Tuesday, 14 June 2016

EU Referendum - What the bookies think

What the bookies think

Odds given across various bookmakers (10bet, 32red, 888sport, bet365, betdaq, betfair, betfred, betvictor, betway, boylesports, bwin, coral, ladbrokes, marathon bet, matchbook, netbet, paddypower, skybet, sportingbet, stanjames, totesport, unibet, williamhill, winner) are meaned and then inverted to give the rough chance bookies as a gestalt reckon the chance of brexit is.

Chance of Brexit implied by aggregate bookie odds

This inflection ten days out is something similar to what I saw when tracking bookies odds for the Scottish Indyref.

Moving average of Opinion Polls

EU Opinion polling excluding unsure

EU Opinion polling including unsure

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