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| Voting Intention of the Scottish Electorate for UK 2015 General Election |
The chart is made from 249 polls with a cumulative sample count of 75912.
Individual points are poll results. Poll results are centred on the midway point of a poll, so if poll was taken from the 11th to the 13th it will be placed at the 12th. Point size is a rough indicator of the sample count of the poll. The lines are an exponentially smoothed sample count weighted moving average. The Scottish part extracted from a UK wide poll with only 150 usable samples will have a lesser effect on the moving average than a poll of Scotland with 1000 samples.
Scotland seat change summary:
| Party | Seats Lost | Seats Held | Seats Won | Total Seats | Change |
| Conservative | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 |
| Labour | 34 | 7 | 0 | 7 | -34 |
| Liberal Democrat | 8 | 3 | 0 | 3 | -8 |
| SNP | 0 | 6 | 43 | 49 | +43 |
Scotland vote share multiplying factors:
| Party | 2010 % | Predicted % | Multiplier | Party incumbency bonus % | Candidate incumbency bonus % |
| Conservative | 16.74% | 16.05% | 0.96x | 0.50% | 0.50% |
| Green | 0.68% | 2.27% | 3.33x | 2.50% | 2.50% |
| Labour | 42.00% | 25.70% | 0.61x | 1.00% | 1.00% |
| Liberal Democrat | 18.88% | 6.82% | 0.36x | 5.00% | 5.00% |
| SNP | 19.93% | 45.98% | 2.31x | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| UKIP | 0.70% | 2.78% | 3.98x | 2.50% | 2.50% |
Tactical voting factors:
| Party Vote Source | Tactical Target Party | Tactical voting likelihood % |
| Labour | Liberal Democrat | 36.84% |
| Labour | Conservative | 19.09% |
| UKIP | Labour | 25.00% |
| UKIP | Liberal Democrat | 50.00% |
| UKIP | Conservative | 75.00% |
| Liberal Democrat | Labour | 28.02% |
| Liberal Democrat | Conservative | 36.94% |
| Conservative | Labour | 19.90% |
| Conservative | Liberal Democrat | 47.61% |
Predicted UK GE 2015 Constituency results in Scotland:
| Constituency | Conservative | Labour | Liberal Democrat | SNP | 2010 Result | My 2015 Prediction | Bookie 2015 Prediction |
| Aberdeen North | 9.53% | 31.77% | 4.84% | 51.45% | Labour | SNP | SNP |
| Aberdeen South | 18.71% | 34.85% | 8.68% | 32.17% | Labour | Labour | SNP |
| Aberdeenshire West & Kincardine | 20.82% | 7.89% | 28.40% | 39.20% | Liberal Democrat | SNP | SNP |
| Airdrie & Shotts | 6.90% | 39.15% | 1.55% | 50.93% | Labour | SNP | SNP |
| Angus | 26.60% | 6.03% | 1.74% | 64.55% | SNP | SNP | SNP |
| Argyll & Bute | 12.14% | 8.84% | 28.24% | 43.96% | Liberal Democrat | SNP | SNP |
| Ayr, Carrick & Cumnock | 20.82% | 33.98% | 2.27% | 42.88% | Labour | SNP | SNP |
| Ayrshire Central | 15.87% | 35.37% | 3.15% | 44.58% | Labour | SNP | SNP |
| Ayrshire North & Arran | 11.01% | 30.79% | 2.39% | 54.87% | Labour | SNP | SNP |
| Banff & Buchan | 23.32% | 4.95% | 1.85% | 67.97% | SNP | SNP | SNP |
| Berwickshire, Roxburgh & Selkirk | 25.28% | 6.89% | 37.09% | 27.32% | Liberal Democrat | Liberal Democrat | Conservative |
| Caithness, Sutherland & Easter Ross | 7.22% | 10.52% | 30.91% | 48.90% | Liberal Democrat | SNP | SNP |
| Coatbridge, Chryston & Bellshill | 6.51% | 46.33% | 1.73% | 45.02% | Labour | Labour | SNP |
| Cumbernauld, Kilsyth & Kirkintilloch East | 6.21% | 36.28% | 2.25% | 53.71% | Labour | SNP | SNP |
| Dumfries & Galloway | 32.61% | 24.69% | 4.45% | 34.72% | Labour | SNP | SNP |
| Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale & Tweeddale | 34.10% | 17.23% | 4.99% | 37.25% | Conservative | SNP | SNP |
