Obviously, it's more than a bit early for doing projections like this. Having written the algorithm for implementing the Holyrood FPTP/AMR system and applying it 2011 data to check that I was understanding it correctly, the effort to apply current polling to predict the 2016 result was minimal. Take with a few kilograms of salt.
Current polling:
Moving average of latest polls for constituency vote:
| Party | Vote Share (%) |
| SNP | 50.23% |
| Labour | 24.57% |
| Conservative | 12.58% |
| Liberal Democrat | 5.11% |
Moving average of latest polls for regional list vote:
| Party | Vote Share (%) |
| SNP | 44.19% |
| Labour | 23.26% |
| Conservative | 13.10% |
| Green | 8.75% |
| Liberal Democrat | 5.45% |
| UKIP | 3.16% |
| Scottish Socialist | 1.69% |
Scotland Overall Summary:
| SNP | Labour | Conservative | Liberal Democrat | Green | Margo MacDonald | UKIP | |
| Constituency Seats | 69 (+16) | 2 (-13) | 1 (-2) | 1 (-1) | 0 (=) | 0 (=) | 0 (=) |
| List Seats | 0 (-16) | 28 (+6) | 15 (+3) | 4 (+1) | 8 (+6) | 0 (-1) | 1 (+1) |
| Total Seats | 69 (=) | 30 (-7) | 16 (+1) | 5 (=) | 8 (+6) | 0 (-1) | 1 (+1) |
Central Scotland
| SNP | Labour | Conservative | Liberal Democrat | Green | |
| Constituency Seats | 9 (+3) | 0 (-3) | 0 (=) | 0 (=) | 0 (=) |
| List Seats | 0 (-3) | 6 (+3) | 1 (=) | 0 (=) | 0 (=) |
| Total Seats | 9 (=) | 6 (=) | 1 (=) | 0 (=) | 0 (=) |
Central Scotland Constituency results
| Constituency | 2011 Winner | 2016 Prediction |
| Airdrie & Shotts | SNP (50.2%) | SNP (58.7%) |
| Coatbridge & Chryston | Labour (52.2%) | SNP (49.0%) |
| Cumbernauld & Kilsyth | SNP (53.8%) | SNP (62.2%) |
| East Kilbride | SNP (48.0%) | SNP (56.2%) |
| Falkirk East | SNP (50.8%) | SNP (59.1%) |
| Falkirk West | SNP (55.3%) | SNP (63.5%) |
| Hamilton, Larkhall & Stonehouse | SNP (48.1%) | SNP (56.4%) |
| Motherwell & Wishaw | Labour (43.8%) | SNP (49.1%) |
| Uddingston & Bellshill | Labour (46.1%) | SNP (51.7%) |
Central Scotland List Vote share
| Party | 2011 List vote (%) | Predicted List vote (%) |
| SNP | 46.35% | 45.89% |
| Labour | 35.31% | 30.80% |
| Conservative | 6.37% | 6.66% |
| Green | 2.41% | 4.77% |
| Pensioners | 2.48% | 2.45% |
| UKIP | 0.54% | 1.85% |
| Liberal Democrat | 1.42% | 1.47% |
| Scottish Socialist | 0.35% | 1.41% |
| Christian Party | 1.36% | 1.34% |
| Socialist Labour | 1.06% | 1.05% |
| BNP | 0.95% | 0.94% |
| Others | 0.81% | 0.80% |
| Independant | 0.35% | 0.35% |
| Solidarity | 0.24% | 0.24% |
Lothian
| SNP | Labour | Conservative | Liberal Democrat | Green | Margo MacDonald | |
| Constituency Seats | 9 (+1) | 0 (-1) | 0 (=) | 0 (=) | 0 (=) | 0 (=) |
| List Seats | 0 (=) | 3 (=) | 2 (=) | 0 (=) | 2 (+1) | 0 (-1) |
| Total Seats | 9 (+1) | 3 (-1) | 2 (=) | 0 (=) | 2 (+1) | 0 (-1) |
Lothian Constituency results
| Constituency | 2011 Winner | 2016 Prediction |
| Almond Valley | SNP (54.3%) | SNP (62.5%) |
| Edinburgh Central | SNP (32.7%) | SNP (41.3%) |
| Edinburgh Eastern | SNP (47.4%) | SNP (55.9%) |
