Poll of polls for Voting Intention of the Scottish Electorate in UK 2015 General Election:

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| Voting Intention of the Scottish Electorate for UK 2015 General Election |
Voting Intention of the Scottish Electorate for UK 2015 General Election
Individual points are poll results. Poll results are centred on the midway point of a poll, so if poll was taken from the 11th to the 13th it will be placed at the 12th. Point size is a rough indicator of the sample count of the poll.
The lines are an exponentially smoothed sample count weighted moving average. The Scottish part extracted from a UK wide poll with only 150 usable samples will have a lesser effect on the moving average than a poll of Scotland with 1000 samples.
Overall Seat change summary:
| Party |
Seats Lost |
Seats Held |
Seats Won |
Total Seats |
| Alliance Party |
0 |
1 |
0 |
1 |
| Conservative |
53 |
250 |
33 |
283 |
| DUP |
0 |
8 |
0 |
8 |
| Green |
0 |
1 |
4 |
5 |
| Labour |
32 |
226 |
63 |
289 |
| Liberal Democrat |
57 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
| Plaid Cymru |
2 |
1 |
1 |
2 |
| Respect |
0 |
1 |
0 |
1 |
| SDLP |
0 |
3 |
0 |
3 |
| SNP |
0 |
6 |
36 |
42 |
| Sinn Fein |
1 |
4 |
0 |
4 |
| Speaker |
1 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
| Sylvia Hermon |
0 |
1 |
0 |
1 |
| UKIP |
0 |
2 |
8 |
10 |
| UUP |
0 |
0 |
1 |
1 |
Scotland seat change summary:
| Party |
Seats Lost |
Seats Held |
Seats Won |
Total Seats |
| Conservative |
0 |
1 |
2 |
3 |
| Labour |
28 |
13 |
0 |
13 |
| Liberal Democrat |
11 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
| SNP |
0 |
6 |
36 |
42 |
| UKIP |
0 |
0 |
1 |
1 |
Scotland vote share multiplying factors:
| Party |
2010 % |
Predicted % |
Multiplier |
| Conservative |
16.74% |
16.34% |
0.98x |
| Green |
0.68% |
3.42% |
5.01x |
| Labour |
42.00% |
27.11% |
0.65x |
| Liberal Democrat |
18.88% |
5.13% |
0.27x |
| SNP |
19.93% |
42.95% |
2.16x |
| UKIP |
0.70% |
3.77% |
5.40x |
Predicted UK GE 2015 Constituency results in Scotland:
| Constituency |
Conservative |
Labour |
Liberal Democrat |
SNP |
UKIP |
2010 Result |
2015 Prediction |
| Aberdeen North |
12.56% |
29.83% |
5.25% |
49.86% |
0.00% |
Labour |
SNP |
| Aberdeen South |
24.23% |
28.27% |
9.24% |
30.63% |
0.00% |
Labour |
SNP |
| Aberdeenshire West & Kincardine |
33.39% |
9.94% |
11.80% |
38.20% |
5.36% |
Liberal Democrat |
SNP |
| Airdrie & Shotts |
8.49% |
37.36% |
2.18% |
50.49% |
0.00% |
Labour |
SNP |
| Angus |
21.91% |
8.07% |
2.13% |
61.92% |
5.96% |
SNP |
SNP |
| Argyll & Bute |
24.11% |
15.08% |
8.83% |
41.97% |
0.00% |
Liberal Democrat |
SNP |
| Ayr, Carrick & Cumnock |
25.75% |
31.44% |
2.61% |
40.15% |
0.00% |
Labour |
SNP |
| Ayrshire Central |
20.71% |
32.09% |
3.37% |
42.77% |
0.00% |
Labour |
SNP |
| Ayrshire North & Arran |
14.46% |
29.00% |
2.58% |
52.98% |
0.00% |
Labour |
SNP |
| Banff & Buchan |
22.46% |
6.75% |
2.31% |
66.47% |
0.00% |
SNP |
SNP |
| Berwickshire, Roxburgh & Selkirk |
41.95% |
8.38% |
15.68% |
25.16% |
8.34% |
Liberal Democrat |
Conservative |
| Caithness, Sutherland & Easter Ross |
15.23% |
19.06% |
13.49% |
49.57% |
0.00% |
Liberal Democrat |
SNP |
| Coatbridge, Chryston & Bellshill |
8.80% |
47.83% |
2.55% |
40.40% |
0.00% |
Labour |
Labour |
| Cumbernauld, Kilsyth & Kirkintilloch East |
8.04% |
36.76% |
2.58% |
51.05% |
0.00% |
Labour |
SNP |
| Dumfries & Galloway |
31.82% |
30.55% |
2.47% |
27.34% |
7.41% |
Labour |
Conservative |
| Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale & Tweeddale |
37.92% |
19.06% |
5.49% |
23.72% |
7.65% |
Conservative |
Conservative |
| Dunbartonshire East |
19.65% |
28.63% |
13.66% |
29.52% |
7.97% |
Liberal Democrat |
SNP |
| Dunbartonshire West |
7.27% |
38.41% |
2.14% |
42.07% |
8.47% |
Labour |
SNP |
| Dundee East |
11.06% |
16.02% |
2.14% |
60.69% |
4.27% |
SNP |
SNP |
| Dundee West |
8.41% |
28.91% |
2.86% |
57.49% |
0.00% |
Labour |
SNP |
| Dunfermline & Fife West |
8.64% |
39.14% |
12.49% |
30.02% |
9.15% |
Labour |
Labour |
| East Kilbride, Strathaven & Lesmahagow |
11.60% |
30.46% |
2.47% |
45.49% |
0.00% |
Labour |
SNP |
| East Lothian |
18.74% |
28.12% |
4.48% |
33.76% |
5.88% |
Labour |
SNP |
| Edinburgh East |
9.29% |
24.42% |
4.60% |
38.30% |
0.00% |
Labour |
SNP |
| Edinburgh North & Leith |
17.71% |
29.36% |
11.16% |
25.24% |
0.00% |
Labour |
Labour |
| Edinburgh South |
26.38% |
28.09% |
11.58% |
20.67% |
0.00% |
Labour |
Labour |
| Edinburgh South West |
25.35% |
29.62% |
5.24% |
28.08% |
0.00% |
Labour |
Labour |
| Edinburgh West |
28.58% |
22.61% |
12.33% |
35.84% |
0.00% |
Liberal Democrat |
SNP |
| Falkirk |
8.93% |
24.07% |
2.28% |
53.20% |
11.12% |
Labour |
SNP |
| Fife North East |
23.73% |
12.37% |
13.47% |
34.19% |
15.54% |
Liberal Democrat |
SNP |
| Glasgow Central |
6.58% |
32.11% |
4.26% |
36.10% |
4.15% |
Labour |
SNP |
| Glasgow East |
4.13% |
37.25% |
1.28% |
49.99% |
3.29% |
Labour |
SNP |
| Glasgow North |
7.76% |
32.39% |
9.60% |
28.96% |
0.00% |
Labour |
Labour |
| Glasgow North East |
5.97% |
50.55% |
2.39% |
34.91% |
0.00% |
Labour |
Labour |
| Glasgow North West |
9.96% |
35.82% |
4.41% |
33.76% |
0.00% |
Labour |
Labour |
| Glasgow South |
10.51% |
31.40% |
3.02% |
40.83% |
0.00% |
Labour |
SNP |
| Glasgow South West |
7.04% |
44.42% |
2.70% |
38.77% |
0.00% |
Labour |
Labour |
| Glenrothes |
6.87% |
39.25% |
2.03% |
45.68% |
5.52% |
Labour |
SNP |
| Gordon |
18.50% |
13.17% |
9.93% |
48.54% |
0.00% |
Liberal Democrat |
SNP |
| Inverclyde |
7.94% |
28.54% |
0.50% |
58.48% |
4.54% |
Labour |
SNP |
| Inverness, Nairn, Badenoch & Strathspey |
13.47% |
14.77% |
11.46% |
41.72% |
6.81% |
Liberal Democrat |
SNP |
| Kilmarnock & Loudoun |
12.99% |
31.88% |
1.88% |
52.57% |
0.00% |
Labour |
SNP |
| Kirkcaldy & Cowdenbeath |
9.58% |
44.00% |
2.68% |
32.55% |
9.46% |
Labour |
Labour |
| Lanark & Hamilton East |
14.00% |
30.85% |
2.93% |
43.31% |
6.83% |
Labour |
SNP |
| Linlithgow & Falkirk East |
11.34% |
31.28% |
3.38% |
53.30% |
0.00% |
Labour |
SNP |
| Livingston |
9.61% |
28.62% |
2.76% |
51.14% |
4.57% |
Labour |
SNP |
| Midlothian |
10.98% |
28.74% |
4.40% |
42.12% |
4.74% |
Labour |
SNP |
| Moray |
18.01% |
7.81% |
2.79% |
60.58% |
10.11% |
SNP |
SNP |
| Motherwell & Wishaw |
9.82% |
42.43% |
2.87% |
42.09% |
0.00% |
Labour |
Labour |
| Na h-Eileanan an Iar (Western Isles) |
3.10% |
15.34% |
1.46% |