| Dunbartonshire East | 10.92% | 16.32% | 34.92% | 35.38% | Liberal Democrat | SNP | SNP |
| Dunbartonshire West | 5.93% | 39.92% | 1.54% | 46.56% | Labour | SNP | SNP |
| Dundee East | 8.60% | 18.71% | 2.02% | 64.22% | SNP | SNP | SNP |
| Dundee West | 6.34% | 27.83% | 2.89% | 60.64% | Labour | SNP | SNP |
| Dunfermline & Fife West | 6.64% | 44.80% | 11.68% | 31.38% | Labour | Labour | SNP |
| East Kilbride, Strathaven & Lesmahagow | 9.15% | 32.72% | 2.37% | 48.81% | Labour | SNP | SNP |
| East Lothian | 15.02% | 34.23% | 4.36% | 36.82% | Labour | SNP | SNP |
| Edinburgh East | 7.64% | 28.35% | 4.60% | 42.82% | Labour | SNP | SNP |
| Edinburgh North & Leith | 15.35% | 31.59% | 7.46% | 34.35% | Labour | SNP | SNP |
| Edinburgh South | 19.94% | 33.44% | 9.17% | 30.04% | Labour | Labour | SNP |
| Edinburgh South West | 19.78% | 31.64% | 4.58% | 35.53% | Labour | SNP | SNP |
| Edinburgh West | 13.80% | 12.71% | 36.90% | 36.00% | Liberal Democrat | Liberal Democrat | SNP |
| Falkirk | 7.00% | 27.58% | 2.17% | 56.73% | Labour | SNP | SNP |
| Fife North East | 13.77% | 8.00% | 34.01% | 38.82% | Liberal Democrat | SNP | SNP |
| Glasgow Central | 5.10% | 34.88% | 3.55% | 41.83% | Labour | SNP | SNP |
| Glasgow East | 3.58% | 36.94% | 1.10% | 51.53% | Labour | SNP | SNP |
| Glasgow North | 5.58% | 34.87% | 6.65% | 38.08% | Labour | SNP | SNP |
| Glasgow North East | 4.39% | 49.06% | 1.66% | 38.68% | Labour | Labour | Labour |
| Glasgow North West | 7.48% | 38.40% | 3.64% | 40.33% | Labour | SNP | SNP |
| Glasgow South | 8.77% | 33.80% | 2.49% | 46.58% | Labour | SNP | SNP |
| Glasgow South West | 5.26% | 37.87% | 2.09% | 47.99% | Labour | SNP | SNP |
| Glenrothes | 5.37% | 40.43% | 1.93% | 48.58% | Labour | SNP | SNP |
| Gordon | 10.24% | 10.97% | 26.48% | 47.28% | Liberal Democrat | SNP | SNP |
| Inverclyde | 6.13% | 29.57% | 0.47% | 61.37% | Labour | SNP | SNP |
| Inverness, Nairn, Badenoch & Strathspey | 8.30% | 10.71% | 25.25% | 46.32% | Liberal Democrat | SNP | SNP |
| Kilmarnock & Loudoun | 9.92% | 33.06% | 1.74% | 54.62% | Labour | SNP | SNP |
| Kirkcaldy & Cowdenbeath | 7.37% | 43.46% | 2.81% | 40.42% | Labour | Labour | SNP |
| Lanark & Hamilton East | 10.91% | 34.58% | 2.78% | 45.92% | Labour | SNP | SNP |
| Linlithgow & Falkirk East | 8.61% | 32.54% | 3.13% | 55.05% | Labour | SNP | SNP |
| Livingston | 7.40% | 30.75% | 2.58% | 53.57% | Labour | SNP | SNP |
| Midlothian | 8.69% | 32.38% | 4.24% | 45.40% | Labour | SNP | SNP |
| Moray | 25.60% | 5.89% | 2.30% | 63.70% | SNP | SNP | SNP |
| Motherwell & Wishaw | 6.35% | 41.48% | 1.86% | 47.56% | Labour | SNP | SNP |
| Na h-Eileanan an Iar (Western Isles) | 2.33% | 14.99% | 1.34% | 72.80% | SNP | SNP | SNP |
| Ochil & South Perthshire | 12.95% | 24.76% | 2.44% | 52.48% | Labour | SNP | SNP |
| Orkney & Shetland | 5.67% | 4.43% | 47.76% | 26.18% | Liberal Democrat | Liberal Democrat | Liberal Democrat |
| Paisley & Renfrewshire North | 11.40% | 38.22% | 2.78% | 44.74% | Labour | SNP | SNP |
| Paisley & Renfrewshire South | 6.48% | 39.91% | 1.64% | 47.83% | Labour | SNP | SNP |
| Perth & North Perthshire | 23.93% | 5.92% | 2.05% | 66.61% | SNP | SNP | SNP |
| Renfrewshire East | 24.70% | 33.90% | 2.83% | 36.37% | Labour | SNP | SNP |
| Ross, Skye & Lochaber | 7.07% | 6.74% | 33.89% | 42.86% | Liberal Democrat | SNP | SNP |
| Rutherglen & Hamilton West | 7.77% | 44.46% | 3.27% | 38.92% | Labour | Labour | Labour |
| Stirling | 17.79% | 31.52% | 3.64% | 38.42% | Labour | SNP | SNP |
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