	7.79%
Others	4.45%	4.26%
Liberal Democrat	2.55%	3.31%
UKIP	0.54%	2.63%
Pensioners	1.80%	1.72%
Scottish Socialist	0.65%	1.46%
Christian Party	0.72%	0.69%
BNP	1.16%	0.20%
Independant	0.16%	0.16%
Socialist Labour	1.09%	0.07%
Solidarity	0.00%	0.00%

Predicted Glasgow additional members:

#	2011 Result	2016 Prediction
1	Labour	Labour (Anas Sarwar)
2	SNP	Labour (Johann Lamont)
3	Conservative	Green (Patrick Harvie)
4	Green	Labour (James Kelly)
5	Labour	Conservative (Adam Tomkins)
6	SNP	Labour (Pauline McNeill)
7	Labour	Labour (Bill Butler)