71.16% |
0.00% |
SNP |
SNP |
| Ochil & South Perthshire |
16.47% |
20.16% |
2.55% |
49.05% |
6.07% |
Labour |
SNP |
| Orkney & Shetland |
11.01% |
7.39% |
18.09% |
24.44% |
36.63% |
Liberal Democrat |
UKIP |
| Paisley & Renfrewshire North |
14.86% |
36.37% |
2.98% |
42.86% |
0.00% |
Labour |
SNP |
| Paisley & Renfrewshire South |
10.36% |
41.08% |
2.76% |
41.57% |
0.00% |
Labour |
SNP |
| Perth & North Perthshire |
22.72% |
8.08% |
2.55% |
65.09% |
0.00% |
SNP |
SNP |
| Renfrewshire East |
33.39% |
36.87% |
2.82% |
21.48% |
4.41% |
Labour |
Labour |
| Ross, Skye & Lochaber |
12.96% |
10.59% |
15.53% |
35.35% |
11.08% |
Liberal Democrat |
SNP |
| Rutherglen & Hamilton West |
9.88% |
41.13% |
3.41% |
36.36% |
8.13% |
Labour |
Labour |
| Stirling |
22.28% |
25.61% |
3.75% |
35.37% |
4.32% |
Labour |
SNP |
Wales seat change summary:
| Party |
Seats Lost |
Seats Held |
Seats Won |
Total Seats |
| Conservative |
1 |
7 |
1 |
8 |
| Labour |
0 |
26 |
4 |
30 |
| Liberal Democrat |
3 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
| Plaid Cymru |
2 |
1 |
1 |
2 |
Wales vote share multiplying factors:
| Party |
2010 % |
Predicted % |
Multiplier |
| Conservative |
26.10% |
26.00% |
1.00x |
| Green |
0.40% |
3.79% |
9.48x |
| Labour |
36.20% |
39.41% |
1.09x |
| Liberal Democrat |
20.10% |
7.79% |
0.39x |
| Plaid Cymru |
11.30% |
9.00% |
0.80x |
| UKIP |
2.40% |
12.38% |
5.16x |
Predicted UK GE 2015 Constituency results in Wales:
| Constituency |
Conservative |
Labour |
Liberal Democrat |
Plaid Cymru |
2010 Result |
2015 Prediction |
| Aberavon |
14.23% |
56.69% |
6.32% |
5.67% |
Labour |
Labour |
| Aberconwy |
37.42% |
27.95% |
7.85% |
14.89% |
Conservative |
Conservative |
| Alyn & Deeside |
31.55% |
42.29% |
6.96% |
3.03% |
Labour |
Labour |
| Arfon |
17.27% |
33.88% |
5.58% |
29.34% |
Plaid Cymru |
Labour |
| Blaenau Gwent |
6.69% |
54.82% |
3.78% |
3.15% |
Labour |
Labour |
| Brecon & Radnorshire |
40.84% |
12.89% |
20.09% |
2.27% |
Liberal Democrat |
Conservative |
| Bridgend |
31.25% |
40.77% |
9.02% |
4.86% |
Labour |
Labour |
| Caerphilly |
16.78% |
48.13% |
5.61% |
13.09% |
Labour |
Labour |
| Cardiff Central |
21.70% |
31.63% |
16.22% |
2.77% |
Liberal Democrat |
Labour |
| Cardiff North |
34.64% |
37.45% |
6.58% |
2.46% |
Conservative |
Labour |
| Cardiff South & Penarth |
12.70% |
33.08% |
2.69% |
4.88% |
Labour |
Labour |
| Cardiff West |
24.91% |
37.88% |
5.74% |
4.70% |
Labour |
Labour |
| Carmarthen East & Dinefwr |
21.86% |
28.27% |
4.61% |
27.83% |
Plaid Cymru |
Labour |
| Carmarthen West & Pembrokeshire South |
38.88% |
33.76% |
4.44% |
7.90% |
Conservative |
Conservative |
| Ceredigion |
12.72% |
6.95% |
21.44% |
24.88% |
Liberal Democrat |
Plaid Cymru |
| Clwyd South |
29.72% |
41.27% |
6.58% |
6.82% |
Labour |
Labour |
| Clwyd West |
41.63% |
27.05% |
5.94% |
12.33% |
Conservative |
Conservative |
| Cynon Valley |
9.42% |
53.63% |
5.02% |
15.17% |
Labour |
Labour |
| Delyn |
34.23% |
44.05% |
5.98% |
3.94% |
Labour |
Labour |
| Dwyfor Meirionnydd |
23.01% |
15.68% |
4.91% |
36.57% |
Plaid Cymru |
Plaid Cymru |
| Gower |
32.72% |
42.95% |
7.59% |
5.41% |
Labour |
Labour |
| Islwyn |
12.98% |
49.88% |
3.74% |
9.66% |
Labour |
Labour |
| Llanelli |
13.78% |
44.54% |
3.89% |
22.96% |
Labour |
Labour |
| Merthyr Tydfil & Rhymney |
7.77% |
49.34% |
12.48% |
4.18% |
Labour |
Labour |
| Monmouth |
43.23% |
25.32% |
6.76% |
1.96% |
Conservative |
Conservative |
| Montgomeryshire |
45.41% |
8.55% |
16.17% |
7.28% |
Conservative |
Conservative |
| Neath |
12.85% |
49.74% |
5.71% |
15.67% |
Labour |
Labour |
| Newport East |
24.77% |
43.58% |
13.51% |
1.81% |
Labour |
Labour |
| Newport West |
27.91% |
38.91% |
5.57% |
1.95% |
Labour |
Labour |
| Ogmore |
14.91% |
56.28% |
5.65% |
7.34% |
Labour |
Labour |
| Pontypridd |
15.16% |
39.71% |
11.37% |
5.46% |
Labour |
Labour |
| Preseli Pembrokeshire |
41.59% |
33.10% |
5.50% |
7.17% |
Conservative |
Conservative |
| Rhondda |
6.33% |
59.63% |
4.09% |
14.29% |
Labour |
Labour |
| Swansea East |
13.06% |
49.78% |
6.30% |
4.72% |
Labour |
Labour |
| Swansea West |
20.45% |
37.22% |
12.71% |
3.17% |
Labour |
Labour |
| Torfaen |
17.58% |
42.92% |
5.68% |
3.74% |
Labour |
Labour |
| Vale of Clwyd |
34.24% |
44.93% |
4.76% |
4.53% |
Labour |
Labour |
| Vale of Glamorgan |
36.34% |
31.31% |
5.15% |
3.81% |
Conservative |
Conservative |
| Wrexham |
25.86% |
41.04% |
10.22% |
5.01% |
Labour |
Labour |
| Ynys Mon |
20.49% |
33.23% |
2.67% |
19.10% |
Labour |
Labour |
London seat change summary:
| Party |
Seats Lost |
Seats Held |
Seats Won |
Total Seats |
| Conservative |
5 |
23 |
4 |
27 |
| Labour |
0 |
38 |
8 |
46 |
| Liberal Democrat |
7 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
London vote share multiplying factors:
| Party |
2010 % |
Predicted % |
Multiplier |
| Conservative |
34.50% |
32.95% |
0.96x |
| Green |
1.60% |
4.46% |
2.79x |
| Labour |
36.60% |
41.98% |
1.15x |
| Liberal Democrat |
22.10% |
9.83% |
0.45x |
| UKIP |
1.70% |
8.75% |
5.15x |
Predicted UK GE 2015 Constituency results in London:
| Constituency |
Conservative |
Labour |
Liberal Democrat |
2010 Result |
2015 Prediction |
| Barking |
14.68% |
53.78% |
3.15% |
Labour |
Labour |
| Battersea |
44.65% |
39.75% |
6.46% |
Conservative |
Conservative |
| Beckenham |
53.16% |
15.95% |
8.81% |
Conservative |
Conservative |
| Bermondsey & Old Southwark |
20.50% |
42.11% |
27.00% |
Liberal Democrat |
Labour |
| Bethnal Green & Bow |
13.63% |
50.45% |
9.17% |
Labour |
Labour |
| Bexleyheath & Crayford |
43.35% |
27.36% |
5.10% |
Conservative |
Conservative |
| Brent Central |
12.73% |
56.37% |
23.44% |
Liberal Democrat |
Labour |
| Brent North |
29.60% |
52.86% |
7.43% |
Labour |
Labour |
| Brentford & Isleworth |
35.71% |
38.70% |
10.57% |
Conservative |
Labour |
| Bromley & Chislehurst |
49.05% |
18.23% |
9.37% |
Conservative |
Conservative |
| Camberwell & Peckham |
12.30% |
67.11% |
9.83% |
Labour |
Labour |
| Carshalton & Wallington |
40.60% |
11.57% |
24.80% |
Liberal Democrat |
Conservative |
| Chelsea & Fulham |
58.12% |
21.36% |
7.27% |
Conservative |
Conservative |
| Chingford & Woodford Green |
47.73% |
24.65% |
7.08% |
Conservative |
Conservative |
| Chipping Barnet |
43.95% |
27.30% |
8.46% |
Conservative |
Conservative |
| Cities of London & Westminster |
49.24% |
25.14% |
9.02% |
Conservative |
Conservative |
| Croydon Central |
35.29% |
