Monday 11 April 2016

Holyrood 2016 result predictions given polling (2016-04-10 update)

Current polling:

Moving average of latest polls for constituency vote:

Party Vote Share (%)
SNP 53.13%
Labour 21.33%
Conservative 15.29%
Liberal Democrat 5.62%
Green 2.30%
UKIP 1.75%
Scottish Christian 0.68%
CISTA 0.22%
Scottish Socialist 0.16%
TUSC 0.12%
Solidarity 0.02%
(31172 samples over 36 polls)

Moving average of latest polls for regional list vote:

Party Vote Share (%)
SNP 45.69%
Labour 20.33%
Conservative 14.99%
Green 8.04%
Liberal Democrat 5.86%
UKIP 3.26%
Scottish Socialist 1.21%
TUSC 0.48%
Scottish Christian 0.35%
Solidarity 0.17%
BNP 0.14%
CISTA 0.12%
Socialist Labour 0.12%
Scottish Pensioners 0.12%
(30934 samples over 36 polls)

Scotland Overall Summary:

Predicted outcome of Holyrood 2016 election given current polling:

SNP Labour Conservative Liberal Democrat Green Margo MacDonald UKIP
Constituency Seats 73 (+20) 0 (-15) 0 (-3) 0 (-2) 0 (n/c) 0 (n/c) 0 (n/c)
List Seats 0 (-16) 26 (+4) 16 (+4) 5 (+2) 8 (+6) 0 (-1) 1 (+1)
Total Seats 73 (+4) 26 (-11) 16 (+1) 5 (n/c) 8 (+6) 0 (-1) 1 (+1)

Candidate names go here:

