Poll of polls for Voting Intention of the Scottish Electorate in UK 2015 General Election:
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| Voting Intention of the Scottish Electorate for UK 2015 General Election |
The chart is made from 220 polls with a cumulative sample count of 68710.
Individual points are poll results. Poll results are centred on the midway point of a poll, so if poll was taken from the 11th to the 13th it will be placed at the 12th. Point size is a rough indicator of the sample count of the poll. The lines are an exponentially smoothed sample count weighted moving average. The Scottish part extracted from a UK wide poll with only 150 usable samples will have a lesser effect on the moving average than a poll of Scotland with 1000 samples.
Scotland seat change summary:
| Party |
Seats Lost |
Seats Held |
Seats Won |
Total Seats |
Change |
| Conservative |
0 |
1 |
2 |
3 |
+2 |
| Labour |
37 |
4 |
0 |
4 |
-37 |
| Liberal Democrat |
11 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
-11 |
| SNP |
0 |
6 |
45 |
51 |
+45 |
| UKIP |
0 |
0 |
1 |
1 |
+1 |
Predicted UK GE 2015 Constituency results in Scotland:
| Constituency |
Conservative |
Labour |
Liberal Democrat |
SNP |
UKIP |
2010 Result |
2015 Prediction |
| Aberdeen North |
12.86% |
27.07% |
7.03% |
50.57% |
0.00% |
Labour |
SNP |
| Aberdeen South |
24.70% |
25.55% |
12.34% |
30.93% |
0.00% |
Labour |
SNP |
| Aberdeenshire West & Kincardine |
29.34% |
9.46% |
17.83% |
38.64% |
3.47% |
Liberal Democrat |
SNP |
| Airdrie & Shotts |
8.10% |
37.62% |
2.03% |
50.72% |
0.00% |
Labour |
SNP |
| Angus |
22.45% |
7.33% |
2.85% |
62.88% |
4.46% |
SNP |
SNP |
| Argyll & Bute |
24.42% |
13.55% |
11.72% |
42.13% |
0.00% |
Liberal Democrat |
SNP |
| Ayr, Carrick & Cumnock |
24.27% |
30.49% |
2.82% |
42.37% |
0.00% |
Labour |
SNP |
| Ayrshire Central |
21.35% |
29.34% |
4.56% |
43.70% |
0.00% |
Labour |
SNP |
| Ayrshire North & Arran |
14.91% |
26.51% |
3.49% |
54.13% |
0.00% |
Labour |
SNP |
| Banff & Buchan |
22.62% |
6.03% |
3.04% |
66.35% |
0.00% |
SNP |
SNP |
| Berwickshire, Roxburgh & Selkirk |
35.78% |
8.19% |
24.19% |
26.87% |
4.52% |
Liberal Democrat |
Conservative |
| Caithness, Sutherland & Easter Ross |
15.01% |
16.66% |
17.41% |
48.40% |
0.00% |
Liberal Democrat |
SNP |
| Coatbridge, Chryston & Bellshill |
7.77% |
44.63% |
2.30% |
44.88% |
0.00% |
Labour |
SNP |
| Cumbernauld, Kilsyth & Kirkintilloch East |
7.34% |
34.73% |
2.82% |
53.50% |
0.00% |
Labour |
SNP |
| Dumfries & Galloway |
34.72% |
22.17% |
4.72% |
34.47% |
3.51% |
Labour |
Conservative |
| Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale & Tweeddale |
35.69% |
19.07% |
5.67% |
32.92% |
3.49% |
Conservative |
Conservative |
| Dunbartonshire East |
16.09% |
21.03% |
23.75% |
35.09% |
3.48% |
Liberal Democrat |
SNP |
| Dunbartonshire West |
6.96% |
37.63% |
2.02% |
46.30% |
5.37% |
Labour |
SNP |
| Dundee East |
11.51% |
14.79% |
2.91% |
62.60% |
3.25% |
SNP |
SNP |
| Dundee West |
7.51% |
26.33% |
3.51% |
60.28% |
0.00% |
Labour |
SNP |
| Dunfermline & Fife West |
8.93% |
35.89% |
16.92% |
30.76% |
6.92% |
Labour |
Labour |
| East Kilbride, Strathaven & Lesmahagow |