36.15% |
5.51% |
Conservative |
Labour |
| Croydon North |
11.77% |
54.30% |
1.14% |
Labour |
Labour |
| Croydon South |
44.28% |
20.93% |
9.25% |
Conservative |
Conservative |
| Dagenham & Rainham |
28.28% |
39.85% |
3.30% |
Labour |
Labour |
| Dulwich & West Norwood |
20.75% |
52.40% |
11.85% |
Labour |
Labour |
| Ealing Central & Acton |
37.29% |
35.51% |
12.63% |
Conservative |
Conservative |
| Ealing North |
27.55% |
54.00% |
5.48% |
Labour |
Labour |
| Ealing Southall |
28.04% |
58.26% |
6.55% |
Labour |
Labour |
| East Ham |
13.71% |
76.38% |
4.88% |
Labour |
Labour |
| Edmonton |
24.96% |
53.89% |
4.10% |
Labour |
Labour |
| Eltham |
32.67% |
43.38% |
5.12% |
Labour |
Labour |
| Enfield North |
37.31% |
40.78% |
4.99% |
Conservative |
Labour |
| Enfield Southgate |
45.99% |
36.03% |
5.98% |
Conservative |
Conservative |
| Erith & Thamesmead |
26.94% |
46.16% |
4.80% |
Labour |
Labour |
| Feltham & Heston |
20.42% |
48.18% |
2.01% |
Labour |
Labour |
| Finchley & Golders Green |
42.26% |
37.16% |
7.29% |
Conservative |
Conservative |
| Greenwich & Woolwich |
23.14% |
55.71% |
8.00% |
Labour |
Labour |
| Hackney North & Stoke Newington |
13.49% |
61.25% |
10.31% |
Labour |
Labour |
| Hackney South & Shoreditch |
11.93% |
59.01% |
9.20% |
Labour |
Labour |
| Hammersmith |
33.40% |
48.37% |
6.82% |
Labour |
Labour |
| Hampstead & Kilburn |
33.85% |
40.76% |
15.04% |
Labour |
Labour |
| Harrow East |
39.89% |
40.30% |
5.94% |
Conservative |
Labour |
| Harrow West |
32.71% |
46.56% |
6.70% |
Labour |
Labour |
| Hayes & Harlington |
27.02% |
60.44% |
3.74% |
Labour |
Labour |
| Hendon |
37.22% |
44.46% |
5.06% |
Conservative |
Labour |
| Holborn & St Pancras |
19.41% |
52.76% |
12.39% |
Labour |
Labour |
| Hornchurch & Upminster |
41.79% |
20.28% |
5.26% |
Conservative |
Conservative |
| Hornsey & Wood Green |
19.15% |
46.93% |
24.89% |
Liberal Democrat |
Labour |
| Ilford North |
41.02% |
36.89% |
5.30% |
Conservative |
Conservative |
| Ilford South |
23.54% |
51.05% |
6.79% |
Labour |
Labour |
| Islington North |
12.89% |
59.29% |
11.25% |
Labour |
Labour |
| Islington South & Finsbury |
19.14% |
50.08% |
15.66% |
Labour |
Labour |
| Kensington |
45.81% |
28.08% |
8.34% |
Conservative |
Conservative |
| Kingston & Surbiton |
41.07% |
12.61% |
26.07% |
Liberal Democrat |
Conservative |
| Lewisham Deptford |
11.99% |
57.43% |
9.70% |
Labour |
Labour |
| Lewisham East |
22.36% |
48.98% |
12.42% |
Labour |
Labour |
| Lewisham West & Penge |
23.41% |
45.28% |
12.03% |
Labour |
Labour |
| Leyton & Wanstead |
20.29% |
47.79% |
11.75% |
Labour |
Labour |
| Mitcham & Morden |
21.69% |
58.25% |
4.75% |
Labour |
Labour |
| Old Bexley & Sidcup |
47.75% |
20.42% |
6.32% |
Conservative |
Conservative |
| Orpington |
57.40% |
10.39% |
10.99% |
Conservative |
Conservative |
| Poplar & Limehouse |
24.36% |
43.21% |
4.67% |
Labour |
Labour |
| Putney |
49.48% |
31.28% |
7.50% |
Conservative |
Conservative |
| Richmond Park |
57.93% |
7.03% |
23.24% |
Conservative |
Conservative |
| Romford |
46.61% |
19.52% |
4.65% |
Conservative |
Conservative |
| Ruislip, Northwood & Pinner |
51.89% |
21.17% |
6.99% |
Conservative |
Conservative |
| Streatham |
19.43% |
54.50% |
17.70% |
Labour |
Labour |
| Sutton & Cheam |
48.19% |
9.51% |
24.21% |
Liberal Democrat |
Conservative |
| Tooting |
35.09% |
47.60% |
6.29% |
Labour |
Labour |
| Tottenham |
13.09% |
62.57% |
7.24% |
Labour |
Labour |
| Twickenham |
41.48% |
11.22% |
30.86% |
Liberal Democrat |
Conservative |
| Uxbridge & Ruislip South |
44.01% |
25.61% |
8.48% |
Conservative |
Conservative |
| Vauxhall |
21.27% |
59.04% |
11.55% |
Labour |
Labour |
| Walthamstow |
12.82% |
57.08% |
12.27% |
Labour |
Labour |
| West Ham |
12.43% |
63.77% |
4.53% |
Labour |
Labour |
| Westminster North |
35.37% |
48.40% |
5.96% |
Labour |
Labour |
| Wimbledon |
47.47% |
25.86% |
11.27% |
Conservative |
Conservative |
East Midlands seat change summary:
| Party |
Seats Lost |
Seats Held |
Seats Won |
Total Seats |
| Conservative |
9 |
21 |
0 |
21 |
| Labour |
1 |
15 |
8 |
23 |
| UKIP |
0 |
0 |
2 |
2 |
East Midlands vote share multiplying factors:
| Party |
2010 % |
Predicted % |
Multiplier |
| Conservative |
39.60% |
34.96% |
0.88x |
| Green |
1.00% |
6.49% |
6.49x |
| Labour |
28.10% |
32.63% |
1.16x |
| Liberal Democrat |
24.20% |
8.75% |
0.36x |
| UKIP |
3.50% |
15.05% |
4.30x |
Predicted UK GE 2015 Constituency results in East Midlands:
| Constituency |
Conservative |
Labour |
UKIP |
2010 Result |
2015 Prediction |
| Amber Valley |
34.49% |
44.01% |
8.58% |
Conservative |
Labour |
| Ashfield |
22.26% |
44.46% |
9.46% |
Labour |
Labour |
| Bassetlaw |
27.47% |
53.81% |
14.17% |
Labour |
Labour |
| Bolsover |
20.02% |
53.58% |
15.53% |
Labour |
Labour |
| Boston & Skegness |
36.52% |
20.05% |
34.05% |
Conservative |
Conservative |
| Bosworth |
45.27% |
22.33% |
10.47% |
Conservative |
Conservative |
| Broxtowe |
33.49% |
43.23% |
9.46% |
Conservative |
Labour |
| Charnwood |
46.12% |
24.07% |
15.22% |
Conservative |
Conservative |
| Chesterfield |
14.16% |
46.20% |
13.69% |
Labour |
Labour |
| Corby |
15.17% |
36.36% |
39.84% |
Labour |
UKIP |
| Daventry |
46.66% |
17.14% |
18.13% |
Conservative |
Conservative |
| Derby North |
31.01% |
42.55% |
8.77% |
Labour |
Labour |
| Derby South |
23.80% |
47.65% |
18.00% |
Labour |
Labour |
| Derbyshire Dales |
43.95% |
21.49% |
15.63% |
Conservative |
Conservative |
| Derbyshire Mid |
45.23% |
30.13% |
12.06% |
Conservative |
Conservative |
| Derbyshire North East |
27.37% |
41.68% |
22.67% |
Labour |
Labour |
| Derbyshire South |
41.04% |
37.21% |
10.51% |
Conservative |
Conservative |
| Erewash |
34.06% |
38.85% |
7.54% |
Conservative |
Labour |
| Gainsborough |
46.60% |
19.45% |
19.32% |
Conservative |
Conservative |
| Gedling |
31.93% |
46.35% |
12.63% |
Labour |
Labour |
| Grantham & Stamford |
47.54% |
22.38% |
13.99% |
Conservative |
Conservative |
| Harborough |
50.39% |
17.20% |
13.34% |
Conservative |
Conservative |
| High Peak |
33.39% |
33.95% |
13.35% |
Conservative |
Labour |
| Kettering |
48.35% |
38.73% |
0.00% |
Conservative |
Conservative |
| Leicester East |
19.45% |
56.33% |
5.86% |
Labour |
Labour |
| Leicester South |
12.99% |
65.36% |
12.17% |
Labour |
Labour |
| Leicester West |
22.31% |
41.46% |
9.86% |
Labour |
Labour |
| Leicestershire North West |
40.59% |
36.07% |
9.69% |
