Voting Intention of the Scottish Electorate for UK 2015 General Election |

Poll results are centred on the midway point of a poll, so if poll was taken from the 11th to the 13th it will be placed at the 12th. Point size is a rough indicator of the sample count of the poll. The lines are an exponentially smoothed sample count weighted moving average. The Scottish part extracted from a UK wide poll with only 150 usable samples will have a lesser effect on the moving average than a poll of Scotland with 1000 samples.
Scotland seat change summary:
Party | Seats Lost | Seats Held | Seats Won | Total Seats | Change |
Conservative | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | +1 |
Labour | 27 | 14 | 0 | 14 | -27 |
Liberal Democrat | 11 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -11 |
SNP | 0 | 6 | 36 | 42 | +36 |
UKIP | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | +1 |
Scotland vote share multiplying factors:
Party | 2010 % | Predicted % | Multiplier |
Conservative | 16.74% | 16.03% | 0.96x |
Green | 0.68% | 2.94% | 4.31x |
Labour | 42.00% | 27.84% | 0.66x |
Liberal Democrat | 18.88% | 4.87% | 0.26x |
SNP | 19.93% | 43.94% | 2.20x |
UKIP | 0.70% | 3.71% | 5.31x |
Predicted UK GE 2015 Constituency results in Scotland:
Constituency | Conservative | Labour | Liberal Democrat | SNP | UKIP | 2010 Result | 2015 Prediction |
Aberdeen North | 12.15% | 30.19% | 4.91% | 50.28% | 0.00% | Labour | SNP |
Aberdeen South | 23.83% | 29.11% | 8.80% | 31.42% | 0.00% | Labour | SNP |
Aberdeenshire West & Kincardine | 32.81% | 10.23% | 11.22% | 39.15% | 5.28% | Liberal Democrat | SNP |
Airdrie & Shotts | 8.17% | 37.65% | 2.03% | 50.70% | 0.00% | Labour | SNP |
Angus | 21.28% | 8.20% | 2.00% | 62.70% | 5.80% | SNP | SNP |
Argyll & Bute | 23.84% | 15.61% | 8.45% | 43.29% | 0.00% | Liberal Democrat | SNP |
Ayr, Carrick & Cumnock | 24.97% | 31.91% | 2.45% | 40.61% | 0.00% | Labour | SNP |
Ayrshire Central | 20.06% | 32.53% | 3.16% | 43.20% | 0.00% | Labour | SNP |
Ayrshire North & Arran | 13.96% | 29.31% | 2.41% | 53.36% | 0.00% | Labour | SNP |
Banff & Buchan | 21.78% | 6.85% | 2.16% | 67.21% | 0.00% | SNP | SNP |
Berwickshire, Roxburgh & Selkirk | 41.53% | 8.69% | 15.03% | 25.98% | 8.28% | Liberal Democrat | Conservative |
Caithness, Sutherland & Easter Ross | 14.84% | 19.44% | 12.72% | 50.37% | 0.00% | Liberal Democrat | SNP |
Coatbridge, Chryston & Bellshill | 8.47% | 48.20% | 2.38% | 40.55% | 0.00% | Labour | Labour |
Cumbernauld, Kilsyth & Kirkintilloch East | 7.74% | 37.06% | 2.40% | 51.26% | 0.00% | Labour | SNP |
Dumfries & Galloway | 31.03% | 31.18% | 2.33% | 27.80% | 7.25% | Labour | Labour |
Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale & Tweeddale | 37.52% | 19.74% | 5.26% | 24.48% | 7.60% | Conservative | Conservative |
Dunbartonshire East | 19.23% | 29.33% | 12.93% | 30.12% | 7.82% | Liberal Democrat | SNP |
Dunbartonshire West | 7.01% | 38.82% | 2.00% | 42.35% | 8.20% | Labour | SNP |
Dundee East | 10.77% | 16.33% | 2.01% | 61.63% | 4.17% | SNP | SNP |
Dundee West | 8.10% | 29.17% | 2.67% | 57.78% | 0.00% | Labour | SNP |
Dunfermline & Fife West | 8.41% | 39.87% | 11.77% | 30.46% | 8.93% | Labour | Labour |
