This is a model of what would happen if all Conservative, Labour, Liberal Democrat and UKIP voters in Scotland dropped their principles and voted tactically against the SNP. I've taken my previous UK GE 2015 predictions and then moved taken all unionist party votes to which ever party would be chosen tactically.
I've used two variants of the model:
- One where tactical voters decide which non-SNP party to vote based on 2010 GE results.
- One where tactical voters decide which non-SNP party to vote based on current polls.
Scotland seat change summary assuming 100% tactical voting based on GE 2010 results:
| Party |
Seats Lost |
Seats Held |
Seats Won |
Total Seats |
| Conservative |
0 |
1 |
0 |
1 |
| Labour |
13 |
28 |
0 |
28 |
| Liberal Democrat |
2 |
9 |
0 |
9 |
| SNP |
0 |
6 |
15 |
21 |
Predicted UK GE 2015 Constituency results in Scotland assuming 100% tactical voting based on GE 2010 results:
| Constituency |
Conservative |
Labour |
Liberal Democrat |
SNP |
2010 Result |
2015 Prediction |
| Aberdeen North |
0.00% |
47.64% |
0.00% |
49.86% |
Labour |
SNP |
| Aberdeen South |
0.00% |
61.74% |
0.00% |
30.63% |
Labour |
Labour |
| Aberdeenshire West & Kincardine |
0.00% |
0.00% |
60.50% |
38.20% |
Liberal Democrat |
Liberal Democrat |
| Airdrie & Shotts |
0.00% |
48.03% |
0.00% |
50.49% |
Labour |
SNP |
| Angus |
38.06% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
61.92% |
SNP |
SNP |
| Argyll & Bute |
0.00% |
0.00% |
48.02% |
41.97% |
Liberal Democrat |
Liberal Democrat |
| Ayr, Carrick & Cumnock |
0.00% |
59.79% |
0.00% |
40.15% |
Labour |
Labour |
| Ayrshire Central |
0.00% |
56.17% |
0.00% |
42.77% |
Labour |
Labour |
| Ayrshire North & Arran |
0.00% |
46.04% |
0.00% |
52.98% |
Labour |
SNP |
| Banff & Buchan |
31.52% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
66.47% |
SNP |
SNP |
| Berwickshire, Roxburgh & Selkirk |
0.00% |
0.00% |
74.36% |
25.16% |
Liberal Democrat |
Liberal Democrat |
| Caithness, Sutherland & Easter Ross |
0.00% |
0.00% |
47.78% |
49.57% |
Liberal Democrat |
SNP |
| Coatbridge, Chryston & Bellshill |
0.00% |
59.19% |
0.00% |
40.40% |
Labour |
Labour |
| Cumbernauld, Kilsyth & Kirkintilloch East |
0.00% |
47.38% |
0.00% |
51.05% |
Labour |
SNP |
| Dumfries & Galloway |
0.00% |
72.25% |
0.00% |
27.34% |
Labour |
Labour |
| Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale & Tweeddale |
70.13% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
23.72% |
Conservative |
Conservative |
| Dunbartonshire East |
0.00% |
0.00% |
69.92% |
29.52% |
Liberal Democrat |
Liberal Democrat |
| Dunbartonshire West |
0.00% |
56.29% |
0.00% |
42.07% |
Labour |
Labour |
| Dundee East |
0.00% |
33.48% |
0.00% |
60.69% |
SNP |
SNP |
| Dundee West |
0.00% |
40.18% |
0.00% |
57.49% |
Labour |
SNP |
| Dunfermline & Fife West |
0.00% |
69.41% |
0.00% |
30.02% |
Labour |
Labour |
| East Kilbride, Strathaven & Lesmahagow |
0.00% |
44.53% |
0.00% |
45.49% |