SNP Labour Conservative Green Liberal Democrat UKIP
1 Aileen Campbell
(Clydesdale)
Alex Rowley
(Mid Scotland and Fife list)
Adam Tomkins
(Glasgow list)
Alison Johnstone
(Lothian list)
Alex Cole-Hamilton
(Lothian list)
UKIP candidate
(Highlands and Islands list)
2 Aileen McLeod
(Galloway & West Dumfries)
Anas Sarwar
(Glasgow list)
Alex Johnstone
(North East Scotland list)
Andy Wightman
(Lothian list)
Jamie Stone
(Highlands and Islands list)
-
3 Alasdair Allan
(Nah h-Eilanan an Iar)
Bill Butler
(Glasgow list)
Alexander Burnett
(North East Scotland list)
John Finnie
(Highlands and Islands list)
Jim Hume
(South Scotland list)
-
4 Alex Neil
(Airdrie & Shotts)
Claire Baker
(Mid Scotland and Fife list)
Douglas Ross
(Highlands and Islands list)
Kirsten Robb
(Central Scotland list)
Mike Rumbles
(North East Scotland list)
-
5 Alison Dickie
(Edinburgh Central)
Claudia Beamish
(South Scotland list)
Edward Mountain
(Highlands and Islands list)
Maggie Chapman
(North East Scotland list)
Willie Rennie
(Mid Scotland and Fife list)
-
6 Andy Doig
(Renfrewshire South)
Colin Smyth
(South Scotland list)
Jackson Carlaw
(West Scotland list)
Mark Ruskell
(Mid Scotland and Fife list)
- -
7 Angela Constance
(Almond Valley)
Craig Martin
(Central Scotland list)
Jamie Greene
(West Scotland list)
Patrick Harvie
(Glasgow list)
- -
8 Angus MacDonald
(Falkirk East)
David Stewart
(Highlands and Islands list)
John Scott
(South Scotland list)
Ross Greer
(West Scotland list)
- -
9 Annabel Ewing
(Cowdenbeath)
Elaine Smith
(Central Scotland list)
Liz Smith
(Mid Scotland and Fife list)
- - -
10 Ash Denham
(Edinburgh Eastern)
Iain Gray
(South Scotland list)
Margaret Mitchell
(Central Scotland list)
- - -
11 Ben Macpherson
(Edinburgh Northern & Leith)
Jackie Baillie
(West Scotland list)
Miles Briggs
(Lothian list)
- - -
12 Bill Kidd
(Glasgow Anniesland)
James Kelly
(Glasgow list)
Murdo Fraser
(Mid Scotland and Fife list)
- - -
13 Bob Doris
(Glasgow Maryhill & Springburn)
Jenny Marra
(North East Scotland list)
Oliver Mundell
(South Scotland list)
- - -
14 Bruce Crawford
(Stirling)
Johann Lamont
(Glasgow list)
Rachael Hamilton
(South Scotland list)
- - -
15 Christina McKelvie
(Hamilton, Larkhall & Stonehouse)
Ken MacIntosh
(West Scotland list)
Ross Thomson
(North East Scotland list)
- - -
16 Christine Grahame
(Midlothian South, Tweeddale & Lauderdale)
Kezia Dugdale
(Lothian list)
Ruth Davidson
(Lothian list)
- - -
17 Clare Adamson
(Motherwell & Wishaw)
Lewis MacDonald
(North East Scotland list)
- - - -
18 Clare Haughey
(Rutherglen)
Mark Griffin
(Central Scotland list)
- - - -
19 Colin Beattie
(Midlothian North & Musselburgh)
Mary Fee
(West Scotland list)
- - - -
20 DJ Johnston-Smith
(East Lothian)
Monica Lennon
(Central Scotland list)
- - - -
21 Danus Skene
(Shetland Islands)
Neil Bibby
(West Scotland list)
- - - -
22 David Torrance
(Kirkcaldy)
Neil Findlay
(Lothian list)
- - - -
23 Dennis Robertson
(Aberdeenshire West)
Pauline McNeill
(Glasgow list)
- - - -
24 Derek Mackay
(Renfrewshire North & West)
Rhoda Grant
(Highlands and Islands list)
- - - -
25 Donna Heddle
(Orkney Islands)
Richard Leonard
(Central Scotland list)
- - - -
26 Fergus Ewing
(Inverness & Nairn)
Thomas Docherty
(Mid Scotland and Fife list)
- - - -
27 Fiona Hyslop
(Linlithgow)
- - - - -
28 Fulton MacGregor
(Coatbridge & Chryston)
- - - - -
29 Gail Robertson
(Dumbarton)
- - - - -
30 Gail Ross
(Caithness Sutherland & Ross)
- - - - -
31 George Adam
(Paisley)
- - - - -
32 Gil Paterson
(Clydebank & Milngavie)
- - - - -
33 Gillian Martin
(Aberdeenshire East)
- - - - -
34 Gordon Macdonald
(Edinburgh Pentlands)
- - - - -
35 Graeme Dey
(Angus South)
- - - - -
36 Humza Yousaf
(Glasgow Pollok)
- - - - -
37 Ivan McKee
(Glasgow Provan)
- - - - -
38 James Dornan
(Glasgow Cathcart)
- - - - -
39 Jamie Hepburn
(Cumbernauld & Kilsyth)
- - - - -
40 Jeane Freeman
(Carrick, Cumnock & Doon Valley)
- - - - -
41 Jen Dunn
(Ayr)
- - - - -
42 Jenny Gilruth
(Mid Fife & Glenrothes)
- - - - -
43 Jim Eadie
(Edinburgh Southern)
- - - - -
44 Joan McAlpine
(Dumfriesshire)
- - - - -
45 Joe FitzPatrick
(Dundee City West)
- - - - -
46 John Mason
(Glasgow Shettleston)
- - - - -
47 John Swinney
(Perthshire North)
- - - - -
48 Katie Forbes
(Skye, Lochaber & Badenoch)
- - - - -
49 Keith Brown
(Clackmannanshire & Dunblane)
- - - - -
50 Kenny Gibson
(Cunninghame North)
- - - - -
51 Kevin Stewart
(Aberdeen Central)
- - - - -
52 Linda Fabiani
(East Kilbride)
- - - - -
53 Mairi Evans
(Angus North & Mearns)
- - - - -
54 Mark McDonald
(Aberdeen Donside)
- - - - -
55 Maureen Watt
(Aberdeen South & North Kincardine)
- - - - -
56 Michael Matheson
(Falkirk West)
- - - - -
57 Mike Russell
(Argyll & Bute)
- - - - -
58 Nicola Sturgeon
(Glasgow Southside)
- - - - -
59 Paul Wheelhouse
(Ettrick, Roxburgh & Berwickshire)
- - - - -
60 Richard Lochhead
(Moray)
- - - - -
61 Richard Lyle
(Uddingston & Bellshill)
- - - - -
62 Roderick Campbell
(North East Fife)
- - - - -
63 Rona Mackay
(Strathkelvin & Bearsden)
- - - - -
64 Roseanna Cunningham
(Perthshire South & Kinross-shire)
- - - - -
65 Ruth Maguire
(Cunninghame South)
- - - - -
66 Sandra White
(Glasgow Kelvin)
- - - - -
67 Shirley-Anne Somerville
(Dunfermline)
- - - - -
68 Shona Robison
(Dundee City East)
- - - - -
69 Stewart Maxwell
(Eastwood)
- - - - -
70 Stewart Stevenson
(Banffshire & Buchan Coast)
- - - - -
71 Stuart McMillan
(Greenock & Inverclyde)
- - - - -
72 Toni Giugliano
(Edinburgh Western)
- - - - -
73 Willie Coffey
(Kilmarnock & Irvine Valley)
- - - - -

Central Scotland

SNP Labour Conservative Liberal Democrat Green
Constituency Seats 9 (+3) 0 (-3) 0 (n/c) 0 (n/c) 0 (n/c)
List Seats 0 (-3) 5 (+2) 1 (n/c) 0 (n/c) 1 (+1)
Total Seats 9 (n/c) 5 (-1) 1 (n/c) 0 (n/c) 1 (+1)

SNP Labour Conservative Green
1 Alex Neil
(Airdrie & Shotts)
Craig Martin
(Central Scotland list)
Margaret Mitchell
(Central Scotland list)
Kirsten Robb
(Central Scotland list)
2 Angus MacDonald
(Falkirk East)
Elaine Smith
(Central Scotland list)
- -
3 Christina McKelvie
(Hamilton, Larkhall & Stonehouse)
Mark Griffin
(Central Scotland list)
- -
4 Clare Adamson
(Motherwell & Wishaw)
Monica Lennon
(Central Scotland list)
- -
5 Fulton MacGregor
(Coatbridge & Chryston)
Richard Leonard
(Central Scotland list)
- -
6 Jamie Hepburn
(Cumbernauld & Kilsyth)
- - -
7 Linda Fabiani
(East Kilbride)
- - -
8 Michael Matheson
(Falkirk West)
- - -
9 Richard Lyle
(Uddingston & Bellshill)
- - -