Conservative |
Conservative |
| Leicestershire South |
45.10% |
25.04% |
16.18% |
Conservative |
Conservative |
| Lincoln |
34.37% |
42.43% |
9.79% |
Conservative |
Labour |
| Loughborough |
38.44% |
41.95% |
7.88% |
Conservative |
Labour |
| Louth & Horncastle |
44.79% |
20.59% |
19.00% |
Conservative |
Conservative |
| Mansfield |
20.30% |
39.31% |
23.17% |
Labour |
Labour |
| Newark |
20.24% |
10.45% |
56.73% |
Conservative |
UKIP |
| Northampton North |
30.07% |
33.98% |
13.20% |
Conservative |
Labour |
| Northampton South |
33.02% |
27.05% |
19.17% |
Conservative |
Conservative |
| Northamptonshire South |
47.28% |
19.51% |
16.75% |
Conservative |
Conservative |
| Nottingham East |
17.87% |
45.02% |
12.63% |
Labour |
Labour |
| Nottingham North |
20.25% |
52.12% |
15.52% |
Labour |
Labour |
| Nottingham South |
27.75% |
41.32% |
9.73% |
Labour |
Labour |
| Rushcliffe |
40.85% |
21.77% |
15.79% |
Conservative |
Conservative |
| Rutland & Melton |
47.08% |
17.32% |
20.53% |
Conservative |
Conservative |
| Sherwood |
33.55% |
43.65% |
12.68% |
Conservative |
Labour |
| Sleaford & North Hykeham |
46.51% |
20.02% |
15.96% |
Conservative |
Conservative |
| South Holland & The Deepings |
45.04% |
14.04% |
24.03% |
Conservative |
Conservative |
| Wellingborough |
40.85% |
28.32% |
13.07% |
Conservative |
Conservative |
West Midlands seat change summary:
| Party |
Seats Lost |
Seats Held |
Seats Won |
Total Seats |
| Conservative |
8 |
25 |
1 |
26 |
| Labour |
0 |
24 |
9 |
33 |
| Liberal Democrat |
2 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
West Midlands vote share multiplying factors:
| Party |
2010 % |
Predicted % |
Multiplier |
| Conservative |
39.60% |
34.96% |
0.88x |
| Green |
1.00% |
6.49% |
6.49x |
| Labour |
28.10% |
32.63% |
1.16x |
| Liberal Democrat |
24.20% |
8.75% |
0.36x |
| UKIP |
3.50% |
15.05% |
4.30x |
Predicted UK GE 2015 Constituency results in West Midlands:
| Constituency |
Conservative |
Labour |
Liberal Democrat |
2010 Result |
2015 Prediction |
| Aldridge-Brownhills |
53.98% |
23.70% |
6.59% |
Conservative |
Conservative |
| Birmingham Edgbaston |
31.75% |
45.17% |
5.32% |
Labour |
Labour |
| Birmingham Erdington |
28.62% |
48.29% |
5.81% |
Labour |
Labour |
| Birmingham Hall Green |
14.05% |
40.49% |
9.42% |
Labour |
Labour |
| Birmingham Hodge Hill |
10.80% |
63.53% |
10.55% |
Labour |
Labour |
| Birmingham Ladywood |
9.43% |
57.90% |
8.90% |
Labour |
Labour |
| Birmingham Northfield |
27.28% |
42.99% |
5.21% |
Labour |
Labour |
| Birmingham Perry Barr |
17.94% |
55.67% |
7.57% |
Labour |
Labour |
| Birmingham Selly Oak |
26.29% |
42.91% |
7.72% |
Labour |
Labour |
| Birmingham Yardley |
19.36% |
42.77% |
16.36% |
Liberal Democrat |
Labour |
| Bromsgrove |
36.75% |
24.11% |
6.76% |
Conservative |
Conservative |
| Burton |
39.45% |
37.16% |
5.75% |
Conservative |
Conservative |
| Cannock Chase |
34.87% |
37.85% |
6.04% |
Conservative |
Labour |
| Coventry North East |
18.63% |
54.54% |
5.73% |
Labour |
Labour |
| Coventry North West |
24.09% |
46.29% |
6.03% |
Labour |
Labour |
| Coventry South |
26.34% |
43.34% |
5.82% |
Labour |
Labour |
| Dudley North |
26.40% |
36.31% |
3.08% |
Labour |
Labour |
| Dudley South |
32.28% |
32.51% |
4.81% |
Conservative |
Labour |
| Halesowen & Rowley Regis |
32.05% |
37.46% |
4.72% |
Conservative |
Labour |
| Hereford & Herefordshire South |
50.19% |
10.35% |
18.28% |
Conservative |
Conservative |
| Herefordshire North |
40.69% |
7.33% |
9.98% |
Conservative |
Conservative |
| Kenilworth & Southam |
50.43% |
17.77% |
10.66% |
Conservative |
Conservative |
| Lichfield |
46.44% |
22.28% |
7.03% |
Conservative |
Conservative |
| Ludlow |
49.47% |
8.28% |
12.58% |
Conservative |
Conservative |
| Meriden |
44.51% |
23.25% |
6.27% |
Conservative |
Conservative |
| Newcastle-under-Lyme |
25.88% |
37.60% |
6.05% |
Labour |
Labour |
| Nuneaton |
39.72% |
46.42% |
6.01% |
Conservative |
Labour |
| Redditch |
36.30% |
33.23% |
6.02% |
Conservative |
Conservative |
| Rugby |
40.38% |
37.87% |
7.47% |
Conservative |
Conservative |
| Shrewsbury & Atcham |
40.16% |
24.74% |
10.85% |
Conservative |
Conservative |
| Shropshire North |
41.86% |
19.40% |
6.98% |
Conservative |
Conservative |
| Solihull |
48.67% |
13.35% |
20.08% |
Liberal Democrat |
Conservative |
| Stafford |
35.77% |
35.40% |
5.46% |
Conservative |
Conservative |
| Staffordshire Moorlands |
34.08% |
29.68% |
5.17% |
Conservative |
Conservative |
| Staffordshire South |
44.54% |
22.37% |
5.73% |
Conservative |
Conservative |
| Stoke-on-Trent Central |
17.55% |
42.59% |
7.40% |
Labour |
Labour |
| Stoke-on-Trent North |
18.33% |
44.84% |
5.58% |
Labour |
Labour |
| Stoke-on-Trent South |
23.77% |
42.69% |
5.44% |
Labour |
Labour |
| Stone |
41.63% |
22.40% |
7.57% |
Conservative |
Conservative |
| Stourbridge |
34.21% |
33.48% |
5.38% |
Conservative |
Conservative |
| Stratford-on-Avon |
47.52% |
11.54% |
10.99% |
Conservative |
Conservative |
| Sutton Coldfield |
46.39% |
23.02% |
6.34% |
Conservative |
Conservative |
| Tamworth |
37.84% |
35.51% |
5.48% |
Conservative |
Conservative |
| Telford |
28.39% |
39.79% |
4.96% |
Labour |
Labour |
| Walsall North |
27.23% |
38.68% |
4.28% |
Labour |
Labour |
| Walsall South |
25.51% |
37.63% |
4.25% |
Labour |
Labour |
| Warley |
18.25% |
51.24% |
4.67% |
Labour |
Labour |
| Warwick & Leamington |
36.05% |
39.45% |
6.35% |
Conservative |
Labour |
| Warwickshire North |
33.80% |
44.34% |
3.99% |
Conservative |
Labour |
| West Bromwich East |
24.08% |
51.03% |
4.49% |
Labour |
Labour |
| West Bromwich West |
23.09% |
46.56% |
3.86% |
Labour |
Labour |
| Wolverhampton North East |
28.39% |
45.10% |
4.58% |
Labour |
Labour |
| Wolverhampton South East |
20.69% |
45.31% |
4.51% |
Labour |
Labour |
| Wolverhampton South West |
34.19% |
43.07% |
5.51% |
Conservative |
Labour |
| Worcester |
32.60% |
36.28% |
6.57% |
Conservative |
Labour |
| Worcestershire Mid |
44.37% |
16.00% |
7.79% |
Conservative |
Conservative |
| Worcestershire West |
48.46% |
8.58% |
14.92% |
Conservative |
Conservative |
| Wrekin, The |
40.57% |
30.37% |
6.08% |
Conservative |
Conservative |
| Wyre Forest |
32.15% |
16.42% |
4.23% |
Conservative |
Conservative |
South West seat change summary:
| Party |
Seats Lost |
Seats Held |
Seats Won |
Total Seats |
| Conservative |
4 |
32 |
14 |
46 |
| Labour |
0 |
4 |
5 |
9 |
| Liberal Democrat |
