Sunday 26 April 2015

Latest Scottish Poll of Polls for UK 2015 General Election and Scottish seat predictions

Poll of polls for Voting Intention of the Scottish Electorate in UK 2015 General Election:

Voting Intention of the Scottish Electorate for UK 2015 General Election


The chart is made from 224 polls with a cumulative sample count of 70051.

Individual points are poll results. Poll results are centred on the midway point of a poll, so if poll was taken from the 11th to the 13th it will be placed at the 12th. Point size is a rough indicator of the sample count of the poll. The lines are an exponentially smoothed sample count weighted moving average. The Scottish part extracted from a UK wide poll with only 150 usable samples will have a lesser effect on the moving average than a poll of Scotland with 1000 samples.


UK overall Seat change predictions:

Party Seats Lost Seats Held Seats Won Total Seats Change
Alliance Party 0 1 0 1 0
Conservative 51 252 33 285 -18
DUP 0 8 0 8 0
Green 0 1 4 5 +4
Labour 41 217 61 278 +20
Liberal Democrat 57 0 0 0 -57
Plaid Cymru 2 1 1 2 -1
Respect 0 1 0 1 0
SDLP 0 3 0 3 0
SNP 0 6 45 51 +45
Sinn Fein 1 4 0 4 -1
Speaker 1 0 0 0 -1
Sylvia Hermon 0 1 0 1 0
UKIP 0 2 8 10 +8
UUP 0 0 1 1 +1

Scotland seat change summary:

Party Seats Lost Seats Held Seats Won Total Seats Change
Conservative 0 1 2 3 +2
Labour 37 4 0 4 -37
Liberal Democrat 11 0 0 0 -11
SNP 0 6 45 51 +45
UKIP 0 0 1 1 +1

Predicted UK GE 2015 Constituency results in Scotland:

Constituency Conservative Labour Liberal Democrat SNP UKIP 2010 Result 2015 Prediction
Aberdeen North 12.68% 27.36% 6.81% 50.68% 0.00% Labour SNP
Aberdeen South 24.49% 25.96% 12.01% 31.17% 0.00% Labour SNP
Aberdeenshire West & Kincardine 29.22% 9.54% 17.64% 38.80% 3.55% Liberal Democrat SNP
Airdrie & Shotts 8.03% 37.76% 1.98% 50.71% 0.00% Labour SNP
Angus 22.16% 7.42% 2.76% 63.04% 4.60% SNP SNP
Argyll & Bute 24.26% 13.79% 11.42% 42.52% 0.00% Liberal Democrat SNP
Ayr, Carrick & Cumnock 24.10% 30.66% 2.76% 42.43% 0.00% Labour SNP
Ayrshire Central 21.07% 29.66% 4.41% 43.80% 0.00% Labour SNP
Ayrshire North & Arran 14.69% 26.77% 3.38% 54.20% 0.00% Labour SNP
Banff & Buchan 22.36% 6.11% 2.95% 66.62% 0.00% SNP SNP
Berwickshire, Roxburgh & Selkirk 35.68% 8.26% 23.96% 27.00% 4.63% Liberal Democrat Conservative
Caithness, Sutherland & Easter Ross 14.88% 16.92% 16.94% 48.74% 0.00% Liberal Democrat SNP
Coatbridge, Chryston & Bellshill 7.69% 44.79% 2.24% 44.85% 0.00% Labour SNP
Cumbernauld, Kilsyth & Kirkintilloch East 7.28% 34.87% 2.76% 53.49% 0.00% Labour SNP
Dumfries & Galloway 34.60% 22.25% 4.69% 34.48% 3.55% Labour Conservative
Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale & Tweeddale 35.61% 19.14% 5.62% 32.96% 3.54% Conservative Conservative
Dunbartonshire East 15.98% 21.22% 23.49% 35.18% 3.58% Liberal Democrat SNP
Dunbartonshire West 6.89% 37.74% 1.97% 46.25% 5.45% Labour SNP
Dundee East 11.35% 14.94% 2.82% 62.72% 3.34% SNP SNP
Dundee West 7.44% 26.46% 3.45% 60.30% 0.00% Labour SNP
Dunfermline & Fife West 8.81% 36.28% 16.39% 30.83% 7.12% Labour Labour
East Kilbride, Strathaven & Lesmahagow 12.07% 28.78% 3.30% 47.61% 0.00% Labour SNP
East Lothian 19.60% 26.72% 6.02% 35.55% 4.69% Labour SNP
Edinburgh East 9.85% 23.53% 6.27% 40.88% 0.00% Labour SNP
Edinburgh North & Leith 17.45% 27.16% 9.47% 33.80% 0.00% Labour SNP
Edinburgh South 23.00% 28.04% 11.21% 29.55% 0.00% Labour SNP
Edinburgh South West 22.80% 27.64% 5.53% 34.90% 0.00% Labour SNP
Edinburgh West 28.11% 20.21% 15.59% 35.49% 0.00% Liberal Democrat SNP
Falkirk 9.29% 22.74% 3.05% 55.69% 8.83% Labour SNP
Fife North East 19.69% 10.03% 23.41% 38.32% 7.87% Liberal Democrat SNP
Glasgow Central 5.91% 32.53% 4.34% 41.21% 3.14% Labour SNP
Glasgow East 4.12% 35.85% 1.35% 51.31% 3.28% Labour SNP
Glasgow North 6.50% 31.65% 8.39% 37.47% 0.00% Labour SNP
Glasgow North East 5.20% 47.78% 2.14% 38.50% 0.00% Labour Labour
Glasgow North West 8.71% 36.01% 4.46% 39.76% 0.00% Labour SNP
Glasgow South 10.09% 31.73% 3.06% 45.95% 0.00% Labour SNP
Glasgow South West 5.70% 37.15% 2.35% 47.83% 0.00% Labour SNP
Glenrothes 7.16% 37.16% 2.72% 47.91% 4.39% Labour SNP
Gordon 14.96% 13.17% 19.67% 46.60% 0.00% Liberal Democrat SNP
Inverclyde 8.20% 26.77% 0.66% 60.79% 3.58% Labour SNP
Inverness, Nairn, Badenoch & Strathspey 11.72% 13.18% 17.79% 45.84% 4.59% Liberal Democrat SNP
Kilmarnock & Loudoun 13.26% 29.57% 2.46% 54.02% 0.00% Labour SNP
Kirkcaldy & Cowdenbeath 8.61% 40.86% 3.34% 40.05% 5.34% Labour Labour
Lanark & Hamilton East 14.48% 29.00% 3.90% 45.11% 5.39% Labour SNP
Linlithgow & Falkirk East 11.52% 28.87% 4.42% 54.50% 0.00% Labour SNP
Livingston 9.87% 26.72% 3.64% 52.89% 3.58% Labour SNP
Midlothian 11.42% 27.16% 5.88% 44.11% 3.76% Labour SNP
Moray 18.36% 7.24% 3.66% 62.18% 7.87% SNP SNP
Motherwell & Wishaw 7.64% 39.78% 2.42% 47.33% 0.00% Labour SNP
Na h-Eileanan an Iar (Western Isles) 3.12% 14.04% 1.89% 72.17% 0.00% SNP SNP
Ochil & South Perthshire 17.05% 18.95% 3.39% 51.10% 4.79% Labour SNP
Orkney & Shetland 11.48% 7.00% 24.25% 25.65% 29.14% Liberal Democrat UKIP
Paisley & Renfrewshire North 15.20% 33.81% 3.92% 44.14% 0.00% Labour SNP
Paisley & Renfrewshire South 7.15% 39.03% 1.91% 47.68% 0.00% Labour SNP
Perth & North Perthshire 22.63% 7.31% 3.27% 65.27% 0.00% SNP SNP
Renfrewshire East 27.71% 32.75% 2.94% 33.93% 1.63% Labour SNP
Ross, Skye & Lochaber 8.71% 7.62% 30.03% 42.62% 3.61% Liberal Democrat SNP
Rutherglen & Hamilton West 10.35% 39.13% 4.60% 38.32% 6.49% Labour Labour
Stirling 23.16% 24.19% 5.00% 37.01% 3.43% Labour SNP

Wales seat change summary:

Party Seats Lost Seats Held Seats Won Total Seats Change
Conservative 1 7 1 8 0
Labour 0 26 4 30 +4
Liberal Democrat 3 0 0 0 -3
Plaid Cymru 2 1 1 2 -1

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