Poll of polls for Voting Intention of the Scottish Electorate in UK 2015 General Election:
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| Voting Intention of the Scottish Electorate for UK 2015 General Election | | | | |
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Individual points are poll results. Poll results are centred on the midway point of a poll, so if poll was taken from the 11th to the 13th it will be placed at the 12th. Point size is a rough indicator of the sample count of the poll. The lines are an exponentially smoothed sample count weighted moving average. The Scottish part extracted from a UK wide poll with only 150 usable samples will have a lesser effect on the moving average than a poll of Scotland with 1000 samples.
Scotland seat change summary:
| Party |
Seats Lost |
Seats Held |
Seats Won |
Total Seats |
Change |
| Conservative |
0 |
1 |
4 |
5 |
+4 |
| Labour |
36 |
5 |
0 |
5 |
-36 |
| Liberal Democrat |
11 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
-11 |
| SNP |
0 |
6 |
42 |
48 |
+42 |
| UKIP |
0 |
0 |
1 |
1 |
+1 |
Scotland vote share multiplying factors:
| Party |
2010 % |
Predicted % |
Multiplier |
| Conservative |
16.74% |
16.93% |
1.01x |
| Green |
0.68% |
2.56% |
3.75x |
| Labour |
42.00% |
24.06% |
0.57x |
| Liberal Democrat |
18.88% |
7.33% |
0.39x |
| SNP |
19.93% |
44.30% |
2.22x |
| UKIP |
0.70% |
3.28% |
4.70x |
Predicted UK GE 2015 Constituency results in Scotland:
| Constituency |
Conservative |
Labour |
Liberal Democrat |
SNP |
UKIP |
2010 Result |
2015 Prediction |
| Aberdeen North |
12.90% |
26.23% |
7.43% |
50.96% |
0.00% |
Labour |
SNP |
| Aberdeen South |
24.81% |
24.80% |
13.06% |
31.22% |
0.00% |
Labour |
SNP |
| Aberdeenshire West & Kincardine |
32.75% |
8.35% |
15.96% |
37.30% |
4.41% |
Liberal Democrat |
SNP |
| Airdrie & Shotts |
8.91% |
33.61% |
3.17% |
52.80% |
0.00% |
Labour |
SNP |
| Angus |
22.26% |
7.02% |
2.98% |
62.63% |
5.08% |
SNP |
SNP |
| Argyll & Bute |
24.48% |
13.12% |
12.37% |
42.44% |
0.00% |
Liberal Democrat |
SNP |
| Ayr, Carrick & Cumnock |
26.74% |
27.96% |
3.73% |
41.51% |
0.00% |
Labour |
SNP |
| Ayrshire Central |
21.47% |
28.50% |
4.83% |
44.15% |
0.00% |
Labour |
SNP |
| Ayrshire North & Arran |
14.98% |
25.72% |
3.69% |
54.63% |
0.00% |
Labour |
SNP |
| Banff & Buchan |
22.56% |
5.81% |
3.19% |
66.48% |
0.00% |
SNP |
SNP |
| Berwickshire, Roxburgh & Selkirk |
40.62% |
6.95% |
20.94% |
24.26% |
6.78% |
Liberal Democrat |
Conservative |
| Caithness, Sutherland & Easter Ross |
14.93% |
15.99% |
18.23% |
48.35% |
0.00% |
Liberal Democrat |
SNP |
| Coatbridge, Chryston & Bellshill |
9.37% |
43.63% |
3.75% |
42.82% |
0.00% |
Labour |
Labour |
| Cumbernauld, Kilsyth & Kirkintilloch East |
8.43% |
33.00% |
3.73% |
53.26% |
0.00% |
Labour |
SNP |
| Dumfries & Galloway |
33.41% |
27.48% |
3.58% |
28.58% |
6.54% |
Labour |
Conservative |
| Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale & Tweeddale |
39.33% |
16.93% |
7.85% |
24.49% |
6.66% |
Conservative |
Conservative |
| Dunbartonshire East |
19.72% |
24.61% |
18.91% |
29.49% |
6.72% |
Liberal Democrat |
SNP |
| Dunbartonshire West |
7.76% |
35.12% |
3.15% |
44.69% |
7.59% |
Labour |
SNP |
| Dundee East |
11.50% |
14.27% |
3.06% |
62.84% |
3.73% |
SNP |
SNP |
| Dundee West |
8.70% |
25.64% |
4.09% |
59.25% |
0.00% |