| Edinburgh Northern & Leith | Labour (41.6%) | SNP (48.4%) |
| Edinburgh Pentlands | SNP (37.3%) | SNP (44.2%) |
| Edinburgh Southern | SNP (29.4%) | SNP (37.7%) |
| Edinburgh Western | SNP (35.8%) | SNP (45.1%) |
| Linlithgow | SNP (49.8%) | SNP (58.0%) |
| Midlothian North & Musselburgh | SNP (47.2%) | SNP (55.4%) |
Lothian List Vote share
| Party | 2011 List vote (%) | Predicted List vote (%) |
| SNP | 39.18% | 38.58% |
| Labour | 24.91% | 21.61% |
| Green | 7.59% | 14.92% |
| Conservative | 11.66% | 12.13% |
| Liberal Democrat | 5.50% | 5.66% |
| UKIP | 0.64% | 2.19% |
| Scottish Socialist | 0.42% | 1.67% |
| Pensioners | 1.14% | 1.11% |
| BNP | 0.70% | 0.69% |
| Socialist Labour | 0.59% | 0.58% |
| Others | 0.44% | 0.43% |
| Christian Party | 0.32% | 0.32% |
| Solidarity | 0.12% | 0.11% |
| Margo MacDonald | 6.79% | 0.00% |
Highlands and islands
| SNP | Labour | Conservative | Liberal Democrat | Green | UKIP | |
| Constituency Seats | 7 (+1) | 0 (=) | 0 (=) | 1 (-1) | 0 (=) | 0 (=) |
| List Seats | 0 (-3) | 2 (=) | 2 (=) | 1 (+1) | 1 (+1) | 1 (+1) |
| Total Seats | 7 (-2) | 2 (=) | 2 (=) | 2 (=) | 1 (+1) | 1 (+1) |
Highlands and islands Constituency results
| Constituency | 2011 Winner | 2016 Prediction |
| Argyll & Bute | SNP (50.6%) | SNP (58.4%) |
| Caithness Sutherland & Ross | SNP (48.4%) | SNP (58.2%) |
| Inverness & Nairn | SNP (51.5%) | SNP (59.8%) |
| Moray | SNP (58.8%) | SNP (65.2%) |
| Nah h-Eilanan an Iar | SNP (65.3%) | SNP (72.6%) |
| Orkney Islands | Liberal Democrat (35.7%) | SNP (31.6%) |
| Shetland Islands | Liberal Democrat (47.5%) | Liberal Democrat (37.1%) |
| Skye, Lochaber & Badenoch | SNP (46.2%) | SNP (56.6%) |
Highlands and islands List Vote share
| Party | 2011 List vote (%) | Predicted List vote (%) |
| SNP | 47.53% | 43.21% |
| Labour | 14.46% | 11.58% |
| Liberal Democrat | 12.14% | 11.52% |
| Conservative | 11.64% | 11.18% |
| Green | 5.07% | 9.20% |
| UKIP | 1.88% | 5.92% |
| Christian Party | 1.98% | 1.79% |
| Others | 1.93% | 1.75% |
| Pensioners | 1.55% | 1.40% |
| Scottish Socialist | 0.28% | 1.05% |
| Socialist Labour | 0.79% | 0.71% |
| BNP | 0.63% | 0.57% |
| Solidarity | 0.11% | 0.10% |
| Independant | 0.00% | 0.00% |
North East Scotland
| SNP | Labour | Conservative | Liberal Democrat | Green | |
| Constituency Seats | 10 (=) | 0 (=) | 0 (=) | 0 (=) | 0 (=) |
| List Seats | 0 (-1) | 2 (-1) | 3 (+1) | 1 (=) | 1 (+1) |
| Total Seats | 10 (-1) | 2 (-1) | 3 (+1) | 1 (=) | 1 (+1) |
North East Scotland Constituency results
| Constituency | 2011 Winner | 2016 Prediction |
| Aberdeen Central | SNP (40.0%) | SNP (48.5%) |
| Aberdeen Donside | SNP (55.3%) | SNP (63.3%) |
| Aberdeen South & North Kincardine | SNP (41.7%) | SNP (49.9%) |
| Aberdeenshire East | SNP (64.5%) | SNP (72.2%) |
| Aberdeenshire West | SNP (42.6%) | SNP (51.9%) |
| Angus North & Mearns | SNP (54.8%) | SNP (61.8%) |
| Angus South | SNP (58.5%) | SNP (64.6%) |
| Banffshire & Buchan Coast | SNP (67.2%) | SNP (73.2%) |
| Dundee City East | SNP (64.2%) | SNP (71.3%) |
