Friday 10 April 2015

Stats extracted from latest YouGov poll of Scotland.

Stats extracted from latest YouGov poll of 1056 Scottish Adults (2015-04-08 to 2015-04-09):
http://cdn.yougov.com/cumulus_uploads/document/9unqqunlzn/Times_Scotland_Results_150409_Formatted_readyforwebsite.pdf

I've taken the inverse to see things from the perspective of what a 2015 Westminster vote intention predicts about the voter, rather than how an aspect of the voter affects the way they are likely to vote. Eg:

The published stats say things like:

  • 50% of male voters intend to vote SNP.
  • 49% of female voters intend to vote SNP.

    From this we can infer:

  • If you intend to vote SNP there is a 50.5% chance that you are male.

    Transitions in party choice from 2010 to 2015:

  • 53.4% of Scottish Electorate will vote same way they voted in 2010.

    Here's a table of what percentages of the Scottish Electorate intend to vote compared to what they voted in 2010.

    Percentage of Scottish Electorate (%) 2010 Vote 2015 Voting intention
    25.0%SNPSNP
    14.3%LabourLabour
    14.1%ConservativeConservative
    11.0%Liberal DemocratSNP
    11.0%LabourSNP
    6.3%Liberal DemocratLabour
    3.6%ConservativeLabour
    3.5%Liberal DemocratLiberal Democrat
    2.1%Liberal DemocratConservative
    1.6%ConservativeSNP
    1.3%LabourConservative
    0.9%SNPLabour
    0.6%SNPConservative
    0.3%ConservativeLiberal Democrat
    0.2%LabourLiberal Democrat
    0.0%SNPLiberal Democrat

    What your UK 2015 General Election voting intention says about you:

    If you intend to vote SNP in 2015 General Election:

  • 51.1% you voted SNP in 2010.
  • 23.1% you voted Liberal Democrat in 2010.
  • 22.5% you voted Labour in 2010.
  • 3.3% you voted Conservative in 2010.
  • 96.4% chance you will turn out to vote.
  • 50.5% chance you're male.
  • You were most likely born in Scotland at a chance of 40.3%.
  • Your mean age is 41.3 years.

    If you intend to vote Labour in 2015 General Election:

  • 57.1% chance you voted Labour in 2010.
  • 25.0% chance you voted Liberal Democrat in 2010.
  • 14.3% chance you voted Conservative in 2010.
  • 3.6% chance you voted SNP in 2010.
  • 94.5% chance you will turn out to vote.
  • 51.0% chance you're female.
  • You were most likely born elsewhere in the UK at a chance of 46.2%.
  • Your mean age is 45.8 years.

    If you intend to vote Conservative in 2015 GE:

  • 78.4% chance you voted Conservative in 2010.
  • 11.3% chance you voted Liberal Democrat in 2010.
  • 7.2% chance you voted Labour in 2010.
  • 3.1% chance you voted SNP in 2010.
  • 96.1% chance you will turn out to vote.
  • 51.4% chance you're male.
  • You were most likely born elsewhere in the UK at a chance of 40.3%.
  • Your mean age is 45.7 years.

    If you intend to vote Liberal Democrat in 2015 GE:

  • 88.0% chance you voted Liberal Democrat 2010.
  • 8% chance you voted Conservative in 2010.
  • 4% chance you voted Labour in 2010.
  • 0% chance you vote SNP in 2010.
  • 94.1% chance you will turn out to vote.
  • 55.6% chance you're female.
  • You were most likely born outside the UK at a chance of 45.0%.
  • Your mean age is 42.8 years.

  • No comments:

    Post a Comment