15 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
South West vote share multiplying factors:
| Party |
2010 % |
Predicted % |
Multiplier |
| Conservative |
39.60% |
36.74% |
0.93x |
| Green |
1.00% |
7.02% |
7.02x |
| Labour |
28.10% |
30.79% |
1.10x |
| Liberal Democrat |
24.20% |
9.53% |
0.39x |
| Speaker |
39.60% |
36.74% |
0.93x |
| UKIP |
3.50% |
14.32% |
4.09x |
Predicted UK GE 2015 Constituency results in South West:
| Constituency |
Conservative |
Labour |
Liberal Democrat |
2010 Result |
2015 Prediction |
| Bath |
34.51% |
8.97% |
26.44% |
Liberal Democrat |
Conservative |
| Bournemouth East |
44.70% |
14.45% |
12.10% |
Conservative |
Conservative |
| Bournemouth West |
41.32% |
16.01% |
12.33% |
Conservative |
Conservative |
| Bridgwater & Somerset West |
39.76% |
17.76% |
10.55% |
Conservative |
Conservative |
| Bristol East |
24.33% |
37.13% |
8.91% |
Labour |
Labour |
| Bristol North West |
37.40% |
30.18% |
13.16% |
Conservative |
Conservative |
| Bristol South |
19.67% |
38.99% |
10.44% |
Labour |
Labour |
| Bristol West |
17.26% |
30.53% |
19.16% |
Liberal Democrat |
Labour |
| Camborne & Redruth |
34.75% |
17.85% |
14.69% |
Conservative |
Conservative |
| Cheltenham |
51.53% |
7.57% |
26.82% |
Liberal Democrat |
Conservative |
| Chippenham |
44.33% |
8.82% |
20.98% |
Liberal Democrat |
Conservative |
| Christchurch |
48.41% |
9.94% |
9.19% |
Conservative |
Conservative |
| Cornwall North |
46.17% |
5.50% |
22.59% |
Liberal Democrat |
Conservative |
| Cornwall South East |
40.43% |
7.48% |
14.69% |
Conservative |
Conservative |
| Cotswolds, The |
47.85% |
11.44% |
11.32% |
Conservative |
Conservative |
| Devizes |
48.45% |
10.57% |
10.09% |
Conservative |
Conservative |
| Devon Central |
45.67% |
7.22% |
12.93% |
Conservative |
Conservative |
| Devon East |
39.49% |
10.40% |
10.81% |
Conservative |
Conservative |
| Devon North |
33.37% |
5.70% |
18.62% |
Liberal Democrat |
Conservative |
| Devon South West |
47.31% |
12.40% |
8.66% |
Conservative |
Conservative |
| Devon West & Torridge |
41.75% |
5.70% |
15.65% |
Conservative |
Conservative |
| Dorset Mid & Poole North |
48.96% |
7.63% |
21.05% |
Liberal Democrat |
Conservative |
| Dorset North |
48.87% |
6.08% |
15.02% |
Conservative |
Conservative |
| Dorset South |
38.65% |
30.67% |
6.92% |
Conservative |
Conservative |
| Dorset West |
48.11% |
7.94% |
17.48% |
Conservative |
Conservative |
| Exeter |
27.80% |
38.02% |
7.25% |
Labour |
Labour |
| Filton & Bradley Stoke |
37.84% |
29.00% |
9.95% |
Conservative |
Conservative |
| Forest of Dean |
38.29% |
23.33% |
7.59% |
Conservative |
Conservative |
| Gloucester |
34.80% |
36.20% |
7.12% |
Conservative |
Labour |
| Kingswood |
35.49% |
36.63% |
6.28% |
Conservative |
Labour |
| Newton Abbot |
39.32% |
7.57% |
16.27% |
Conservative |
Conservative |
| Plymouth Moor View |
25.46% |
33.52% |
5.47% |
Labour |
Labour |
| Plymouth Sutton & Devonport |
26.70% |
29.13% |
8.15% |
Conservative |
Labour |
| Poole |
45.94% |
14.55% |
12.97% |
Conservative |
Conservative |
| Salisbury |
50.18% |
9.17% |
15.97% |
Conservative |
Conservative |
| Somerset North |
51.48% |
13.73% |
15.83% |
Conservative |
Conservative |
| Somerset North East |
36.12% |
32.74% |
8.30% |
Conservative |
Conservative |
| Somerton & Frome |
52.19% |
6.11% |
23.64% |
Liberal Democrat |
Conservative |
| St Austell & Newquay |
43.91% |
9.30% |
19.93% |
Liberal Democrat |
Conservative |
| St Ives |
33.63% |
8.32% |
15.65% |
Liberal Democrat |
Conservative |
| Stroud |
32.87% |
36.70% |
5.28% |
Conservative |
Labour |
| Swindon North |
38.44% |
31.10% |
6.31% |
Conservative |
Conservative |
| Swindon South |
34.61% |
33.53% |
6.20% |
Conservative |
Conservative |
| Taunton Deane |
48.99% |
7.00% |
24.18% |
Liberal Democrat |
Conservative |
| Tewkesbury |
45.69% |
13.25% |
14.59% |
Conservative |
Conservative |
| Thornbury & Yate |
43.81% |
9.78% |
25.99% |
Liberal Democrat |
Conservative |
| Tiverton & Honiton |
44.31% |
9.30% |
12.46% |
Conservative |
Conservative |
| Torbay |
38.72% |
7.76% |
19.95% |
Liberal Democrat |
Conservative |
| Totnes |
38.47% |
7.33% |
12.66% |
Conservative |
Conservative |
| Truro & Falmouth |
39.89% |
10.88% |
16.57% |
Conservative |
Conservative |
| Wells |
44.66% |
9.32% |
19.59% |
Liberal Democrat |
Conservative |
| Weston-Super-Mare |
49.23% |
14.37% |
18.49% |
Conservative |
Conservative |
| Wiltshire North |
49.97% |
7.61% |
14.89% |
Conservative |
Conservative |
| Wiltshire South West |
49.37% |
12.93% |
12.38% |
Conservative |
Conservative |
| Yeovil |
39.02% |
7.33% |
28.04% |
Liberal Democrat |
Conservative |
Eastern seat change summary:
| Party |
Seats Lost |
Seats Held |
Seats Won |
Total Seats |
| Conservative |
4 |
47 |
2 |
49 |
| Green |
0 |
0 |
2 |
2 |
| Labour |
0 |
2 |
4 |
6 |
| Liberal Democrat |
4 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
| UKIP |
0 |
1 |
0 |
1 |
Eastern vote share multiplying factors:
| Party |
2010 % |
Predicted % |
Multiplier |
| Conservative |
39.60% |
36.74% |
0.93x |
| Green |
1.00% |
7.02% |
7.02x |
| Labour |
28.10% |
30.79% |
1.10x |
| Liberal Democrat |
24.20% |
9.53% |
0.39x |
| Speaker |
39.60% |
36.74% |
0.93x |
| UKIP |
3.50% |
14.32% |
4.09x |
Predicted UK GE 2015 Constituency results in Eastern:
| Constituency |
Conservative |
Green |
Labour |
Liberal Democrat |
UKIP |
2010 Result |
2015 Prediction |
| Basildon & Billericay |
48.55% |
0.00% |
25.07% |
6.14% |
15.54% |
Conservative |
Conservative |
| Basildon South & Thurrock East |
36.99% |
0.00% |
30.85% |
4.78% |
21.94% |
Conservative |
Conservative |
| Bedford |
35.48% |
6.01% |
38.68% |
7.69% |
10.13% |
Conservative |
Labour |
| Bedfordshire Mid |
45.51% |
9.23% |
15.13% |
9.16% |
19.69% |
Conservative |
Conservative |
| Bedfordshire North East |
53.24% |
0.00% |
18.17% |
8.78% |
17.38% |
Conservative |
Conservative |
| Bedfordshire South West |
49.46% |
0.00% |
21.68% |
7.96% |
17.43% |
Conservative |
Conservative |
| Braintree |
43.90% |
9.21% |
19.58% |
6.65% |
18.52% |
Conservative |
Conservative |
| Brentwood & Ongar |
51.67% |
7.93% |
10.58% |
9.04% |
16.12% |
Conservative |
Conservative |
| Broadland |
42.38% |
9.91% |
14.99% |
12.60% |
18.30% |
Conservative |
Conservative |
| Broxbourne |
53.29% |
0.00% |
18.85% |
5.14% |
16.55% |
Conservative |
Conservative |
| Bury St Edmunds |
35.55% |
24.30% |
14.72% |
8.39% |
16.88% |