12.22% |
28.44% |
3.40% |
47.47% |
0.00% |
Labour |
SNP |
| East Lothian |
19.83% |
26.39% |
6.20% |
35.41% |
4.55% |
Labour |
SNP |
| Edinburgh East |
9.93% |
23.14% |
6.44% |
40.56% |
0.00% |
Labour |
SNP |
| Edinburgh North & Leith |
17.51% |
26.91% |
9.66% |
33.68% |
0.00% |
Labour |
SNP |
| Edinburgh South |
23.07% |
27.79% |
11.39% |
29.44% |
0.00% |
Labour |
SNP |
| Edinburgh South West |
22.91% |
27.43% |
5.63% |
34.80% |
0.00% |
Labour |
SNP |
| Edinburgh West |
28.32% |
19.87% |
16.01% |
35.20% |
0.00% |
Liberal Democrat |
SNP |
| Falkirk |
9.45% |
22.59% |
3.16% |
55.79% |
8.61% |
Labour |
SNP |
| Fife North East |
19.81% |
9.95% |
23.66% |
38.23% |
7.68% |
Liberal Democrat |
SNP |
| Glasgow Central |
5.95% |
32.35% |
4.43% |
41.15% |
3.09% |
Labour |
SNP |
| Glasgow East |
4.15% |
35.74% |
1.38% |
51.36% |
3.25% |
Labour |
SNP |
| Glasgow North |
6.54% |
31.40% |
8.55% |
37.35% |
0.00% |
Labour |
SNP |
| Glasgow North East |
5.25% |
47.61% |
2.20% |
38.52% |
0.00% |
Labour |
Labour |
| Glasgow North West |
8.77% |
35.80% |
4.55% |
39.69% |
0.00% |
Labour |
SNP |
| Glasgow South |
10.16% |
31.54% |
3.12% |
45.86% |
0.00% |
Labour |
SNP |
| Glasgow South West |
5.73% |
37.06% |
2.38% |
47.83% |
0.00% |
Labour |
SNP |
| Glenrothes |
7.28% |
36.93% |
2.83% |
48.01% |
4.29% |
Labour |
SNP |
| Gordon |
15.03% |
13.07% |
19.85% |
46.40% |
0.00% |
Liberal Democrat |
SNP |
| Inverclyde |
8.35% |
26.59% |
0.68% |
60.89% |
3.49% |
Labour |
SNP |
| Inverness, Nairn, Badenoch & Strathspey |
11.77% |
13.07% |
18.00% |
45.69% |
4.50% |
Liberal Democrat |
SNP |
| Kilmarnock & Loudoun |
13.46% |
29.30% |
2.55% |
54.00% |
0.00% |
Labour |
SNP |
| Kirkcaldy & Cowdenbeath |
8.71% |
40.74% |
3.41% |
40.10% |
5.25% |
Labour |
Labour |
| Lanark & Hamilton East |
14.71% |
28.76% |
4.04% |
45.12% |
5.25% |
Labour |
SNP |
| Linlithgow & Falkirk East |
11.69% |
28.60% |
4.57% |
54.45% |
0.00% |
Labour |
SNP |
| Livingston |
10.03% |
26.50% |
3.77% |
52.90% |
3.48% |
Labour |
SNP |
| Midlothian |
11.57% |
26.86% |
6.07% |
44.00% |
3.65% |
Labour |
SNP |
| Moray |
18.62% |
7.17% |
3.79% |
62.08% |
7.65% |
SNP |
SNP |
| Motherwell & Wishaw |
7.72% |
39.61% |
2.49% |
47.33% |
0.00% |
Labour |
SNP |
| Na h-Eileanan an Iar (Western Isles) |
3.17% |
13.92% |
1.96% |
72.14% |
0.00% |
SNP |
SNP |
| Ochil & South Perthshire |
17.28% |
18.75% |
3.50% |
50.98% |
4.66% |
Labour |
SNP |
| Orkney & Shetland |
11.64% |
6.92% |
25.04% |
25.59% |
28.31% |
Liberal Democrat |
UKIP |
| Paisley & Renfrewshire North |
15.43% |
33.49% |
4.05% |
44.09% |
0.00% |
Labour |
SNP |
| Paisley & Renfrewshire South |
7.19% |
38.94% |
1.94% |
47.67% |
0.00% |
Labour |
SNP |
| Perth & North Perthshire |
22.90% |
7.22% |
3.37% |
65.00% |
0.00% |
SNP |
SNP |
| Renfrewshire East |
27.82% |
32.65% |
2.97% |
33.91% |
1.60% |
Labour |
SNP |
| Ross, Skye & Lochaber |
8.73% |
7.58% |
30.15% |
42.54% |
3.54% |
Liberal Democrat |
SNP |
| Rutherglen & Hamilton West |
10.53% |
38.87% |
4.77% |
38.39% |
6.33% |
Labour |
Labour |
| Stirling |
23.42% |
23.87% |
5.16% |
36.84% |
3.32% |
Labour |
SNP |
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