Moving average of poll subsamples for Central Scotland constituency vote:

Party Vote Share (%)
SNP 58.23%
Labour 24.59%
Conservative 10.56%
Liberal Democrat 2.33%
Green 2.23%
UKIP 1.15%
TUSC 0.00%
Scottish Socialist 0.00%
CISTA 0.00%
Scottish Christian 0.00%
(1656 samples over 18 polls)

Predicted Central Scotland Constituency results

Constituency 2011 Winner 2016 Prediction
Airdrie & Shotts SNP (50.2%) SNP (61.4%)
Coatbridge & Chryston Labour (52.2%) SNP (56.7%)
Cumbernauld & Kilsyth SNP (53.8%) SNP (63.3%)
East Kilbride SNP (48.0%) SNP (59.6%)
Falkirk East SNP (50.8%) SNP (61.3%)
Falkirk West SNP (55.3%) SNP (63.5%)
Hamilton, Larkhall & Stonehouse SNP (48.1%) SNP (59.9%)
Motherwell & Wishaw Labour (43.8%) SNP (54.6%)
Uddingston & Bellshill Labour (46.1%) SNP (57.7%)

Moving average of poll subsamples for Central Scotland regional vote:

Party Vote Share (%)
SNP 52.28%
Labour 25.81%
Conservative 9.27%
Green 5.80%
UKIP 3.00%
Liberal Democrat 2.45%
Scottish Socialist 1.09%
Solidarity 0.14%
TUSC 0.00%
Socialist Labour 0.00%
Scottish Pensioners 0.00%
CISTA 0.00%
Scottish Christian 0.00%
(1635 samples over 18 polls)

Predicted Central Scotland List Vote share

Party 2011 List vote (%) Predicted List vote (%)
SNP 46.35% 49.48%
Labour 35.31% 26.20%
Conservative 6.37% 8.37%
Green 2.41% 5.04%
Pensioners 2.48% 2.47%
UKIP 0.54% 2.43%
Liberal Democrat 1.42% 1.99%
Christian Party 1.36% 1.36%
Scottish Socialist 0.35% 1.04%
Others 0.81% 0.81%
Independant 0.35% 0.35%
Solidarity 0.24% 0.21%
BNP 0.95% 0.17%
Socialist Labour 1.06% 0.08%

Predicted Central Scotland additional members:

# 2011 Result 2016 Prediction
1 Labour Labour (Richard Leonard)
2 Labour Labour (Monica Lennon)
3 SNP Labour (Mark Griffin)
4 Conservative Conservative (Margaret Mitchell)
5 Labour Labour (Elaine Smith)
6 SNP Labour (Craig Martin)
7 SNP Green (Kirsten Robb)

Mid Scotland and Fife

SNP Labour Conservative Liberal Democrat Green
Constituency Seats 9 (+1) 0 (-1) 0 (n/c) 0 (n/c) 0 (n/c)
List Seats 0 (-1) 3 (n/c) 2 (n/c) 1 (n/c) 1 (+1)
Total Seats 9 (n/c) 3 (-1) 2 (n/c) 1 (n/c) 1 (+1)

SNP Labour Conservative Green Liberal Democrat
1 Annabel Ewing
(Cowdenbeath)
Alex Rowley
(Mid Scotland and Fife list)
Liz Smith
(Mid Scotland and Fife list)
Mark Ruskell
(Mid Scotland and Fife list)
Willie Rennie
(Mid Scotland and Fife list)
2 Bruce Crawford
(Stirling)
Claire Baker
(Mid Scotland and Fife list)
Murdo Fraser
(Mid Scotland and Fife list)
- -
3 David Torrance
(Kirkcaldy)
Thomas Docherty
(Mid Scotland and Fife list)
- - -
4 Jenny Gilruth
(Mid Fife & Glenrothes)
- - - -
5 John Swinney
(Perthshire North)
- - - -
6 Keith Brown
(Clackmannanshire & Dunblane)
- - - -
7 Roderick Campbell
(North East Fife)
- - - -
8 Roseanna Cunningham
(Perthshire South & Kinross-shire)
- - - -
9 Shirley-Anne Somerville
(Dunfermline)
- - - -

Moving average of poll subsamples for Mid Scotland and Fife constituency vote:

Party Vote Share (%)
SNP 53.73%
Labour 20.50%
Conservative 15.33%
Liberal Democrat 7.43%
UKIP 2.00%
Green 1.52%
CISTA 0.89%
TUSC 0.00%
Scottish Socialist 0.00%
Scottish Christian 0.00%
(1501 samples over 18 polls)

Predicted Mid Scotland and Fife Constituency results

Constituency 2011 Winner 2016 Prediction
Clackmannanshire & Dunblane SNP (48.3%) SNP (56.9%)
Cowdenbeath Labour (46.5%) SNP (54.0%)
Dunfermline SNP (37.6%) SNP (52.2%)
Kirkcaldy SNP (45.2%) SNP (56.2%)
Mid Fife & Glenrothes SNP (52.3%) SNP (58.5%)
North East Fife SNP (37.2%) SNP (49.4%)
Perthshire North SNP (60.8%) SNP (60.5%)
Perthshire South & Kinross-shire SNP (51.5%) SNP (56.3%)
Stirling SNP (48.9%) SNP (56.3%)