Conservative |
Conservative |
| Cambridge |
18.26% |
40.96% |
20.47% |
11.85% |
7.50% |
Liberal Democrat |
Green |
| Cambridgeshire North East |
46.64% |
0.00% |
19.02% |
7.69% |
21.37% |
Conservative |
Conservative |
| Cambridgeshire North West |
42.38% |
0.00% |
16.80% |
7.79% |
30.66% |
Conservative |
Conservative |
| Cambridgeshire South |
45.12% |
12.67% |
11.47% |
13.79% |
13.32% |
Conservative |
Conservative |
| Cambridgeshire South East |
47.27% |
9.91% |
8.85% |
15.75% |
16.13% |
Conservative |
Conservative |
| Castle Point |
43.96% |
0.00% |
17.33% |
3.99% |
0.00% |
Conservative |
Conservative |
| Chelmsford |
47.84% |
6.83% |
13.41% |
16.19% |
12.78% |
Conservative |
Conservative |
| Clacton |
7.75% |
4.63% |
4.16% |
0.18% |
82.90% |
UKIP |
UKIP |
| Colchester |
34.60% |
11.98% |
15.31% |
21.45% |
13.58% |
Liberal Democrat |
Conservative |
| Epping Forest |
47.36% |
9.39% |
14.77% |
8.01% |
15.38% |
Conservative |
Conservative |
| Great Yarmouth |
35.52% |
6.02% |
32.30% |
5.02% |
17.43% |
Conservative |
Conservative |
| Harlow |
40.19% |
0.00% |
35.60% |
5.19% |
14.32% |
Conservative |
Conservative |
| Harwich & Essex North |
38.90% |
11.63% |
19.53% |
8.30% |
18.85% |
Conservative |
Conservative |
| Hemel Hempstead |
49.87% |
0.00% |
24.53% |
9.69% |
11.16% |
Conservative |
Conservative |
| Hertford & Stortford |
54.38% |
0.00% |
16.42% |
11.13% |
13.81% |
Conservative |
Conservative |
| Hertfordshire North East |
46.29% |
11.35% |
16.79% |
8.59% |
15.69% |
Conservative |
Conservative |
| Hertfordshire South West |
56.72% |
0.00% |
14.21% |
12.40% |
11.79% |
Conservative |
Conservative |
| Hertsmere |
48.67% |
8.40% |
19.26% |
6.41% |
13.88% |
Conservative |
Conservative |
| Hitchin & Harpenden |
50.64% |
10.35% |
14.84% |
10.50% |
12.44% |
Conservative |
Conservative |
| Huntingdon |
42.61% |
7.92% |
11.35% |
10.71% |
23.09% |
Conservative |
Conservative |
| Ipswich |
33.29% |
10.62% |
34.87% |
6.58% |
10.91% |
Conservative |
Labour |
| Luton North |
25.71% |
6.97% |
47.08% |
3.82% |
12.98% |
Labour |
Labour |
| Luton South |
27.04% |
6.04% |
37.94% |
8.86% |
9.38% |
Labour |
Labour |
| Maldon |
54.55% |
0.00% |
13.65% |
7.48% |
20.53% |
Conservative |
Conservative |
| Norfolk Mid |
38.33% |
16.81% |
15.96% |
7.29% |
18.84% |
Conservative |
Conservative |
| Norfolk North |
33.70% |
8.13% |
7.24% |
24.75% |
25.01% |
Liberal Democrat |
Conservative |
| Norfolk North West |
47.70% |
10.37% |
13.81% |
8.68% |
14.95% |
Conservative |
Conservative |
| Norfolk South |
43.74% |
12.19% |
13.81% |
11.08% |
16.56% |
Conservative |
Conservative |
| Norfolk South West |
38.83% |
10.26% |
17.61% |
7.36% |
22.07% |
Conservative |
Conservative |
| Norwich North |
31.06% |
16.93% |
28.41% |
5.94% |
14.89% |
Conservative |
Conservative |
| Norwich South |
11.72% |
57.71% |
17.34% |
6.37% |
5.43% |
Liberal Democrat |
Green |
| Peterborough |
32.08% |
7.00% |
27.74% |
6.62% |
23.46% |
Conservative |
Conservative |
| Rayleigh & Wickford |
52.58% |
0.00% |
15.55% |
5.84% |
16.95% |
Conservative |
Conservative |
| Rochford & Southend East |
37.47% |
10.27% |
19.19% |
6.59% |
20.38% |
Conservative |
Conservative |
| Saffron Walden |
50.45% |
9.30% |
10.45% |
10.59% |
16.44% |
Conservative |
Conservative |
| Southend West |
41.74% |
10.12% |
14.36% |
11.30% |
15.71% |
Conservative |
Conservative |
| St Albans |
38.54% |
10.26% |
19.64% |
14.61% |
16.01% |
Conservative |
Conservative |
| Stevenage |
36.53% |
0.00% |
34.80% |
6.23% |
17.46% |
Conservative |
Conservative |
| Suffolk Central & Ipswich North |
41.40% |
16.76% |
15.57% |
8.64% |
15.89% |
Conservative |
Conservative |
| Suffolk Coastal |
38.79% |
12.70% |
15.85% |
10.56% |
21.20% |
Conservative |
Conservative |
| Suffolk South |
43.36% |
0.00% |
15.37% |
11.89% |
28.33% |
Conservative |
Conservative |
| Suffolk West |
44.86% |
0.00% |
15.45% |
8.82% |
25.11% |
Conservative |
Conservative |
| Thurrock |
28.82% |
0.00% |
33.86% |
3.55% |
25.55% |
Conservative |
Labour |
| Watford |
33.12% |
11.49% |
29.92% |
13.02% |
9.08% |
Conservative |
Conservative |
| Waveney |
30.13% |
12.93% |
34.25% |
4.23% |
17.34% |
Conservative |
Labour |
| Welwyn Hatfield |
48.29% |
10.43% |
21.41% |
5.89% |
12.55% |
Conservative |
Conservative |
| Witham |
38.50% |
16.90% |
16.10% |
6.18% |
21.25% |
Conservative |
Conservative |
North East seat change summary:
| Party |
Seats Lost |
Seats Held |
Seats Won |
Total Seats |
| Conservative |
1 |
1 |
1 |
2 |
| Labour |
1 |
24 |
2 |
26 |
| Liberal Democrat |
2 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
| UKIP |
0 |
0 |
1 |
1 |
North East vote share multiplying factors:
| Party |
2010 % |
Predicted % |
Multiplier |
| Conservative |
39.60% |
32.98% |
0.83x |
| Green |
1.00% |
6.53% |
6.53x |
| Labour |
28.10% |
36.47% |
1.30x |
| Liberal Democrat |
24.20% |
8.31% |
0.34x |
| UKIP |
3.50% |
13.85% |
3.96x |
Predicted UK GE 2015 Constituency results in North East:
| Constituency |
Conservative |
Labour |
Liberal Democrat |
UKIP |
2010 Result |
2015 Prediction |
| Berwick-upon-Tweed |
38.84% |
21.70% |
19.05% |
16.24% |
Liberal Democrat |
Conservative |
| Bishop Auckland |
21.71% |
50.18% |
7.61% |
10.68% |
Labour |
Labour |
| Blaydon |
14.27% |
69.28% |
10.83% |
0.00% |
Labour |
Labour |
| Blyth Valley |
13.12% |
54.70% |
8.84% |
16.18% |
Labour |
Labour |
| Darlington |
26.29% |
51.25% |
8.06% |
11.04% |
Labour |
Labour |
| Durham North |
16.24% |
60.75% |
6.69% |
12.02% |
Labour |
Labour |
| Durham North West |
16.36% |
53.91% |
8.40% |
11.16% |
Labour |
Labour |
| Durham, City of |
12.01% |
62.41% |
14.03% |
7.94% |
Labour |
Labour |
| Easington |
9.59% |
64.19% |
4.62% |
15.51% |
Labour |
Labour |
| Gateshead |
10.89% |
61.49% |
6.41% |
9.98% |
Labour |
Labour |
| Hartlepool |
19.81% |
46.69% |
4.96% |
23.46% |
Labour |
Labour |
| Hexham |
45.28% |
30.99% |
12.91% |
0.00% |
Conservative |
Conservative |
| Houghton & Sunderland South |
16.07% |
58.82% |
4.30% |
9.57% |
Labour |
Labour |
| Jarrow |
16.95% |
69.04% |
6.25% |
0.00% |
Labour |
Labour |
| Middlesbrough |
3.61% |
54.02% |
2.34% |
32.12% |
Labour |
Labour |
| Middlesbrough South & Cleveland East |
27.42% |
47.08% |
5.04% |
14.88% |
Labour |
Labour |
| Newcastle upon Tyne Central |
14.45% |
53.46% |
7.41% |
7.83% |
Labour |
Labour |
| Newcastle upon Tyne East |
13.49% |
59.03% |
11.53% |
0.00% |
Labour |
Labour |