Labour |
SNP |
| Dunfermline & Fife West |
8.86% |
34.38% |
17.67% |
30.65% |
7.88% |
Labour |
Labour |
| East Kilbride, Strathaven & Lesmahagow |
12.37% |
27.81% |
3.63% |
48.27% |
0.00% |
Labour |
SNP |
| East Lothian |
19.90% |
25.58% |
6.55% |
35.69% |
5.24% |
Labour |
SNP |
| Edinburgh East |
10.12% |
22.78% |
6.91% |
41.51% |
0.00% |
Labour |
SNP |
| Edinburgh North & Leith |
18.45% |
26.20% |
16.03% |
26.17% |
0.00% |
Labour |
Labour |
| Edinburgh South |
27.27% |
24.87% |
16.51% |
21.27% |
0.00% |
Labour |
Conservative |
| Edinburgh South West |
26.77% |
26.79% |
7.64% |
29.52% |
0.00% |
Labour |
SNP |
| Edinburgh West |
28.23% |
19.13% |
16.80% |
35.24% |
0.00% |
Liberal Democrat |
SNP |
| Falkirk |
9.37% |
21.62% |
3.30% |
55.53% |
9.79% |
Labour |
SNP |
| Fife North East |
23.57% |
10.53% |
18.45% |
33.81% |
12.97% |
Liberal Democrat |
SNP |
| Glasgow Central |
7.11% |
29.72% |
6.34% |
38.83% |
3.77% |
Labour |
SNP |
| Glasgow East |
4.39% |
33.85% |
1.87% |
52.80% |
2.93% |
Labour |
SNP |
| Glasgow North |
8.28% |
29.60% |
14.13% |
30.75% |
0.00% |
Labour |
SNP |
| Glasgow North East |
6.39% |
46.42% |
3.54% |
37.26% |
0.00% |
Labour |
Labour |
| Glasgow North West |
10.74% |
33.09% |
6.55% |
36.25% |
0.00% |
Labour |
SNP |
| Glasgow South |
11.28% |
28.85% |
4.47% |
43.61% |
0.00% |
Labour |
SNP |
| Glasgow South West |
7.48% |
40.38% |
3.95% |
40.95% |
0.00% |
Labour |
SNP |
| Glenrothes |
7.30% |
35.76% |
2.98% |
48.36% |
4.93% |
Labour |
SNP |
| Gordon |
18.60% |
11.35% |
13.78% |
48.61% |
0.00% |
Liberal Democrat |
SNP |
| Inverclyde |
8.35% |
25.70% |
0.72% |
61.21% |
4.01% |
Labour |
SNP |
| Inverness, Nairn, Badenoch & Strathspey |
13.69% |
12.86% |
16.05% |
42.20% |
5.81% |
Liberal Democrat |
SNP |
| Kilmarnock & Loudoun |
13.55% |
28.48% |
2.70% |
54.58% |
0.00% |
Labour |
SNP |
| Kirkcaldy & Cowdenbeath |
10.31% |
40.54% |
3.97% |
34.85% |
8.54% |
Labour |
Labour |
| Lanark & Hamilton East |
14.68% |
27.72% |
4.24% |
45.23% |
6.02% |
Labour |
SNP |
| Linlithgow & Falkirk East |
11.75% |
27.76% |
4.84% |
54.96% |
0.00% |
Labour |
SNP |
| Livingston |
10.03% |
25.57% |
3.97% |
53.11% |
4.00% |
Labour |
SNP |
| Midlothian |
11.61% |
26.04% |
6.42% |
44.36% |
4.21% |
Labour |
SNP |
| Moray |
18.37% |
6.83% |
3.93% |
61.52% |
8.66% |
SNP |
SNP |
| Motherwell & Wishaw |
10.37% |
38.38% |
4.18% |
44.24% |
0.00% |
Labour |
SNP |
| Na h-Eileanan an Iar (Western Isles) |
3.17% |
13.44% |
2.06% |
72.50% |
0.00% |
SNP |
SNP |
| Ochil & South Perthshire |
17.26% |
18.09% |
3.69% |
51.15% |
5.34% |
Labour |
SNP |
| Orkney & Shetland |
11.04% |
6.34% |
25.02% |
24.39% |
30.84% |
Liberal Democrat |
UKIP |
| Paisley & Renfrewshire North |
15.54% |
32.58% |
4.30% |
44.62% |
0.00% |
Labour |
SNP |
| Paisley & Renfrewshire South |
10.93% |
37.10% |
4.02% |
43.65% |
0.00% |
Labour |
SNP |
| Perth & North Perthshire |
22.84% |
6.96% |
3.54% |
65.15% |
0.00% |
SNP |
SNP |
| Renfrewshire East |
35.17% |
33.26% |
4.09% |
22.52% |
3.90% |
Labour |
Conservative |
| Ross, Skye & Lochaber |
13.09% |
9.17% |
21.63% |
35.55% |
9.40% |
Liberal Democrat |
SNP |
| Rutherglen & Hamilton West |
10.52% |
37.52% |
5.02% |
38.55% |
7.27% |
Labour |
SNP |
| Stirling |
23.51% |
23.15% |
5.45% |
37.17% |
3.83% |
Labour |
SNP |
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