Stats extracted from latest YouGov poll of 1056 Scottish Adults (2015-04-08 to 2015-04-09):
http://cdn.yougov.com/cumulus_uploads/document/9unqqunlzn/Times_Scotland_Results_150409_Formatted_readyforwebsite.pdf
I've taken the inverse to see things from the perspective of what a 2015 Westminster vote intention predicts about the voter, rather than how an aspect of the voter affects the way they are likely to vote. Eg:
The published stats say things like:
50% of male voters intend to vote SNP.
49% of female voters intend to vote SNP.
From this we can infer:
If you intend to vote SNP there is a 50.5% chance that you are male.
Transitions in party choice from 2010 to 2015:
53.4% of Scottish Electorate will vote same way they voted in 2010.
Here's a table of what percentages of the Scottish Electorate intend to vote compared to what they voted in 2010.
Percentage of Scottish Electorate (%) |
2010 Vote |
2015 Voting intention |
25.0% | SNP | SNP |
14.3% | Labour | Labour |
14.1% | Conservative | Conservative |
11.0% | Liberal Democrat | SNP |
11.0% | Labour | SNP |
6.3% | Liberal Democrat | Labour |
3.6% | Conservative | Labour |
3.5% | Liberal Democrat | Liberal Democrat |
2.1% | Liberal Democrat | Conservative |
1.6% | Conservative | SNP |
1.3% | Labour | Conservative |
0.9% | SNP | Labour |
0.6% | SNP | Conservative |
0.3% | Conservative | Liberal Democrat |
0.2% | Labour | Liberal Democrat |
0.0% | SNP | Liberal Democrat |
What your UK 2015 General Election voting intention says about you:
If you intend to vote SNP in 2015 General Election:
51.1% you voted SNP in 2010.
23.1% you voted Liberal Democrat in 2010.
22.5% you voted Labour in 2010.
3.3% you voted Conservative in 2010.
96.4% chance you will turn out to vote.
50.5% chance you're male.
You were most likely born in Scotland at a chance of 40.3%.
Your mean age is 41.3 years.
If you intend to vote Labour in 2015 General Election:
57.1% chance you voted Labour in 2010.
25.0% chance you voted Liberal Democrat in 2010.
14.3% chance you voted Conservative in 2010.
3.6% chance you voted SNP in 2010.
94.5% chance you will turn out to vote.
51.0% chance you're female.
You were most likely born elsewhere in the UK at a chance of 46.2%.
Your mean age is 45.8 years.
If you intend to vote Conservative in 2015 GE:
78.4% chance you voted Conservative in 2010.
11.3% chance you voted Liberal Democrat in 2010.
7.2% chance you voted Labour in 2010.
3.1% chance you voted SNP in 2010.
96.1% chance you will turn out to vote.
51.4% chance you're male.
You were most likely born elsewhere in the UK at a chance of 40.3%.
Your mean age is 45.7 years.
If you intend to vote Liberal Democrat in 2015 GE:
88.0% chance you voted Liberal Democrat 2010.
8% chance you voted Conservative in 2010.
4% chance you voted Labour in 2010.
0% chance you vote SNP in 2010.
94.1% chance you will turn out to vote.
55.6% chance you're female.
You were most likely born outside the UK at a chance of 45.0%.
Your mean age is 42.8 years.
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