| Dundee City West | SNP (57.6%) | SNP (65.8%) |
North East Scotland List Vote share
| Party | 2011 List vote (%) | Predicted List vote (%) |
| SNP | 52.71% | 49.46% |
| Conservative | 14.11% | 13.99% |
| Labour | 16.44% | 13.59% |
| Green | 3.90% | 7.30% |
| Liberal Democrat | 6.81% | 6.67% |
| UKIP | 0.93% | 3.01% |
| Scottish Socialist | 0.42% | 1.59% |
| Pensioners | 1.66% | 1.55% |
| Christian Party | 0.81% | 0.76% |
| BNP | 0.72% | 0.67% |
| Socialist Labour | 0.55% | 0.51% |
| Independant | 0.44% | 0.41% |
| Others | 0.42% | 0.39% |
| Solidarity | 0.11% | 0.10% |
West Scotland
| SNP | Labour | Conservative | Liberal Democrat | Green | |
| Constituency Seats | 9 (+3) | 1 (-3) | 0 (=) | 0 (=) | 0 (=) |
| List Seats | 0 (-2) | 4 (+1) | 2 (=) | 0 (=) | 1 (+1) |
| Total Seats | 9 (+1) | 5 (-2) | 2 (=) | 0 (=) | 1 (+1) |
West Scotland Constituency results
| Constituency | 2011 Winner | 2016 Prediction |
| Clydebank & Milngavie | SNP (43.3%) | SNP (51.9%) |
| Cunninghame North | SNP (52.6%) | SNP (60.3%) |
| Cunninghame South | SNP (49.8%) | SNP (58.2%) |
| Dumbarton | Labour (44.1%) | SNP (46.1%) |
| Eastwood | Labour (39.7%) | Labour (34.3%) |
| Greenock & Inverclyde | Labour (43.9%) | SNP (50.9%) |
| Paisley | SNP (42.6%) | SNP (51.4%) |
| Renfrewshire North & West | SNP (41.9%) | SNP (49.4%) |
| Renfrewshire South | Labour (48.1%) | SNP (46.6%) |
| Strathkelvin & Bearsden | SNP (42.2%) | SNP (50.7%) |
West Scotland List Vote share
| Party | 2011 List vote (%) | Predicted List vote (%) |
| SNP | 41.54% | 40.12% |
| Labour | 32.77% | 27.88% |
| Conservative | 12.75% | 13.01% |
| Green | 2.98% | 5.74% |
| Liberal Democrat | 3.24% | 3.27% |
| Scottish Socialist | 0.62% | 2.43% |
| UKIP | 0.71% | 2.37% |
| Pensioners | 1.69% | 1.63% |
| Socialist Labour | 1.01% | 0.98% |
| Christian Party | 0.87% | 0.84% |
| BNP | 0.77% | 0.74% |
| Others | 0.73% | 0.70% |
| Independant | 0.16% | 0.16% |
| Solidarity | 0.16% | 0.15% |
South Scotland
| SNP | Labour | Conservative | Liberal Democrat | Green | |
| Constituency Seats | 7 (+3) | 1 (-1) | 1 (-2) | 0 (=) | 0 (=) |
| List Seats | 0 (-4) | 3 (+1) | 2 (+2) | 1 (=) | 1 (+1) |
| Total Seats | 7 (-1) | 4 (=) | 3 (=) | 1 (=) | 1 (+1) |
South Scotland Constituency results
| Constituency | 2011 Winner | 2016 Prediction |
| Ayr | Conservative (38.9%) | SNP (41.9%) |
| Carrick, Cumnock & Doon Valley | SNP (46.2%) | SNP (54.1%) |
| Clydesdale | SNP (49.9%) | SNP (57.6%) |
| Dumfriesshire | Labour (39.6%) | Labour (34.3%) |
| East Lothian | Labour (39.0%) | SNP (46.5%) |
| Ettrick, Roxburgh & Berwickshire | Conservative (44.9%) | Conservative (45.1%) |
| Galloway & West Dumfries | Conservative (36.9%) | SNP (40.4%) |
| Kilmarnock & Irvine Valley | SNP (53.2%) | SNP (61.2%) |
| Midlothian South, Tweeddale & Lauderdale | SNP (43.5%) | SNP (53.6%) |
South Scotland List Vote share
| Party | 2011 List vote (%) | Predicted List vote (%) |
| SNP | 40.98% | 39.03% |
| Labour | 25.32% | 21.24% |
| Conservative | 19.49% | 19.61% |