East Kilbride, Strathaven & Lesmahagow | 11.36% | 31.20% | 2.34% | 46.42% | 0.00% | Labour | SNP |
East Lothian | 18.44% | 28.98% | 4.26% | 34.66% | 5.80% | Labour | SNP |
Edinburgh East | 9.30% | 25.59% | 4.46% | 39.98% | 0.00% | Labour | SNP |
Edinburgh North & Leith | 17.63% | 30.60% | 10.75% | 26.20% | 0.00% | Labour | Labour |
Edinburgh South | 26.31% | 29.32% | 11.17% | 21.50% | 0.00% | Labour | Labour |
Edinburgh South West | 25.06% | 30.64% | 5.02% | 28.94% | 0.00% | Labour | Labour |
Edinburgh West | 27.96% | 23.16% | 11.68% | 36.57% | 0.00% | Liberal Democrat | SNP |
Falkirk | 8.64% | 24.37% | 2.13% | 53.67% | 10.80% | Labour | SNP |
Fife North East | 23.34% | 12.74% | 12.82% | 35.07% | 15.33% | Liberal Democrat | SNP |
Glasgow Central | 6.49% | 33.13% | 4.06% | 37.11% | 4.10% | Labour | SNP |
Glasgow East | 3.98% | 37.52% | 1.19% | 50.16% | 3.17% | Labour | SNP |
Glasgow North | 7.74% | 33.81% | 9.27% | 30.12% | 0.00% | Labour | Labour |
Glasgow North East | 5.74% | 50.93% | 2.23% | 35.04% | 0.00% | Labour | Labour |
Glasgow North West | 9.81% | 36.95% | 4.20% | 34.70% | 0.00% | Labour | Labour |
Glasgow South | 10.33% | 32.29% | 2.87% | 41.84% | 0.00% | Labour | SNP |
Glasgow South West | 6.79% | 44.80% | 2.52% | 38.95% | 0.00% | Labour | Labour |
Glenrothes | 6.62% | 39.60% | 1.90% | 45.91% | 5.34% | Labour | SNP |
Gordon | 18.23% | 13.59% | 9.48% | 49.90% | 0.00% | Liberal Democrat | SNP |
Inverclyde | 7.65% | 28.77% | 0.46% | 58.73% | 4.39% | Labour | SNP |
Inverness, Nairn, Badenoch & Strathspey | 13.33% | 15.29% | 10.96% | 43.03% | 6.76% | Liberal Democrat | SNP |
Kilmarnock & Loudoun | 12.52% | 32.18% | 1.75% | 52.87% | 0.00% | Labour | SNP |
Kirkcaldy & Cowdenbeath | 9.26% | 44.53% | 2.50% | 32.82% | 9.17% | Labour | Labour |
Lanark & Hamilton East | 13.55% | 31.27% | 2.75% | 43.73% | 6.63% | Labour | SNP |
Linlithgow & Falkirk East | 10.94% | 31.59% | 3.16% | 53.62% | 0.00% | Labour | SNP |
Livingston | 9.29% | 28.94% | 2.58% | 51.52% | 4.42% | Labour | SNP |
Midlothian | 10.74% | 29.44% | 4.17% | 43.00% | 4.65% | Labour | SNP |
Moray | 17.50% | 7.95% | 2.63% | 61.38% | 9.86% | SNP | SNP |
Motherwell & Wishaw | 9.46% | 42.81% | 2.67% | 42.31% | 0.00% | Labour | Labour |
Na h-Eileanan an Iar (Western Isles) | 2.98% | 15.45% | 1.36% | 71.43% | 0.00% | SNP | SNP |
Ochil & South Perthshire | 16.09% | 20.61% | 2.41% | 49.97% | 5.95% | Labour | SNP |
Orkney & Shetland | 10.90% | 7.66% | 17.34% | 25.24% | 36.39% | Liberal Democrat | UKIP |
Paisley & Renfrewshire North | 14.36% | 36.79% | 2.79% | 43.18% | 0.00% | Labour | SNP |
Paisley & Renfrewshire South | 9.99% | 41.47% | 2.58% | 41.81% | 0.00% | Labour | SNP |
Perth & North Perthshire | 22.04% | 8.20% | 2.40% | 65.83% | 0.00% | SNP | SNP |
Renfrewshire East | 32.55% | 37.62% | 2.66% | 21.84% | 4.31% | Labour | Labour |
Ross, Skye & Lochaber | 12.94% | 11.08% | 15.01% | 36.83% | 11.11% | Liberal Democrat | SNP |
Rutherglen & Hamilton West | 9.56% | 41.63% | 3.19% | 36.67% | 7.88% | Labour | Labour |
Stirling | 21.91% | 26.37% | 3.56% | 36.28% | 4.26% | Labour | SNP |
No comments:
Post a Comment