Poll of polls for Voting Intention of the Scottish Electorate in UK 2015 General Election:
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| Voting Intention of the Scottish Electorate for UK 2015 General Election |
The chart is made from 234 polls with a cumulative sample count of 73138.
Individual points are poll results. Poll results are centred on the midway point of a poll, so if poll was taken from the 11th to the 13th it will be placed at the 12th. Point size is a rough indicator of the sample count of the poll. The lines are an exponentially smoothed sample count weighted moving average. The Scottish part extracted from a UK wide poll with only 150 usable samples will have a lesser effect on the moving average than a poll of Scotland with 1000 samples.
Scotland seat change summary:
| Party |
Seats Lost |
Seats Held |
Seats Won |
Total Seats |
Change |
| Conservative |
0 |
1 |
0 |
1 |
0 |
| Labour |
33 |
8 |
0 |
8 |
-33 |
| Liberal Democrat |
8 |
3 |
0 |
3 |
-8 |
| SNP |
0 |
6 |
41 |
47 |
+41 |
Scotland vote share multiplying factors:
| Party |
2010 % |
Predicted % |
Multiplier |
Party incumbency bonus % |
Candidate incumbency bonus % |
| Conservative |
16.74% |
16.39% |
0.98x |
0.50% |
0.50% |
| Green |
0.68% |
2.42% |
3.55x |
2.50% |
2.50% |
| Labour |
42.00% |
25.13% |
0.60x |
1.00% |
1.00% |
| Liberal Democrat |
18.88% |
6.61% |
0.35x |
5.00% |
5.00% |
| SNP |
19.93% |
45.72% |
2.29x |
0.00% |
0.00% |
| UKIP |
0.70% |
2.76% |
3.95x |
2.50% |
2.50% |
Tactical voting factors:
| Party Vote Source |
Tactical Target Party |
Tactical voting likelihood % |
| Labour |
Liberal Democrat |
36.84% |
| Labour |
Conservative |
19.09% |
| UKIP |
Labour |
25.00% |
| UKIP |
Liberal Democrat |
50.00% |
| UKIP |
Conservative |
75.00% |
| Liberal Democrat |
Labour |
28.02% |
| Liberal Democrat |
Conservative |
36.94% |
| Conservative |
Labour |
19.90% |
| Conservative |
Liberal Democrat |
47.61% |
Predicted UK GE 2015 Constituency results in Scotland:
| Constituency |
Conservative |
Labour |
Liberal Democrat |
SNP |
2010 Result |
My 2015 Prediction |
Bookies 2015 Prediction |
| Aberdeen North |
9.81% |
31.42% |
4.73% |
51.60% |
Labour |
SNP |
SNP |
| Aberdeen South |
19.18% |
34.39% |
8.45% |
32.12% |
Labour |
Labour |
SNP |
| Aberdeenshire West & Kincardine |
21.01% |
7.83% |
28.32% |
39.15% |
Liberal Democrat |
SNP |
SNP |
| Airdrie & Shotts |
7.00% |
38.94% |
1.53% |
51.04% |
Labour |
SNP |
SNP |
| Angus |
27.01% |
5.91% |
1.69% |
64.31% |
SNP |
SNP |
SNP |
| Argyll & Bute |
12.40% |
8.64% |
28.00% |
43.73% |
Liberal Democrat |
SNP |
SNP |
| Ayr, Carrick & Cumnock |
21.09% |
33.77% |
2.23% |
42.86% |
Labour |
SNP |
SNP |
| Ayrshire Central |
16.30% |
34.97% |
3.07% |
44.61% |
Labour |
SNP |
SNP |
| Ayrshire North & Arran |
11.32% |
30.43% |
2.34% |
54.96% |
Labour |
SNP |
SNP |
| Banff & Buchan |
23.74% |
4.85% |
1.79% |
67.69% |
SNP |
SNP |
SNP |
| Berwickshire, Roxburgh & Selkirk |
25.52% |
6.84% |
36.96% |
27.27% |
Liberal Democrat |
Liberal Democrat |
Conservative |
| Caithness, Sutherland & Easter Ross |
7.45% |
10.38% |
30.64% |
49.07% |
Liberal Democrat |
SNP |
SNP |
| Coatbridge, Chryston & Bellshill |
6.63% |
46.10% |
1.71% |
45.15% |
Labour |
Labour |
SNP |
| Cumbernauld, Kilsyth & Kirkintilloch East |
6.31% |
36.08% |
2.22% |
53.82% |
Labour |
SNP |
SNP |
| Dumfries & Galloway |
32.76% |
24.57% |
4.44% |
34.70% |
Labour |
SNP |
SNP |
| Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale & Tweeddale |
38.18% |
18.29% |
4.93% |
33.21% |
Conservative |
Conservative |
Conservative |