Moving average of poll subsamples for Mid Scotland and Fife regional vote:

Party Vote Share (%)
SNP 46.22%
Labour 19.11%
Conservative 14.52%
Liberal Democrat 7.87%
Green 7.83%
UKIP 3.14%
Socialist Labour 1.10%
Solidarity 0.45%
Scottish Socialist 0.24%
TUSC 0.00%
Scottish Pensioners 0.00%
CISTA 0.00%
Scottish Christian 0.00%
(1494 samples over 18 polls)

Predicted Mid Scotland and Fife List Vote share

Party 2011 List vote (%) Predicted List vote (%)
SNP 45.20% 44.60%
Labour 25.03% 18.42%
Conservative 14.12% 15.13%
Green 4.23% 7.48%
Liberal Democrat 5.85% 6.95%
UKIP 1.10% 3.38%
Pensioners 1.59% 1.48%
Socialist Labour 0.69% 0.59%
Scottish Socialist 0.32% 0.56%
Independant 0.57% 0.53%
Christian Party 0.30% 0.28%
Solidarity 0.08% 0.26%
Others 0.25% 0.23%
BNP 0.67% 0.11%

Predicted Mid Scotland and Fife additional members:

# 2011 Result 2016 Prediction
1 Conservative Labour (Alex Rowley)
2 Labour Conservative (Murdo Fraser)
3 Labour Labour (Claire Baker)
4 Conservative Conservative (Liz Smith)
5 Labour Green (Mark Ruskell)
6 Liberal Democrat Liberal Democrat (Willie Rennie)
7 SNP Labour (Thomas Docherty)

Lothian

SNP Labour Conservative Liberal Democrat Green Margo MacDonald
Constituency Seats 9 (+1) 0 (-1) 0 (n/c) 0 (n/c) 0 (n/c) 0 (n/c)
List Seats 0 (n/c) 2 (-1) 2 (n/c) 1 (+1) 2 (+1) 0 (-1)
Total Seats 9 (+1) 2 (-2) 2 (n/c) 1 (+1) 2 (+1) 0 (-1)

SNP Labour Conservative Green Liberal Democrat
1 Alison Dickie
(Edinburgh Central)
Kezia Dugdale
(Lothian list)
Miles Briggs
(Lothian list)
Alison Johnstone
(Lothian list)
Alex Cole-Hamilton
(Lothian list)
2 Angela Constance
(Almond Valley)
Neil Findlay
(Lothian list)
Ruth Davidson
(Lothian list)
Andy Wightman
(Lothian list)
-
3 Ash Denham
(Edinburgh Eastern)
- - - -
4 Ben Macpherson
(Edinburgh Northern & Leith)
- - - -
5 Colin Beattie
(Midlothian North & Musselburgh)
- - - -
6 Fiona Hyslop
(Linlithgow)
- - - -
7 Gordon Macdonald
(Edinburgh Pentlands)
- - - -
8 Jim Eadie
(Edinburgh Southern)
- - - -
9 Toni Giugliano
(Edinburgh Western)
- - - -

Moving average of poll subsamples for Lothian constituency vote:

Party Vote Share (%)
SNP 49.11%
Labour 22.90%
Conservative 15.43%
Liberal Democrat 7.99%
Green 3.60%
Scottish Christian 1.88%
UKIP 1.30%
TUSC 0.00%
Scottish Socialist 0.00%
CISTA 0.00%
(2062 samples over 18 polls)

Predicted Lothian Constituency results

Constituency 2011 Winner 2016 Prediction
Almond Valley SNP (54.3%) SNP (58.2%)
Edinburgh Central SNP (32.7%) SNP (46.7%)
Edinburgh Eastern SNP (47.4%) SNP (55.1%)
Edinburgh Northern & Leith Labour (41.6%) SNP (51.1%)
Edinburgh Pentlands SNP (37.3%) SNP (47.6%)
Edinburgh Southern SNP (29.4%) SNP (44.6%)
Edinburgh Western SNP (35.8%) SNP (48.3%)
Linlithgow SNP (49.8%) SNP (55.7%)
Midlothian North & Musselburgh SNP (47.2%) SNP (53.9%)

Moving average of poll subsamples for Lothian regional vote:

Party Vote Share (%)
SNP 39.85%
Labour 18.55%
Conservative 15.08%
Green 13.45%
Liberal Democrat 9.30%
UKIP 2.95%
TUSC 0.63%
CISTA 0.58%
Scottish Socialist 0.50%
Solidarity 0.00%
Socialist Labour 0.00%
Scottish Pensioners 0.00%
Scottish Christian 0.00%
(2073 samples over 18 polls)

Predicted Lothian List Vote share

Party 2011 List vote (%) Predicted List vote (%)
SNP 39.18% 39.91%
Labour 24.91% 18.74%
Conservative 11.66% 14.49%
Green 7.59% 13.60%
Liberal Democrat 5.50% 7.69%
UKIP 0.64% 2.61%
Pensioners 1.14% 1.13%
Scottish Socialist 0.42% 0.85%
Others 0.44% 0.44%
Christian Party 0.32% 0.32%
BNP 0.70% 0.12%
Solidarity 0.12% 0.07%
Socialist Labour 0.59% 0.04%
Margo MacDonald 6.79% 0.00%

