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| Voting Intention of the Scottish Electorate for UK 2015 General Election |
Voting Intention of the Scottish Electorate for UK 2015 General Election
Individual points are poll results. Poll results are centred on the midway point of a poll, so if poll was taken from the 11th to the 13th it will be placed at the 12th. Point size is a rough indicator of the sample count of the poll.
The lines are an exponentially smoothed sample count weighted moving average. The Scottish part extracted from a UK wide poll with only 150 usable samples will have a lesser effect on the moving average than a poll of Scotland with 1000 samples.
Scotland seat change summary:
| Party | Seats Lost | Seats Held | Seats Won | Total Seats | Change |
| Conservative | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | +2 |
| Labour | 29 | 12 | 0 | 12 | -29 |
| Liberal Democrat | 11 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -11 |
| SNP | 0 | 6 | 37 | 43 | +37 |
| UKIP | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | +1 |
Scotland vote share multiplying factors:
| Party | 2010 % | Predicted % | Multiplier |
| Conservative | 16.74% | 16.32% | 0.97x |
| Green | 0.68% | 3.21% | 4.70x |
| Labour | 42.00% | 26.86% | 0.64x |
| Liberal Democrat | 18.88% | 5.41% | 0.29x |
| SNP | 19.93% | 43.07% | 2.16x |
| UKIP | 0.70% | 4.01% | 5.74x |
Predicted UK GE 2015 Constituency results in Scotland:
| Constituency | Conservative | Labour | Liberal Democrat | SNP | UKIP | 2010 Result | 2015 Prediction |
| Aberdeen North | 12.53% | 29.51% | 5.53% | 49.93% | 0.00% | Labour | SNP |
| Aberdeen South | 24.21% | 28.02% | 9.75% | 30.73% | 0.00% | Labour | SNP |
| Aberdeenshire West & Kincardine | 33.03% | 9.76% | 12.33% | 37.95% | 5.65% | Liberal Democrat | SNP |
| Airdrie & Shotts | 8.48% | 37.05% | 2.31% | 50.68% | 0.00% | Labour | SNP |
| Angus | 21.76% | 7.95% | 2.23% | 61.74% | 6.30% | SNP | SNP |
| Argyll & Bute | 24.11% | 14.96% | 9.33% | 42.14% | 0.00% | Liberal Democrat | SNP |
| Ayr, Carrick & Cumnock | 25.74% | 31.17% | 2.75% | 40.29% | 0.00% | Labour | SNP |
| Ayrshire Central | 20.68% | 31.80% | 3.56% | 42.90% | 0.00% | Labour | SNP |
| Ayrshire North & Arran | 14.44% | 28.73% | 2.72% | 53.13% | 0.00% | Labour | SNP |
| Banff & Buchan | 22.38% | 6.68% | 2.42% | 66.51% | 0.00% | SNP | SNP |
| Berwickshire, Roxburgh & Selkirk | 41.35% | 8.20% | 16.32% | 24.90% | 8.75% | Liberal Democrat | Conservative |
| Caithness, Sutherland & Easter Ross | 15.11% | 18.75% | 14.13% | 49.37% | 0.00% | Liberal Democrat | SNP |
| Coatbridge, Chryston & Bellshill | 8.80% | 47.49% | 2.70% | 40.59% | 0.00% | Labour | Labour |
| Cumbernauld, Kilsyth & Kirkintilloch East | 8.03% | 36.45% | 2.72% | 51.22% | 0.00% | Labour | SNP |
| Dumfries & Galloway | 31.67% | 30.16% | 2.60% | 27.31% | 7.85% | Labour | Conservative |
| Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale & Tweeddale | 37.77% | 18.83% | 5.78% | 23.72% | 8.12% | Conservative | Conservative |
| Dunbartonshire East | 19.42% | 28.07% | 14.26% | 29.29% | 8.39% | Liberal Democrat | SNP |
| Dunbartonshire West | 7.23% | 37.90% | 2.25% | 42.01% | 8.97% | Labour | SNP |
| Dundee East | 11.03% | 15.86% | 2.25% | 60.80% | 4.53% | SNP | SNP |
| Dundee West | 8.39% | 28.64% | 3.02% | 57.63% | 0.00% | Labour | SNP |