Labour |
SNP |
| East Lothian |
0.00% |
57.21% |
0.00% |
33.76% |
Labour |
Labour |
| Edinburgh East |
0.00% |
38.32% |
0.00% |
38.30% |
Labour |
Labour |
| Edinburgh North & Leith |
0.00% |
58.24% |
0.00% |
25.24% |
Labour |
Labour |
| Edinburgh South |
0.00% |
66.04% |
0.00% |
20.67% |
Labour |
Labour |
| Edinburgh South West |
0.00% |
60.21% |
0.00% |
28.08% |
Labour |
Labour |
| Edinburgh West |
0.00% |
0.00% |
63.52% |
35.84% |
Liberal Democrat |
Liberal Democrat |
| Falkirk |
0.00% |
46.41% |
0.00% |
53.20% |
Labour |
SNP |
| Fife North East |
0.00% |
0.00% |
65.11% |
34.19% |
Liberal Democrat |
Liberal Democrat |
| Glasgow Central |
0.00% |
47.10% |
0.00% |
36.10% |
Labour |
Labour |
| Glasgow East |
0.00% |
45.95% |
0.00% |
49.99% |
Labour |
SNP |
| Glasgow North |
0.00% |
49.75% |
0.00% |
28.96% |
Labour |
Labour |
| Glasgow North East |
0.00% |
58.91% |
0.00% |
34.91% |
Labour |
Labour |
| Glasgow North West |
0.00% |
50.18% |
0.00% |
33.76% |
Labour |
Labour |
| Glasgow South |
0.00% |
44.93% |
0.00% |
40.83% |
Labour |
Labour |
| Glasgow South West |
0.00% |
54.17% |
0.00% |
38.77% |
Labour |
Labour |
| Glenrothes |
0.00% |
53.68% |
0.00% |
45.68% |
Labour |
Labour |
| Gordon |
0.00% |
0.00% |
41.60% |
48.54% |
Liberal Democrat |
SNP |
| Inverclyde |
0.00% |
41.52% |
0.00% |
58.48% |
Labour |
SNP |
| Inverness, Nairn, Badenoch & Strathspey |
0.00% |
0.00% |
46.51% |
41.72% |
Liberal Democrat |
Liberal Democrat |
| Kilmarnock & Loudoun |
0.00% |
46.74% |
0.00% |
52.57% |
Labour |
SNP |
| Kirkcaldy & Cowdenbeath |
0.00% |
65.72% |
0.00% |
32.55% |
Labour |
Labour |
| Lanark & Hamilton East |
0.00% |
54.60% |
0.00% |
43.31% |
Labour |
Labour |
| Linlithgow & Falkirk East |
0.00% |
46.01% |
0.00% |
53.30% |
Labour |
SNP |
| Livingston |
0.00% |
45.56% |
0.00% |
51.14% |
Labour |
SNP |
| Midlothian |
0.00% |
48.85% |
0.00% |
42.12% |
Labour |
Labour |
| Moray |
38.73% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
60.58% |
SNP |
SNP |
| Motherwell & Wishaw |
0.00% |
55.12% |
0.00% |
42.09% |
Labour |
Labour |
| Na h-Eileanan an Iar (Western Isles) |
0.00% |
19.90% |
0.00% |
71.16% |
SNP |
SNP |
| Ochil & South Perthshire |
0.00% |
45.25% |
0.00% |
49.05% |
Labour |
SNP |
| Orkney & Shetland |
0.00% |
0.00% |
73.11% |
24.44% |
Liberal Democrat |
Liberal Democrat |
| Paisley & Renfrewshire North |
0.00% |
54.21% |
0.00% |
42.86% |
Labour |
Labour |
| Paisley & Renfrewshire South |
0.00% |
54.20% |
0.00% |
41.57% |
Labour |
Labour |
| Perth & North Perthshire |
33.36% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
65.09% |
SNP |
SNP |
| Renfrewshire East |
0.00% |
77.49% |
0.00% |
21.48% |
Labour |
Labour |
| Ross, Skye & Lochaber |
0.00% |
0.00% |
50.15% |
35.35% |
Liberal Democrat |
Liberal Democrat |
| Rutherglen & Hamilton West |
0.00% |
62.55% |
0.00% |
36.36% |
Labour |
Labour |
| Stirling |
0.00% |
55.96% |
0.00% |
35.37% |
Labour |
Labour |