Predicted Lothian additional members:

# 2011 Result 2016 Prediction
1 Labour Labour (Kezia Dugdale)
2 Conservative Conservative (Ruth Davidson)
3 Labour Green (Alison Johnstone)
4 Green Labour (Neil Findlay)
5 Margo MacDonald Liberal Democrat (Alex Cole-Hamilton)
6 Labour Conservative (Miles Briggs)
7 Conservative Green (Andy Wightman)

Highlands and Islands

SNP Labour Conservative Liberal Democrat Green UKIP
Constituency Seats 8 (+2) 0 (n/c) 0 (n/c) 0 (-2) 0 (n/c) 0 (n/c)
List Seats 0 (-3) 2 (n/c) 2 (n/c) 1 (+1) 1 (+1) 1 (+1)
Total Seats 8 (-1) 2 (n/c) 2 (n/c) 1 (-1) 1 (+1) 1 (+1)

SNP Conservative Labour Liberal Democrat Green UKIP
1 Alasdair Allan
(Nah h-Eilanan an Iar)
Douglas Ross
(Highlands and Islands list)
David Stewart
(Highlands and Islands list)
Jamie Stone
(Highlands and Islands list)
John Finnie
(Highlands and Islands list)
UKIP candidate
(Highlands and Islands list)
2 Danus Skene
(Shetland Islands)
Edward Mountain
(Highlands and Islands list)
Rhoda Grant
(Highlands and Islands list)
- - -
3 Donna Heddle
(Orkney Islands)
- - - - -
4 Fergus Ewing
(Inverness & Nairn)
- - - - -
5 Gail Ross
(Caithness Sutherland & Ross)
- - - - -
6 Katie Forbes
(Skye, Lochaber & Badenoch)
- - - - -
7 Mike Russell
(Argyll & Bute)
- - - - -
8 Richard Lochhead
(Moray)
- - - - -

Moving average of poll subsamples for Highlands and Islands constituency vote:

Party Vote Share (%)
SNP 56.71%
Labour 13.18%
Conservative 12.85%
Liberal Democrat 10.77%
Scottish Christian 4.35%
UKIP 1.25%
Green 1.13%
TUSC 0.00%
Scottish Socialist 0.00%
CISTA 0.00%
(1062 samples over 18 polls)

Predicted Highlands and Islands Constituency results

Constituency 2011 Winner 2016 Prediction
Argyll & Bute SNP (50.6%) SNP (58.2%)
Caithness Sutherland & Ross SNP (48.4%) SNP (59.6%)
Inverness & Nairn SNP (51.5%) SNP (59.5%)
Moray SNP (58.8%) SNP (61.6%)
Nah h-Eilanan an Iar SNP (65.3%) SNP (68.1%)
Orkney Islands Liberal Democrat (35.7%) SNP (40.0%)
Shetland Islands Liberal Democrat (47.5%) SNP (32.0%)
Skye, Lochaber & Badenoch SNP (46.2%) SNP (58.0%)

Moving average of poll subsamples for Highlands and Islands regional vote:

Party Vote Share (%)
SNP 43.97%
Conservative 14.66%
Labour 13.76%
Liberal Democrat 10.67%
Green 9.09%
UKIP 5.73%
Scottish Christian 2.95%
Scottish Socialist 0.19%
TUSC 0.00%
Solidarity 0.00%
Socialist Labour 0.00%
Scottish Pensioners 0.00%
CISTA 0.00%
(1007 samples over 18 polls)

Predicted Highlands and Islands List Vote share

Party 2011 List vote (%) Predicted List vote (%)
SNP 47.53% 43.52%
Conservative 11.64% 13.48%
Labour 14.46% 11.73%
Liberal Democrat 12.14% 11.32%
Green 5.07% 8.62%
UKIP 1.88% 5.82%
Christian Party 1.98% 1.75%
Others 1.93% 1.71%
Pensioners 1.55% 1.37%
Scottish Socialist 0.28% 0.46%
BNP 0.63% 0.10%
Solidarity 0.11% 0.06%
Socialist Labour 0.79% 0.05%
Independant 0.00% 0.00%

Predicted Highlands and Islands additional members:

# 2011 Result 2016 Prediction
1 Labour Conservative (Douglas Ross)
2 Conservative Labour (Rhoda Grant)
3 Labour Liberal Democrat (Jamie Stone)
4 SNP Green (John Finnie)
5 SNP Conservative (Edward Mountain)
6 Conservative Labour (David Stewart)
7 SNP UKIP

North East Scotland

SNP Labour Conservative Liberal Democrat Green
Constituency Seats 10 (n/c) 0 (n/c) 0 (n/c) 0 (n/c) 0 (n/c)
List Seats 0 (-1) 2 (-1) 3 (+1) 1 (n/c) 1 (+1)
Total Seats 10 (-1) 2 (-1) 3 (+1) 1 (n/c) 1 (+1)

