Sunday 21 February 2016

What the bookies think: Next US president in 2016 election

Trump wins South Carolina and Bush drops out of the republican race. Rubio is now bookies third pick for president:

Odds given across various bookmakers (10bet, 32red, 888sport, bet365, betdaq, betfair, betfred, betvictor, betway, boylesports, bwin, coral, ladbrokes, marathon bet, matchbook, netbet, paddypower, skybet, sportingbet, stanjames, totesport, unibet, williamhill, winner) are meaned and then inverted to give the rough chance bookies as a gestalt reckon each candidate has.

Position Candidate Chance implied by odds Change (since 2016-02-11) Notes
1 Hillary Clinton 54.91% +2.93% US Secretary of State 2009-2013
2 Donald Trump 21.38% +1.30% You can't stump the Trump
3 Marco Rubio 20.00% +9.20% Florida Senator
4 Bernie Sanders 10.31% -2.05% Vermont Senator
5 Michael Bloomberg 3.08% -0.67% Mayor of NYC 2002-2013
6 Ted Cruz 3.00% -3.36% Texas Senator
7 Joe Biden 1.60% -0.23% US Vice President
8 John Kasich 1.54% -0.64% Governor of Ohio
9 Mitt Romney 0.39% -0.09% Governor of Massachusetts 2003-2007
- Jim Webb 0.33% 0.00% Books closed on 2016-02-14
10 Paul Ryan 0.30% -0.11%
11 Ben Carson 0.27% -0.05%
12 Vermin Supreme 0.20% 0.00%
12 Newt Gingrich 0.20% 0.00%
14 Al Gore 0.19% -0.04% Invented the Internet
15 Sarah Palin 0.16% -0.03%
15 Deval Patrick 0.16% -0.03%
17 Rahm Emanuel 0.16% -0.03%
17 Andrew Cuomo 0.16% -0.03%
17 Susana Martinez 0.16% -0.03%
17 Rob Portman 0.16% -0.03%
21 Elizabeth Warren 0.16% -0.16%
22 Mike Huckabee 0.15% -0.07%
22 Chris Christie 0.15% -0.07%
22 Carly Fiorina 0.15% -0.07%
22 Martin OMalley 0.15% -0.10%
26 Jeb Bush 0.15% -6.21% Governor of Florida 1999-2007
27 Joe Manchin 0.15% -0.04%
28 Rand Paul 0.14% -0.04%
28 Cory Booker 0.14% -0.02%
28 Jon Huntsman 0.14% -0.02%
31 Condoleeza Rice 0.13% -0.02%
32 Lincoln Chafee 0.11% -0.04%
33 Scott Walker 0.11% -0.02%
34 Bobby Jindal 0.11% -0.01%
34 Rick Perry 0.11% -0.01%
36 Nikki Haley 0.11% 0.00%
37 Mark Warner 0.10% 0.00%
37 David Petraeus 0.10% 0.00%
37 Kirsten Gillibrand 0.10% 0.00%
37 Rick Santorum 0.10% -0.06%
37 Janet Napolitano 0.10% 0.00%
37 Lawrence Lessig 0.10% 0.00%
43 Deez Nuts 0.10% 0.00% Satirical candidate
43 Kanye West 0.10% 0.00% Grammy Award winning rapper
43 Jim Gilmore 0.10% -0.02%
46 Bob McDonnell 0.03% -0.00%
47 John Kerry 0.03% -0.00%
48 Lindsey Graham 0.03% -0.00%
49 John Hickenlooper 0.01% 0.00%
49 Amy Klobuchar 0.01% 0.00%
49 Brian Schweitzer 0.01% 0.00%
49 Evan Bayh 0.01% 0.00%
49 Eric Cantor 0.01% 0.00%
49 Michelle Obama 0.01% 0.00%
49 Michele Bachmann 0.01% 0.00%
49 Ron Paul 0.01% 0.00%
49 Herman Cain 0.01% 0.00%
49 Mike Pence 0.01% 0.00%
49 Mitch Daniels 0.01% 0.00%
49 Kathleen Sebelius 0.01% 0.00%
49 Tim Kaine 0.01% 0.00%
49 George Clooney 0.01% 0.00%
49 Howard Stern 0.01% 0.00% King of all media
49 Julian Castro 0.01% 0.00%

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