| Newcastle upon Tyne North |
14.95% |
52.48% |
11.24% |
11.45% |
Labour |
Labour |
| Redcar |
12.48% |
46.15% |
16.83% |
19.19% |
Liberal Democrat |
Labour |
| Sedgefield |
18.02% |
53.95% |
6.32% |
13.41% |
Labour |
Labour |
| South Shields |
5.23% |
35.68% |
0.26% |
52.12% |
Labour |
UKIP |
| Stockton North |
19.49% |
50.15% |
4.97% |
14.06% |
Labour |
Labour |
| Stockton South |
30.98% |
47.45% |
4.95% |
11.05% |
Conservative |
Labour |
| Sunderland Central |
23.53% |
55.98% |
5.46% |
9.58% |
Labour |
Labour |
| Tynemouth |
26.11% |
53.57% |
4.66% |
6.16% |
Labour |
Labour |
| Tyneside North |
14.34% |
61.69% |
7.37% |
10.45% |
Labour |
Labour |
| Wansbeck |
13.23% |
53.89% |
8.54% |
9.12% |
Labour |
Labour |
| Washington & Sunderland West |
16.19% |
60.66% |
5.22% |
11.94% |
Labour |
Labour |
South East seat change summary:
| Party |
Seats Lost |
Seats Held |
Seats Won |
Total Seats |
| Conservative |
3 |
70 |
3 |
73 |
| Green |
0 |
1 |
2 |
3 |
| Labour |
0 |
4 |
1 |
5 |
| Liberal Democrat |
4 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
| Speaker |
1 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
| UKIP |
0 |
1 |
2 |
3 |
South East vote share multiplying factors:
| Party |
2010 % |
Predicted % |
Multiplier |
| Conservative |
39.60% |
36.74% |
0.93x |
| Green |
1.00% |
7.02% |
7.02x |
| Labour |
28.10% |
30.79% |
1.10x |
| Liberal Democrat |
24.20% |
9.53% |
0.39x |
| Speaker |
39.60% |
36.74% |
0.93x |
| UKIP |
3.50% |
14.32% |
4.09x |
Predicted UK GE 2015 Constituency results in South East:
| Constituency |
Conservative |
Green |
Labour |
Liberal Democrat |
Speaker |
UKIP |
2010 Result |
2015 Prediction |
| Aldershot |
47.71% |
0.00% |
14.59% |
14.92% |
0.00% |
20.26% |
Conservative |
Conservative |
| Arundel & South Downs |
55.09% |
0.00% |
9.73% |
11.31% |
0.00% |
23.84% |
Conservative |
Conservative |
| Ashford |
46.08% |
11.83% |
16.77% |
8.24% |
0.00% |
17.06% |
Conservative |
Conservative |
| Aylesbury |
47.80% |
0.00% |
13.63% |
11.06% |
0.00% |
27.47% |
Conservative |
Conservative |
| Banbury |
43.99% |
10.74% |
18.85% |
7.21% |
0.00% |
18.33% |
Conservative |
Conservative |
| Basingstoke |
48.73% |
0.00% |
23.23% |
10.03% |
0.00% |
17.44% |
Conservative |
Conservative |
| Beaconsfield |
51.96% |
9.42% |
11.75% |
7.07% |
0.00% |
18.57% |
Conservative |
Conservative |
| Bexhill & Battle |
59.38% |
0.00% |
16.26% |
13.67% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
Conservative |
Conservative |
| Bognor Regis & Littlehampton |
46.06% |
0.00% |
14.86% |
8.95% |
0.00% |
25.60% |
Conservative |
Conservative |
| Bracknell |
45.21% |
10.27% |
17.11% |
8.16% |
0.00% |
16.76% |
Conservative |
Conservative |
| Brighton Kemptown |
26.54% |
28.84% |
28.78% |
5.34% |
0.00% |
9.99% |
Conservative |
Green |
| Brighton Pavilion |
7.65% |
76.59% |
11.04% |
1.89% |
0.00% |
2.61% |
Green |
Green |
| Buckingham |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
29.14% |
47.24% |
Speaker |
UKIP |
| Canterbury |
39.69% |
15.48% |
16.88% |
12.23% |
0.00% |
15.14% |
Conservative |
Conservative |
| Chatham & Aylesford |
40.15% |
5.94% |
33.20% |
4.91% |
0.00% |
11.50% |
Conservative |
Conservative |
| Chesham & Amersham |
55.71% |
10.21% |
6.12% |
11.17% |
0.00% |
16.53% |
Conservative |
Conservative |
| Chichester |
50.46% |
0.00% |
11.26% |
10.60% |
0.00% |
27.43% |
Conservative |
Conservative |
| Crawley |
38.43% |
8.18% |
32.74% |
5.25% |
0.00% |
11.02% |
Conservative |
Conservative |
| Dartford |
44.40% |
0.00% |
29.63% |
5.68% |
0.00% |
14.77% |
Conservative |
Conservative |
| Dover |
40.20% |
0.00% |
36.19% |
6.13% |
0.00% |
13.97% |
Conservative |
Conservative |
| Eastbourne |
49.05% |
0.00% |
6.82% |
24.19% |
0.00% |
13.30% |
Liberal Democrat |
Conservative |
| Eastleigh |
14.21% |
0.00% |
6.50% |
7.62% |
0.00% |
68.69% |
Liberal Democrat |
UKIP |
| Epsom & Ewell |
54.51% |
0.00% |
13.64% |
11.04% |
0.00% |
19.85% |
Conservative |
Conservative |
| Esher & Walton |
59.24% |
0.00% |
12.69% |
10.60% |
0.00% |
14.50% |
Conservative |
Conservative |
| Fareham |
48.90% |
9.74% |
14.85% |
8.95% |
0.00% |
16.05% |
Conservative |
Conservative |
| Faversham & Kent Mid |
47.82% |
12.26% |
16.67% |
7.08% |
0.00% |
13.84% |
Conservative |
Conservative |
| Folkestone & Hythe |
45.36% |
8.37% |
11.74% |
11.79% |
0.00% |
18.69% |
Conservative |
Conservative |
| Gillingham & Rainham |
41.44% |
5.16% |
29.30% |
6.90% |
0.00% |
12.81% |
Conservative |
Conservative |
| Gosport |
46.68% |
8.33% |
18.03% |
8.06% |
0.00% |
12.67% |
Conservative |
Conservative |
| Gravesham |
39.09% |
8.70% |
27.45% |
4.55% |
0.00% |
17.01% |
Conservative |
Conservative |
| Guildford |
62.60% |
0.00% |
7.02% |
19.59% |
0.00% |
9.52% |
Conservative |
Conservative |
| Hampshire East |
60.11% |
0.00% |
9.85% |
13.70% |
0.00% |
13.44% |
Conservative |
Conservative |
| Hampshire North East |
59.42% |
0.00% |
11.32% |
10.60% |
0.00% |
18.08% |
Conservative |
Conservative |
| Hampshire North West |
54.45% |
0.00% |
14.45% |
9.29% |
0.00% |
21.26% |
Conservative |
Conservative |
| Hastings & Rye |
37.99% |
0.00% |
40.51% |
6.16% |
0.00% |
11.44% |
Conservative |
Labour |
| Havant |
46.07% |
0.00% |
18.87% |
8.96% |
0.00% |
23.65% |
Conservative |
Conservative |
| Henley |
48.36% |
16.16% |
11.09% |
9.20% |
0.00% |
12.90% |
Conservative |
Conservative |
| Horsham |
49.01% |
7.18% |
8.24% |
12.71% |
0.00% |
20.84% |
Conservative |
Conservative |
| Hove |
27.04% |
28.71% |
28.68% |
7.05% |
0.00% |
7.86% |
Conservative |
Green |
| Isle of Wight |
44.35% |
9.52% |
13.04% |
12.79% |
0.00% |
14.52% |
Conservative |
Conservative |
| Lewes |
39.43% |
11.81% |
6.35% |
23.69% |
0.00% |
16.33% |
Liberal Democrat |
Conservative |
| Maidenhead |
59.61% |
6.80% |
8.37% |
12.02% |
0.00% |
10.23% |
Conservative |
Conservative |
| Maidstone & The Weald |
46.96% |
9.90% |
11.26% |
14.94% |
0.00% |
14.44% |
Conservative |
Conservative |
| Meon Valley |
60.29% |
0.00% |
8.07% |
14.82% |
0.00% |
13.75% |
Conservative |
Conservative |
| Milton Keynes North |
38.35% |
9.08% |
27.96% |
8.27% |
0.00% |
12.80% |
Conservative |
Conservative |
| Milton Keynes South |
35.08% |
8.92% |
32.08% |
6.33% |
0.00% |
13.93% |
Conservative |
Conservative |
| Mole Valley |
50.65% |
10.97% |
7.28% |
10.74% |
0.00% |
19.67% |
Conservative |
Conservative |
| New Forest East |
45.62% |
13.36% |
10.02% |
11.08% |
0.00% |
19.16% |