SNP Conservative Labour Green Liberal Democrat
1 Dennis Robertson
(Aberdeenshire West)
Alex Johnstone
(North East Scotland list)
Jenny Marra
(North East Scotland list)
Maggie Chapman
(North East Scotland list)
Mike Rumbles
(North East Scotland list)
2 Gillian Martin
(Aberdeenshire East)
Alexander Burnett
(North East Scotland list)
Lewis MacDonald
(North East Scotland list)
- -
3 Graeme Dey
(Angus South)
Ross Thomson
(North East Scotland list)
- - -
4 Joe FitzPatrick
(Dundee City West)
- - - -
5 Kevin Stewart
(Aberdeen Central)
- - - -
6 Mairi Evans
(Angus North & Mearns)
- - - -
7 Mark McDonald
(Aberdeen Donside)
- - - -
8 Maureen Watt
(Aberdeen South & North Kincardine)
- - - -
9 Shona Robison
(Dundee City East)
- - - -
10 Stewart Stevenson
(Banffshire & Buchan Coast)
- - - -

Moving average of poll subsamples for North East Scotland constituency vote:

Party Vote Share (%)
SNP 60.31%
Labour 16.18%
Conservative 15.90%
Liberal Democrat 5.23%
Green 1.38%
UKIP 0.86%
TUSC 0.00%
Scottish Socialist 0.00%
CISTA 0.00%
Scottish Christian 0.00%
(1739 samples over 18 polls)

Predicted North East Scotland Constituency results

Constituency 2011 Winner 2016 Prediction
Aberdeen Central SNP (40.0%) SNP (55.7%)
Aberdeen Donside SNP (55.3%) SNP (62.8%)
Aberdeen South & North Kincardine SNP (41.7%) SNP (54.0%)
Aberdeenshire East SNP (64.5%) SNP (66.6%)
Aberdeenshire West SNP (42.6%) SNP (56.1%)
Angus North & Mearns SNP (54.8%) SNP (61.2%)
Angus South SNP (58.5%) SNP (61.6%)
Banffshire & Buchan Coast SNP (67.2%) SNP (67.1%)
Dundee City East SNP (64.2%) SNP (67.2%)
Dundee City West SNP (57.6%) SNP (65.0%)

Moving average of poll subsamples for North East Scotland regional vote:

Party Vote Share (%)
SNP 54.26%
Conservative 15.18%
Labour 14.86%
Green 6.52%
Liberal Democrat 5.02%
UKIP 3.65%
TUSC 2.36%
Scottish Socialist 0.22%
Solidarity 0.00%
Socialist Labour 0.00%
Scottish Pensioners 0.00%
CISTA 0.00%
Scottish Christian 0.00%
(1712 samples over 18 polls)

Predicted North East Scotland List Vote share

Party 2011 List vote (%) Predicted List vote (%)
SNP 52.71% 51.80%
Conservative 14.11% 15.32%
Labour 16.44% 13.15%
Green 3.90% 6.50%
Liberal Democrat 6.81% 5.99%
UKIP 0.93% 3.32%
Pensioners 1.66% 1.52%
Christian Party 0.81% 0.74%
Scottish Socialist 0.42% 0.67%
Independant 0.44% 0.41%
Others 0.42% 0.38%
BNP 0.72% 0.12%
Solidarity 0.11% 0.06%
Socialist Labour 0.55% 0.04%

Predicted North East Scotland additional members:

# 2011 Result 2016 Prediction
1 Labour Conservative (Alex Johnstone)
2 Conservative Labour (Jenny Marra)
3 Labour Conservative (Alexander Burnett)
4 Conservative Labour (Lewis MacDonald)
5 Liberal Democrat Green (Maggie Chapman)
6 Labour Liberal Democrat (Mike Rumbles)
7 SNP Conservative (Ross Thomson)

West Scotland

SNP Labour Conservative Liberal Democrat Green
Constituency Seats 10 (+4) 0 (-4) 0 (n/c) 0 (n/c) 0 (n/c)
List Seats 0 (-2) 4 (+1) 2 (n/c) 0 (n/c) 1 (+1)
Total Seats 10 (+2) 4 (-3) 2 (n/c) 0 (n/c) 1 (+1)

SNP Labour Conservative Green
1 Andy Doig
(Renfrewshire South)
Jackie Baillie
(West Scotland list)
Jackson Carlaw
(West Scotland list)
Ross Greer
(West Scotland list)
2 Derek Mackay
(Renfrewshire North & West)
Ken MacIntosh
(West Scotland list)
Jamie Greene
(West Scotland list)
-
3 Gail Robertson
(Dumbarton)
Mary Fee
(West Scotland list)
- -
4 George Adam
(Paisley)
Neil Bibby
(West Scotland list)
- -
5 Gil Paterson
(Clydebank & Milngavie)
- - -
6 Kenny Gibson
(Cunninghame North)
- - -
7 Rona Mackay
(Strathkelvin & Bearsden)
- - -
8 Ruth Maguire
(Cunninghame South)
- - -
9 Stewart Maxwell
(Eastwood)
- - -
10 Stuart McMillan
(Greenock & Inverclyde)
- - -

Moving average of poll subsamples for West Scotland constituency vote:

Party Vote Share (%)
SNP 57.34%
Labour 23.37%
Conservative 14.38%
UKIP 2.37%
Liberal Democrat 2.09%
Green 1.58%
Scottish Christian 0.93%
Scottish Socialist 0.87%
TUSC 0.00%
CISTA 0.00%
(1660 samples over 18 polls)