Scotland seat change summary assuming 100% tactical voting based on current polls:
| Party |
Seats Lost |
Seats Held |
Seats Won |
Total Seats |
| Conservative |
0 |
1 |
6 |
7 |
| Labour |
14 |
27 |
2 |
29 |
| Liberal Democrat |
9 |
2 |
0 |
2 |
| SNP |
0 |
6 |
15 |
21 |
Predicted UK GE 2015 Constituency results in Scotland assuming 100% tactical voting based on current polls:
| Constituency |
Conservative |
Labour |
Liberal Democrat |
SNP |
2010 Result |
2015 Prediction |
| Aberdeen North |
0.00% |
47.64% |
0.00% |
49.86% |
Labour |
SNP |
| Aberdeen South |
0.00% |
61.74% |
0.00% |
30.63% |
Labour |
Labour |
| Aberdeenshire West & Kincardine |
60.50% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
38.20% |
Liberal Democrat |
Conservative |
| Airdrie & Shotts |
0.00% |
48.03% |
0.00% |
50.49% |
Labour |
SNP |
| Angus |
38.06% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
61.92% |
SNP |
SNP |
| Argyll & Bute |
48.02% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
41.97% |
Liberal Democrat |
Conservative |
| Ayr, Carrick & Cumnock |
0.00% |
59.79% |
0.00% |
40.15% |
Labour |
Labour |
| Ayrshire Central |
0.00% |
56.17% |
0.00% |
42.77% |
Labour |
Labour |
| Ayrshire North & Arran |
0.00% |
46.04% |
0.00% |
52.98% |
Labour |
SNP |
| Banff & Buchan |
31.52% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
66.47% |
SNP |
SNP |
| Berwickshire, Roxburgh & Selkirk |
74.36% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
25.16% |
Liberal Democrat |
Conservative |
| Caithness, Sutherland & Easter Ross |
0.00% |
47.78% |
0.00% |
49.57% |
Liberal Democrat |
SNP |
| Coatbridge, Chryston & Bellshill |
0.00% |
59.19% |
0.00% |
40.40% |
Labour |
Labour |
| Cumbernauld, Kilsyth & Kirkintilloch East |
0.00% |
47.38% |
0.00% |
51.05% |
Labour |
SNP |
| Dumfries & Galloway |
72.25% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
27.34% |
Labour |
Conservative |
| Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale & Tweeddale |
70.13% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
23.72% |
Conservative |
Conservative |
| Dunbartonshire East |
0.00% |
69.92% |
0.00% |
29.52% |
Liberal Democrat |
Labour |
| Dunbartonshire West |
0.00% |
56.29% |
0.00% |
42.07% |
Labour |
Labour |
| Dundee East |
0.00% |
33.48% |
0.00% |
60.69% |
SNP |
SNP |
| Dundee West |
0.00% |
40.18% |
0.00% |
57.49% |
Labour |
SNP |
| Dunfermline & Fife West |
0.00% |
69.41% |
0.00% |
30.02% |
Labour |
Labour |
| East Kilbride, Strathaven & Lesmahagow |
0.00% |
44.53% |
0.00% |
45.49% |
Labour |
SNP |
| East Lothian |
0.00% |
57.21% |
0.00% |
33.76% |
Labour |
Labour |
| Edinburgh East |
0.00% |
38.32% |
0.00% |
38.30% |
Labour |
Labour |
| Edinburgh North & Leith |
0.00% |
58.24% |
0.00% |
25.24% |
Labour |
Labour |
| Edinburgh South |
0.00% |
66.04% |
0.00% |
20.67% |
Labour |
Labour |
| Edinburgh South West |
0.00% |
60.21% |
0.00% |
28.08% |
Labour |
Labour |
| Edinburgh West |