| Dunbartonshire East |
11.07% |
16.22% |
34.79% |
35.44% |
Liberal Democrat |
SNP |
SNP |
| Dunbartonshire West |
6.02% |
39.72% |
1.52% |
46.67% |
Labour |
SNP |
SNP |
| Dundee East |
8.81% |
18.46% |
1.97% |
64.09% |
SNP |
SNP |
SNP |
| Dundee West |
6.44% |
27.65% |
2.86% |
60.73% |
Labour |
SNP |
SNP |
| Dunfermline & Fife West |
6.87% |
44.47% |
11.47% |
31.64% |
Labour |
Labour |
SNP |
| East Kilbride, Strathaven & Lesmahagow |
9.38% |
32.21% |
2.30% |
48.73% |
Labour |
SNP |
SNP |
| East Lothian |
15.38% |
33.72% |
4.24% |
36.71% |
Labour |
SNP |
SNP |
| Edinburgh East |
7.78% |
27.72% |
4.45% |
42.48% |
Labour |
SNP |
SNP |
| Edinburgh North & Leith |
15.52% |
31.29% |
7.31% |
34.31% |
Labour |
SNP |
SNP |
| Edinburgh South |
20.17% |
33.14% |
9.00% |
29.99% |
Labour |
Labour |
SNP |
| Edinburgh South West |
20.00% |
31.35% |
4.51% |
35.45% |
Labour |
SNP |
SNP |
| Edinburgh West |
14.18% |
12.50% |
36.71% |
36.02% |
Liberal Democrat |
Liberal Democrat |
SNP |
| Falkirk |
7.21% |
27.28% |
2.12% |
56.86% |
Labour |
SNP |
SNP |
| Fife North East |
13.93% |
7.95% |
33.90% |
38.83% |
Liberal Democrat |
SNP |
SNP |
| Glasgow Central |
5.16% |
34.59% |
3.49% |
41.80% |
Labour |
SNP |
SNP |
| Glasgow East |
3.63% |
36.74% |
1.08% |
51.66% |
Labour |
SNP |
SNP |
| Glasgow North |
5.66% |
34.53% |
6.52% |
38.04% |
Labour |
SNP |
SNP |
| Glasgow North East |
4.48% |
48.81% |
1.64% |
38.79% |
Labour |
Labour |
Labour |
| Glasgow North West |
7.58% |
38.07% |
3.58% |
40.30% |
Labour |
SNP |
SNP |
| Glasgow South |
8.87% |
33.52% |
2.45% |
46.53% |
Labour |
SNP |
SNP |
| Glasgow South West |
5.30% |
37.74% |
2.08% |
48.02% |
Labour |
SNP |
SNP |
| Glenrothes |
5.54% |
40.03% |
1.90% |
48.83% |
Labour |
SNP |
SNP |
| Gordon |
10.36% |
10.89% |
26.34% |
47.20% |
Liberal Democrat |
SNP |
SNP |
| Inverclyde |
6.31% |
29.23% |
0.46% |
61.53% |
Labour |
SNP |
SNP |
| Inverness, Nairn, Badenoch & Strathspey |
8.38% |
10.63% |
25.06% |
46.29% |
Liberal Democrat |
SNP |
SNP |
| Kilmarnock & Loudoun |
10.21% |
32.68% |
1.70% |
54.74% |
Labour |
SNP |
SNP |
| Kirkcaldy & Cowdenbeath |
7.49% |
43.24% |
2.79% |
40.51% |
Labour |
Labour |
SNP |
| Lanark & Hamilton East |
11.23% |
34.21% |
2.71% |
46.02% |
Labour |
SNP |
SNP |
| Linlithgow & Falkirk East |
8.87% |
32.18% |
3.06% |
55.22% |
Labour |
SNP |
SNP |
| Livingston |
7.62% |
30.41% |
2.53% |
53.72% |
Labour |
SNP |
SNP |
| Midlothian |
8.93% |
31.93% |
4.13% |
45.38% |
Labour |
SNP |
SNP |
| Moray |
25.94% |
5.77% |
2.24% |
63.54% |
SNP |
SNP |
SNP |
| Motherwell & Wishaw |
6.47% |
41.25% |
1.83% |
47.66% |
Labour |
SNP |
SNP |
| Na h-Eileanan an Iar (Western Isles) |
2.40% |
14.78% |
1.31% |
72.91% |
SNP |
SNP |
SNP |
| Ochil & South Perthshire |
13.27% |
24.44% |
2.37% |
52.34% |
Labour |
SNP |
SNP |
| Orkney & Shetland |
5.86% |
4.38% |
47.42% |
26.31% |
Liberal Democrat |
Liberal Democrat |
Liberal Democrat |
| Paisley & Renfrewshire North |
11.74% |
37.79% |
2.72% |
44.86% |
Labour |
SNP |
SNP |
| Paisley & Renfrewshire South |
6.55% |
39.79% |
1.63% |
47.87% |
Labour |
SNP |
SNP |
| Perth & North Perthshire |
24.36% |
5.80% |
1.99% |
66.36% |
SNP |
SNP |
SNP |
| Renfrewshire East |
25.82% |
35.01% |
2.66% |
34.09% |
Labour |
Labour |
SNP |
| Ross, Skye & Lochaber |
7.11% |
6.71% |
33.75% |
42.84% |
Liberal Democrat |
SNP |
SNP |
| Rutherglen & Hamilton West |
8.03% |
44.04% |
3.20% |
39.12% |
Labour |
Labour |
Labour |
| Stirling |
18.19% |
31.06% |
3.53% |
38.26% |
Labour |
SNP |
SNP |
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