Predicted West Scotland Constituency results

Constituency 2011 Winner 2016 Prediction
Clydebank & Milngavie SNP (43.3%) SNP (56.6%)
Cunninghame North SNP (52.6%) SNP (60.5%)
Cunninghame South SNP (49.8%) SNP (60.0%)
Dumbarton Labour (44.1%) SNP (52.9%)
Eastwood Labour (39.7%) SNP (44.5%)
Greenock & Inverclyde Labour (43.9%) SNP (56.4%)
Paisley SNP (42.6%) SNP (56.5%)
Renfrewshire North & West SNP (41.9%) SNP (54.8%)
Renfrewshire South Labour (48.1%) SNP (54.1%)
Strathkelvin & Bearsden SNP (42.2%) SNP (55.7%)

Moving average of poll subsamples for West Scotland regional vote:

Party Vote Share (%)
SNP 49.54%
Labour 24.05%
Conservative 13.56%
Green 6.35%
Liberal Democrat 2.82%
UKIP 2.65%
Scottish Christian 0.83%
Scottish Socialist 0.35%
Solidarity 0.09%
TUSC 0.00%
Socialist Labour 0.00%
Scottish Pensioners 0.00%
CISTA 0.00%
(1638 samples over 18 polls)

Predicted West Scotland List Vote share

Party 2011 List vote (%) Predicted List vote (%)
SNP 41.54% 45.38%
Labour 32.77% 24.17%
Conservative 12.75% 14.20%
Green 2.98% 5.80%
Liberal Democrat 3.24% 3.17%
UKIP 0.71% 2.54%
Pensioners 1.69% 1.64%
Scottish Socialist 0.62% 1.05%
Christian Party 0.87% 0.85%
Others 0.73% 0.71%
Independant 0.16% 0.16%
Solidarity 0.16% 0.13%
BNP 0.77% 0.13%
Socialist Labour 1.01% 0.07%

Predicted West Scotland additional members:

# 2011 Result 2016 Prediction
1 Conservative Labour (Jackie Baillie)
2 Labour Conservative (Jackson Carlaw)
3 Conservative Labour (Neil Bibby)
4 SNP Labour (Mary Fee)
5 Labour Conservative (Jamie Greene)
6 SNP Labour (Ken MacIntosh)
7 Labour Green (Ross Greer)

South Scotland

SNP Labour Conservative Liberal Democrat Green
Constituency Seats 9 (+5) 0 (-2) 0 (-3) 0 (n/c) 0 (n/c)
List Seats 0 (-4) 3 (+1) 3 (+3) 1 (n/c) 0 (n/c)
Total Seats 9 (+1) 3 (-1) 3 (n/c) 1 (n/c) 0 (n/c)

SNP Conservative Labour Liberal Democrat
1 Aileen Campbell
(Clydesdale)
John Scott
(South Scotland list)
Claudia Beamish
(South Scotland list)
Jim Hume
(South Scotland list)
2 Aileen McLeod
(Galloway & West Dumfries)
Oliver Mundell
(South Scotland list)
Colin Smyth
(South Scotland list)
-
3 Christine Grahame
(Midlothian South, Tweeddale & Lauderdale)
Rachael Hamilton
(South Scotland list)
Iain Gray
(South Scotland list)
-
4 DJ Johnston-Smith
(East Lothian)
- - -
5 Jeane Freeman
(Carrick, Cumnock & Doon Valley)
- - -
6 Jen Dunn
(Ayr)
- - -
7 Joan McAlpine
(Dumfriesshire)
- - -
8 Paul Wheelhouse
(Ettrick, Roxburgh & Berwickshire)
- - -
9 Willie Coffey
(Kilmarnock & Irvine Valley)
- - -

Moving average of poll subsamples for South Scotland constituency vote:

Party Vote Share (%)
SNP 47.68%
Conservative 22.52%
Labour 21.21%
Liberal Democrat 6.70%
UKIP 0.73%
Green 0.46%
TUSC 0.00%
Scottish Socialist 0.00%
CISTA 0.00%
Scottish Christian 0.00%
(1301 samples over 18 polls)

Predicted South Scotland Constituency results

Constituency 2011 Winner 2016 Prediction
Ayr Conservative (38.9%) SNP (44.8%)
Carrick, Cumnock & Doon Valley SNP (46.2%) SNP (52.3%)
Clydesdale SNP (49.9%) SNP (56.0%)
Dumfriesshire Labour (39.6%) SNP (40.7%)
East Lothian Labour (39.0%) SNP (48.3%)
Ettrick, Roxburgh & Berwickshire Conservative (44.9%) SNP (39.4%)
Galloway & West Dumfries Conservative (36.9%) SNP (44.2%)
Kilmarnock & Irvine Valley SNP (53.2%) SNP (56.1%)
Midlothian South, Tweeddale & Lauderdale SNP (43.5%) SNP (51.1%)

Moving average of poll subsamples for South Scotland regional vote:

Party Vote Share (%)
SNP 43.90%
Labour 18.89%
Conservative 17.36%
Liberal Democrat 8.24%
Green 6.48%
UKIP 4.42%
Scottish Pensioners 1.59%
Solidarity 0.13%
Scottish Socialist 0.09%
TUSC 0.00%
Socialist Labour 0.00%
CISTA 0.00%
Scottish Christian 0.00%
(1306 samples over 18 polls)

Predicted South Scotland List Vote share

Party 2011 List vote (%) Predicted List vote (%)
SNP 40.98% 41.78%
Conservative 19.49% 19.73%
Labour 25.32% 18.58%
Liberal Democrat 5.41% 6.96%
Green 3.06% 5.87%
UKIP 1.16% 4.15%
Pensioners 1.58% 1.49%
Christian Party 0.69% 0.65%
Scottish Socialist 0.25% 0.39%
Solidarity 0.29% 0.22%
BNP 0.72% 0.12%
Socialist Labour 1.04% 0.07%
Independant 0.00% 0.00%
Others 0.00% 0.00%

Predicted South Scotland additional members:

# 2011 Result 2016 Prediction
1 Labour Conservative (John Scott)
2 SNP Labour (Iain Gray)
3 SNP Conservative (Oliver Mundell)
4 Labour Labour (Claudia Beamish)
5 SNP Liberal Democrat (Jim Hume)
6 Liberal Democrat Conservative (Rachael Hamilton)
7 SNP Labour (Colin Smyth)

Glasgow

SNP Labour Conservative Liberal Democrat Green
Constituency Seats 9 (+4) 0 (-4) 0 (n/c) 0 (n/c) 0 (n/c)
List Seats 0 (-2) 5 (+2) 1 (n/c) 0 (n/c) 1 (n/c)
Total Seats 9 (+2) 5 (-2) 1 (n/c) 0 (n/c) 1 (n/c)

SNP Labour Green Conservative
1 Bill Kidd
(Glasgow Anniesland)
Anas Sarwar
(Glasgow list)
Patrick Harvie
(Glasgow list)
Adam Tomkins
(Glasgow list)
2 Bob Doris
(Glasgow Maryhill & Springburn)
Bill Butler
(Glasgow list)
- -
3 Clare Haughey
(Rutherglen)
James Kelly
(Glasgow list)
- -
4 Humza Yousaf
(Glasgow Pollok)
Johann Lamont
(Glasgow list)
- -
5 Ivan McKee
(Glasgow Provan)
Pauline McNeill
(Glasgow list)
- -
6 James Dornan
(Glasgow Cathcart)
- - -
7 John Mason
(Glasgow Shettleston)
- - -
8 Nicola Sturgeon
(Glasgow Southside)
- - -
9 Sandra White
(Glasgow Kelvin)
- - -

Moving average of poll subsamples for Glasgow constituency vote:

Party Vote Share (%)
SNP 56.12%
Labour 27.43%
Conservative 8.81%
Green 3.52%
Liberal Democrat 3.43%
Scottish Socialist 0.94%
TUSC 0.89%
UKIP 0.85%
CISTA 0.77%
Scottish Christian 0.00%
(1644 samples over 18 polls)

Predicted Glasgow Constituency results

Constituency 2011 Winner 2016 Prediction
Glasgow Anniesland SNP (43.2%) SNP (56.1%)
Glasgow Cathcart SNP (45.5%) SNP (56.9%)
Glasgow Kelvin SNP (43.3%) SNP (56.1%)
Glasgow Maryhill & Springburn Labour (48.1%) SNP (56.2%)
Glasgow Pollok Labour (47.5%) SNP (57.7%)
Glasgow Provan Labour (52.3%) SNP (56.3%)
Glasgow Shettleston SNP (47.8%) SNP (59.2%)
Glasgow Southside SNP (54.4%) SNP (62.0%)
Rutherglen Labour (46.1%) SNP (53.9%)

Moving average of poll subsamples for Glasgow regional vote:

Party Vote Share (%)
SNP 45.27%
Labour 27.12%
Green 9.79%
Conservative 8.78%
Liberal Democrat 4.00%
UKIP 3.53%
CISTA 1.87%
Scottish Socialist 1.14%
TUSC 0.93%
Solidarity 0.09%
Socialist Labour 0.00%
Scottish Pensioners 0.00%
Scottish Christian 0.00%
(1623 samples over 18 polls)

Predicted Glasgow List Vote share

Party 2011 List vote (%) Predicted List vote (%)
SNP 39.82% 41.67%
Labour 34.99% 26.06%
Green 5.97% 9.99%
Conservative 6.11% 7.79%
Others 4.45% 4.26%
Liberal Democrat 2.55% 3.31%
UKIP 0.54% 2.63%
Pensioners 1.80% 1.72%
Scottish Socialist 0.65% 1.46%
Christian Party 0.72% 0.69%
BNP 1.16% 0.20%
Independant 0.16% 0.16%
Socialist Labour 1.09% 0.07%
Solidarity 0.00% 0.00%

Predicted Glasgow additional members:

# 2011 Result 2016 Prediction
1 Labour Labour (Anas Sarwar)
2 SNP Labour (Johann Lamont)
3 Conservative Green (Patrick Harvie)
4 Green Labour (James Kelly)
5 Labour Conservative (Adam Tomkins)
6 SNP Labour (Pauline McNeill)
7 Labour Labour (Bill Butler)

No comments:

Post a Comment