| Green | 3.06% | 5.82% |
| Liberal Democrat | 5.41% | 5.38% |
| UKIP | 1.16% | 3.83% |
| Pensioners | 1.58% | 1.50% |
| Socialist Labour | 1.04% | 0.99% |
| Scottish Socialist | 0.25% | 0.97% |
| BNP | 0.72% | 0.69% |
| Christian Party | 0.69% | 0.65% |
| Solidarity | 0.29% | 0.28% |
| Independant | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| Others | 0.00% | 0.00% |
Glasgow
| SNP | Labour | Conservative | Liberal Democrat | Green | |
| Constituency Seats | 9 (+4) | 0 (-4) | 0 (=) | 0 (=) | 0 (=) |
| List Seats | 0 (-2) | 5 (+2) | 1 (=) | 0 (=) | 1 (=) |
| Total Seats | 9 (+2) | 5 (-2) | 1 (=) | 0 (=) | 1 (=) |
Glasgow Constituency results
| Constituency | 2011 Winner | 2016 Prediction |
| Glasgow Anniesland | SNP (43.2%) | SNP (51.6%) |
| Glasgow Cathcart | SNP (45.5%) | SNP (53.7%) |
| Glasgow Kelvin | SNP (43.3%) | SNP (52.0%) |
| Glasgow Maryhill & Springburn | Labour (48.1%) | SNP (50.5%) |
| Glasgow Pollok | Labour (47.5%) | SNP (53.4%) |
| Glasgow Provan | Labour (52.3%) | SNP (50.2%) |
| Glasgow Shettleston | SNP (47.8%) | SNP (56.3%) |
| Glasgow Southside | SNP (54.4%) | SNP (62.6%) |
| Rutherglen | Labour (46.1%) | SNP (47.8%) |
Glasgow List Vote share
| Party | 2011 List vote (%) | Predicted List vote (%) |
| SNP | 39.82% | 37.74% |
| Labour | 34.99% | 29.22% |
| Green | 5.97% | 11.28% |
| Conservative | 6.11% | 6.12% |
| Others | 4.45% | 4.20% |
| Liberal Democrat | 2.55% | 2.52% |
| Scottish Socialist | 0.65% | 2.51% |
| UKIP | 0.54% | 1.76% |
| Pensioners | 1.80% | 1.70% |
| BNP | 1.16% | 1.10% |
| Socialist Labour | 1.09% | 1.03% |
| Christian Party | 0.72% | 0.68% |
| Independant | 0.16% | 0.15% |
| Solidarity | 0.00% | 0.00% |
Mid Scot and Fife
| SNP | Labour | Conservative | Liberal Democrat | Green | |
| Constituency Seats | 9 (+1) | 0 (-1) | 0 (=) | 0 (=) | 0 (=) |
| List Seats | 0 (-1) | 3 (=) | 2 (=) | 1 (=) | 1 (+1) |
| Total Seats | 9 (=) | 3 (-1) | 2 (=) | 1 (=) | 1 (+1) |
Mid Scot and Fife Constituency results
| Constituency | 2011 Winner | 2016 Prediction |
| Clackmannanshire & Dunblane | SNP (48.3%) | SNP (56.5%) |
| Cowdenbeath | Labour (46.5%) | SNP (50.1%) |
| Dunfermline | SNP (37.6%) | SNP (47.1%) |
| Kirkcaldy | SNP (45.2%) | SNP (53.8%) |
| Mid Fife & Glenrothes | SNP (52.3%) | SNP (60.3%) |
| North East Fife | SNP (37.2%) | SNP (46.0%) |
| Perthshire North | SNP (60.8%) | SNP (66.9%) |
| Perthshire South & Kinross-shire | SNP (51.5%) | SNP (58.5%) |
| Stirling | SNP (48.9%) | SNP (56.7%) |
Mid Scot and Fife List Vote share
| Party | 2011 List vote (%) | Predicted List vote (%) |
| SNP | 45.20% | 42.66% |
| Labour | 25.03% | 20.81% |
| Conservative | 14.12% | 14.08% |
| Green | 4.23% | 7.96% |
| Liberal Democrat | 5.85% | 5.76% |
| UKIP | 1.10% | 3.59% |
| Pensioners | 1.59% | 1.50% |
| Scottish Socialist | 0.32% | 1.24% |
| Socialist Labour | 0.69% | 0.64% |
| BNP | 0.67% | 0.63% |
| Independant | 0.57% | 0.53% |
| Christian Party | 0.30% | 0.29% |
| Others | 0.25% | 0.23% |
| Solidarity | 0.08% | 0.07% |