| Dunfermline & Fife West | 8.54% | 38.40% | 13.05% | 29.81% | 9.64% | Labour | Labour |
| East Kilbride, Strathaven & Lesmahagow | 11.66% | 30.36% | 2.62% | 45.89% | 0.00% | Labour | SNP |
| East Lothian | 18.73% | 27.89% | 4.72% | 33.89% | 6.26% | Labour | SNP |
| Edinburgh East | 9.40% | 24.50% | 4.91% | 38.89% | 0.00% | Labour | SNP |
| Edinburgh North & Leith | 17.77% | 29.22% | 11.82% | 25.43% | 0.00% | Labour | Labour |
| Edinburgh South | 26.45% | 27.94% | 12.26% | 20.81% | 0.00% | Labour | Labour |
| Edinburgh South West | 25.47% | 29.51% | 5.56% | 28.32% | 0.00% | Labour | Labour |
| Edinburgh West | 28.39% | 22.29% | 12.94% | 35.75% | 0.00% | Liberal Democrat | SNP |
| Falkirk | 8.86% | 23.67% | 2.39% | 52.95% | 11.75% | Labour | SNP |
| Fife North East | 23.31% | 12.06% | 13.97% | 33.72% | 16.26% | Liberal Democrat | SNP |
| Glasgow Central | 6.61% | 31.97% | 4.51% | 36.37% | 4.44% | Labour | SNP |
| Glasgow East | 4.12% | 36.88% | 1.35% | 50.09% | 3.49% | Labour | SNP |
| Glasgow North | 7.81% | 32.35% | 10.21% | 29.28% | 0.00% | Labour | Labour |
| Glasgow North East | 5.97% | 50.21% | 2.53% | 35.10% | 0.00% | Labour | Labour |
| Glasgow North West | 10.02% | 35.77% | 4.69% | 34.13% | 0.00% | Labour | Labour |
| Glasgow South | 10.57% | 31.33% | 3.21% | 41.24% | 0.00% | Labour | SNP |
| Glasgow South West | 7.05% | 44.08% | 2.85% | 38.94% | 0.00% | Labour | Labour |
| Glenrothes | 6.84% | 38.81% | 2.14% | 45.70% | 5.86% | Labour | SNP |
| Gordon | 18.46% | 13.04% | 10.47% | 48.65% | 0.00% | Liberal Democrat | SNP |
| Inverclyde | 7.92% | 28.22% | 0.52% | 58.52% | 4.82% | Labour | SNP |
| Inverness, Nairn, Badenoch & Strathspey | 13.39% | 14.57% | 12.02% | 41.64% | 7.21% | Liberal Democrat | SNP |
| Kilmarnock & Loudoun | 12.98% | 31.60% | 1.98% | 52.75% | 0.00% | Labour | SNP |
| Kirkcaldy & Cowdenbeath | 9.53% | 43.41% | 2.81% | 32.51% | 10.02% | Labour | Labour |
| Lanark & Hamilton East | 13.92% | 30.44% | 3.08% | 43.25% | 7.24% | Labour | SNP |
| Linlithgow & Falkirk East | 11.32% | 30.98% | 3.57% | 53.43% | 0.00% | Labour | SNP |
| Livingston | 9.57% | 28.27% | 2.90% | 51.13% | 4.84% | Labour | SNP |
| Midlothian | 10.97% | 28.49% | 4.64% | 42.27% | 5.04% | Labour | SNP |
| Moray | 17.83% | 7.67% | 2.92% | 60.22% | 10.66% | SNP | SNP |
| Motherwell & Wishaw | 9.82% | 42.10% | 3.03% | 42.26% | 0.00% | Labour | SNP |
| Na h-Eileanan an Iar (Western Isles) | 3.09% | 15.18% | 1.54% | 71.27% | 0.00% | SNP | SNP |
| Ochil & South Perthshire | 16.43% | 19.94% | 2.69% | 49.12% | 6.45% | Labour | SNP |
| Orkney & Shetland | 10.64% | 7.09% | 18.47% | 23.72% | 37.71% | Liberal Democrat | UKIP |
| Paisley & Renfrewshire North | 14.85% | 36.06% | 3.15% | 43.01% | 0.00% | Labour | SNP |
| Paisley & Renfrewshire South | 10.36% | 40.75% | 2.92% | 41.74% | 0.00% | Labour | SNP |
| Perth & North Perthshire | 22.64% | 7.99% | 2.69% | 65.13% | 0.00% | SNP | SNP |
| Renfrewshire East | 33.31% | 36.49% | 2.97% | 21.52% | 4.69% | Labour | Labour |
| Ross, Skye & Lochaber | 12.84% | 10.41% | 16.25% | 35.17% | 11.70% | Liberal Democrat | SNP |
| Rutherglen & Hamilton West | 9.83% | 40.58% | 3.59% | 36.31% | 8.61% | Labour | Labour |
| Stirling | 22.29% | 25.41% | 3.96% | 35.53% | 4.61% | Labour | SNP |
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