Stats extracted from latest YouGov poll of Scotland (2015-03-10 to 2015-03-12):
I've taken the inverse to see things from the perspective of what a 2015 Westminster vote intention predicts about the voter, rather than how an aspect of the voter affects the way they are likely to vote. Eg:
The published stats say things like:
- 1% of Yes voters intend to vote Conservative.
- 33% of No voters intend to vote Conservative.
From this we can infer:
- If you intend to vote Conservative there is a 97.1% chance that you voted No.
If you plan to vote Conservative:
- 97.1% chance you voted No.
- 97.3% chance you would vote No now.
- 96% chance you'll vote Conservative in Holyrood.
- 57.1% chance you're female.
- You were most likely born outside UK (38.7% chance).
- Your mean age is 47.6 years.
- 74% chance you think Labour is currently divided.
- 57% chance you think SNP is currently united.
- 70.1% chance you think Nicola Sturgeon is doing badly as First Minister
- 62.9% chance you think Jim Murphy is doing badly as Scottish Labour leader.
If you plan to vote Labour:
- 82.4% chance you voted No.
- 83.0% chance you would vote No now.
- 87% chance you'll vote Labour in Holyrood.
- 50% chance you're male.
- You were most likely born Elsewhere in UK (43.4% chance).
- Your mean age is 43.9 years.
- 40% chance you think Labour is currently divided.
- 51% chance you think SNP is currently united.
- 53.9% chance you think Nicola Sturgeon is doing badly as First Minister.
- 65.5% chance you think Jim Murphy is doing well as Scottish Labour leader.
If you plan to vote Lib Dem:
- 85.7% chance you voted No.
- 87.5% chance you would vote No now.
- 50% chance you're female.
- You were most likely born outside UK (57.9% chance).
- Your mean age is 35.9 years.
If you plan to vote SNP:
- 87.6% chance you voted Yes.
- 92.4% chance you would vote Yes now.
- 93% chance you'll vote SNP in Holyrood.
- 51.6% chance you're male.
- You were most likely born in Scotland (43.6% chance).
- Your mean age is 42.4 years.
- 77% chance you think Labour is currently divided.
- 93% chance you think SNP is currently united.
- 98.0% chance you think Nicola Sturgeon is doing well as First Minister.
- 86.4% chance you think Jim Murphy is doing badly as Scottish Labour leader.
If you plan to vote Green:
- 60% chance you voted Yes.
- 66.7% chance you would vote Yes now.
- 50% chance you're female.
- You were most likely born Elsewhere in UK (55.6% chance).
- Your mean age is 26.2 years.
If you plan to vote UKIP:
- 100% chance you voted No.
- 100% chance you would vote No now.
- 75% chance you're male.
- You were most likely born outside UK (50% chance)!
- Your mean age is 33.5 years.
If you don't intend to vote in 2015:
- 65.4% chance you voted No.
- 65.4% chance you would vote No now.
- 67.7% chance you're female.
- Your mean age is 38.7 years.
If you voted Labour in 2010, then Yes in 2014:
- 81% chance you'll vote SNP in 2015.
- 83% chance you'll vote SNP in Holyrood.
If you think Nicola Sturgeon is doing well as First Minister:
- 51.2% chance you are male.
- Your mean age is 42.9 years.
- You were most likely born in Scotland (37.8% chance).
If you think Nicola Sturgeon is doing badly as First Minister:
- 52.6% chance you are male.
- Your mean age is 45.0 years.
- You were most likely born elsewhere in UK (38.2% chance).
If you think Jim Murphy is doing will as Scottish Labour leader:
- 50.9% chance you are male.
- Your mean age is 45.6 years.
- You were most likely born elsewhere in UK (36.8% chance).
If you think Jim Murphy is doing badly as Scottish Labour leader:
- 57.7% chance you are male.
- Your mean age is 43.4 years.
- You were most likely born in Scotland (39.7% chance).
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