63.52% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
35.84% |
Liberal Democrat |
Conservative |
| Falkirk |
0.00% |
46.41% |
0.00% |
53.20% |
Labour |
SNP |
| Fife North East |
65.11% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
34.19% |
Liberal Democrat |
Conservative |
| Glasgow Central |
0.00% |
47.10% |
0.00% |
36.10% |
Labour |
Labour |
| Glasgow East |
0.00% |
45.95% |
0.00% |
49.99% |
Labour |
SNP |
| Glasgow North |
0.00% |
49.75% |
0.00% |
28.96% |
Labour |
Labour |
| Glasgow North East |
0.00% |
58.91% |
0.00% |
34.91% |
Labour |
Labour |
| Glasgow North West |
0.00% |
50.18% |
0.00% |
33.76% |
Labour |
Labour |
| Glasgow South |
0.00% |
44.93% |
0.00% |
40.83% |
Labour |
Labour |
| Glasgow South West |
0.00% |
54.17% |
0.00% |
38.77% |
Labour |
Labour |
| Glenrothes |
0.00% |
53.68% |
0.00% |
45.68% |
Labour |
Labour |
| Gordon |
41.60% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
48.54% |
Liberal Democrat |
SNP |
| Inverclyde |
0.00% |
41.52% |
0.00% |
58.48% |
Labour |
SNP |
| Inverness, Nairn, Badenoch & Strathspey |
0.00% |
46.51% |
0.00% |
41.72% |
Liberal Democrat |
Labour |
| Kilmarnock & Loudoun |
0.00% |
46.74% |
0.00% |
52.57% |
Labour |
SNP |
| Kirkcaldy & Cowdenbeath |
0.00% |
65.72% |
0.00% |
32.55% |
Labour |
Labour |
| Lanark & Hamilton East |
0.00% |
54.60% |
0.00% |
43.31% |
Labour |
Labour |
| Linlithgow & Falkirk East |
0.00% |
46.01% |
0.00% |
53.30% |
Labour |
SNP |
| Livingston |
0.00% |
45.56% |
0.00% |
51.14% |
Labour |
SNP |
| Midlothian |
0.00% |
48.85% |
0.00% |
42.12% |
Labour |
Labour |
| Moray |
38.73% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
60.58% |
SNP |
SNP |
| Motherwell & Wishaw |
0.00% |
55.12% |
0.00% |
42.09% |
Labour |
Labour |
| Na h-Eileanan an Iar (Western Isles) |
0.00% |
19.90% |
0.00% |
71.16% |
SNP |
SNP |
| Ochil & South Perthshire |
0.00% |
45.25% |
0.00% |
49.05% |
Labour |
SNP |
| Orkney & Shetland |
0.00% |
0.00% |
73.11% |
24.44% |
Liberal Democrat |
Liberal Democrat |
| Paisley & Renfrewshire North |
0.00% |
54.21% |
0.00% |
42.86% |
Labour |
Labour |
| Paisley & Renfrewshire South |
0.00% |
54.20% |
0.00% |
41.57% |
Labour |
Labour |
| Perth & North Perthshire |
33.36% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
65.09% |
SNP |
SNP |
| Renfrewshire East |
0.00% |
77.49% |
0.00% |
21.48% |
Labour |
Labour |
| Ross, Skye & Lochaber |
0.00% |
0.00% |
50.15% |
35.35% |
Liberal Democrat |
Liberal Democrat |
| Rutherglen & Hamilton West |
0.00% |
62.55% |
0.00% |
36.36% |
Labour |
Labour |
| Stirling |
0.00% |
55.96% |
0.00% |
35.37% |
Labour |
Labour |
If only 50% of voters for each party are willing to vote tactically the overall results would be:
| Party |
Seats Lost |
Seats Held |
Seats Won |
Total Seats |
| Conservative |
0 |
1 |
5 | 6 |
| Labour |
18 |
23 |
1 |
24 |
| Liberal Democrat |
10 |
1 |
0 |
1 |
| SNP |
0 |
6 |
22 |
28 |
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