Conservative |
Conservative |
| New Forest West |
47.49% |
13.59% |
9.35% |
7.98% |
0.00% |
20.83% |
Conservative |
Conservative |
| Newbury |
59.27% |
6.64% |
5.30% |
15.84% |
0.00% |
11.66% |
Conservative |
Conservative |
| Oxford East |
16.67% |
16.05% |
44.41% |
12.63% |
0.00% |
9.08% |
Labour |
Labour |
| Oxford West & Abingdon |
41.68% |
15.62% |
12.36% |
17.56% |
0.00% |
11.67% |
Conservative |
Conservative |
| Portsmouth North |
38.28% |
6.83% |
28.35% |
7.38% |
0.00% |
15.66% |
Conservative |
Conservative |
| Portsmouth South |
34.57% |
13.65% |
16.79% |
20.24% |
0.00% |
9.73% |
Liberal Democrat |
Conservative |
| Reading East |
38.21% |
14.53% |
27.01% |
10.42% |
0.00% |
8.61% |
Conservative |
Conservative |
| Reading West |
37.87% |
8.12% |
31.64% |
7.48% |
0.00% |
12.27% |
Conservative |
Conservative |
| Reigate |
45.75% |
14.09% |
11.48% |
9.53% |
0.00% |
15.79% |
Conservative |
Conservative |
| Rochester & Strood |
12.71% |
11.66% |
7.22% |
0.13% |
0.00% |
67.79% |
UKIP |
UKIP |
| Romsey & Southampton North |
56.89% |
0.00% |
8.60% |
20.02% |
0.00% |
13.28% |
Conservative |
Conservative |
| Runnymede & Weybridge |
45.47% |
8.89% |
12.86% |
7.46% |
0.00% |
23.44% |
Conservative |
Conservative |
| Sevenoaks |
54.70% |
0.00% |
15.05% |
8.73% |
0.00% |
15.31% |
Conservative |
Conservative |
| Sittingbourne & Sheppey |
43.60% |
0.00% |
25.27% |
6.04% |
0.00% |
20.65% |
Conservative |
Conservative |
| Slough |
28.68% |
7.19% |
45.32% |
5.17% |
0.00% |
11.73% |
Labour |
Labour |
| Southampton Itchen |
30.36% |
8.54% |
36.30% |
7.39% |
0.00% |
16.00% |
Labour |
Labour |
| Southampton Test |
27.10% |
12.38% |
37.31% |
7.78% |
0.00% |
14.14% |
Labour |
Labour |
| Spelthorne |
39.76% |
0.00% |
16.43% |
9.28% |
0.00% |
31.58% |
Conservative |
Conservative |
| Surrey East |
50.90% |
0.00% |
9.55% |
9.85% |
0.00% |
27.30% |
Conservative |
Conservative |
| Surrey Heath |
52.58% |
0.00% |
11.01% |
10.00% |
0.00% |
25.41% |
Conservative |
Conservative |
| Surrey South West |
57.76% |
8.97% |
6.94% |
12.61% |
0.00% |
11.26% |
Conservative |
Conservative |
| Sussex Mid |
52.24% |
9.00% |
8.03% |
16.38% |
0.00% |
11.57% |
Conservative |
Conservative |
| Thanet North |
45.27% |
0.00% |
21.78% |
7.07% |
0.00% |
24.66% |
Conservative |
Conservative |
| Thanet South |
40.98% |
0.00% |
31.68% |
5.47% |
0.00% |
20.74% |
Conservative |
Conservative |
| Tonbridge & Malling |
51.19% |
9.95% |
13.17% |
8.44% |
0.00% |
14.52% |
Conservative |
Conservative |
| Tunbridge Wells |
49.07% |
11.99% |
11.16% |
9.36% |
0.00% |
15.71% |
Conservative |
Conservative |
| Wantage |
45.43% |
12.25% |
14.39% |
10.36% |
0.00% |
16.56% |
Conservative |
Conservative |
| Wealden |
45.08% |
15.17% |
9.02% |
8.56% |
0.00% |
21.23% |
Conservative |
Conservative |
| Winchester |
57.50% |
0.00% |
7.63% |
21.67% |
0.00% |
10.64% |
Conservative |
Conservative |
| Windsor |
55.40% |
8.72% |
10.65% |
8.67% |
0.00% |
13.06% |
Conservative |
Conservative |
| Witney |
44.78% |
23.78% |
11.69% |
6.28% |
0.00% |
11.63% |
Conservative |
Conservative |
| Woking |
53.42% |
0.00% |
10.09% |
16.86% |
0.00% |
17.72% |
Conservative |
Conservative |
| Wokingham |
50.41% |
7.52% |
11.42% |
11.36% |
0.00% |
12.87% |
Conservative |
Conservative |
| Worthing East & Shoreham |
38.43% |
13.95% |
15.65% |
8.59% |
0.00% |
21.56% |
Conservative |
Conservative |
| Worthing West |
42.70% |
12.66% |
11.51% |
9.76% |
0.00% |
21.67% |
Conservative |
Conservative |
| Wycombe |
47.18% |
0.00% |
19.81% |
11.85% |
0.00% |
18.86% |
Conservative |
Conservative |
North West seat change summary:
| Party |
Seats Lost |
Seats Held |
Seats Won |
Total Seats |
| Conservative |
13 |
9 |
4 |
13 |
| Labour |
1 |
46 |
15 |
61 |
| Liberal Democrat |
6 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
| UKIP |
0 |
0 |
1 |
1 |
North West vote share multiplying factors:
| Party |
2010 % |
Predicted % |
Multiplier |
| Conservative |
39.60% |
32.98% |
0.83x |
| Green |
1.00% |
6.53% |
6.53x |
| Labour |
28.10% |
36.47% |
1.30x |
| Liberal Democrat |
24.20% |
8.31% |
0.34x |
| UKIP |
3.50% |
13.85% |
3.96x |
Predicted UK GE 2015 Constituency results in North West:
| Constituency |
Conservative |
Labour |
Liberal Democrat |
UKIP |
2010 Result |
2015 Prediction |
| Altrincham & Sale West |
44.73% |
31.93% |
9.59% |
13.73% |
Conservative |
Conservative |
| Ashton Under Lyne |
18.15% |
55.33% |
4.48% |
15.28% |
Labour |
Labour |
| Barrow & Furness |
26.52% |
54.76% |
3.02% |
6.61% |
Labour |
Labour |
| Birkenhead |
15.24% |
78.45% |
6.16% |
0.00% |
Labour |
Labour |
| Blackburn |
20.51% |
58.45% |
4.92% |
7.71% |
Labour |
Labour |
| Blackley & Broughton |
13.65% |
63.06% |
4.37% |
9.26% |
Labour |
Labour |
| Blackpool North & Cleveleys |
32.41% |
44.10% |
4.25% |
15.05% |
Conservative |
Labour |
| Blackpool South |
27.52% |
49.20% |
4.57% |
14.03% |
Labour |
Labour |
| Bolton North East |
27.22% |
53.39% |
4.00% |
14.86% |
Labour |
Labour |
| Bolton South East |
17.81% |
51.36% |
4.55% |
13.03% |
Labour |
Labour |
| Bolton West |
28.48% |
44.61% |
5.26% |
14.10% |
Labour |
Labour |
| Bootle |
5.86% |
68.14% |
4.10% |
19.04% |
Labour |
Labour |
| Burnley |
15.38% |
45.22% |
13.62% |
9.76% |
Liberal Democrat |
Labour |
| Bury North |
33.05% |
45.11% |
5.76% |
11.14% |
Conservative |
Labour |
| Bury South |
26.26% |
49.23% |
5.87% |
7.82% |
Labour |
Labour |
| Carlisle |
29.91% |
44.22% |
4.88% |
8.30% |
Conservative |
Labour |
| Cheadle |
46.36% |
16.58% |
22.02% |
14.68% |
Liberal Democrat |
Conservative |
| Chester, City of |
32.05% |
43.16% |
6.21% |
9.82% |
Conservative |
Labour |
| Chorley |
28.88% |
51.17% |
4.37% |
14.65% |
Labour |
Labour |
| Congleton |
42.68% |
25.02% |
12.24% |
18.72% |
Conservative |
Conservative |
| Copeland |
27.31% |
52.84% |
3.10% |
8.13% |
Labour |
Labour |
| Crewe & Nantwich |
37.75% |
43.65% |
5.08% |
10.83% |
Conservative |
Labour |
| Denton & Reddish |
17.86% |
57.08% |
5.29% |
18.68% |
Labour |
Labour |
| Eddisbury |
44.80% |
29.13% |
8.04% |
17.51% |
Conservative |
Conservative |
| Ellesmere Port & Neston |
26.65% |
53.20% |
4.74% |
13.29% |
Labour |
Labour |
| Fylde |
41.57% |
24.48% |
7.24% |
16.83% |
Conservative |
Conservative |
| Garston & Halewood |
11.88% |
68.34% |
6.11% |
12.58% |
Labour |
Labour |
| Halton |
13.68% |
60.94% |
3.86% |
9.57% |
Labour |
Labour |
| Hazel Grove |
34.19% |
19.76% |
20.45% |
24.72% |
Liberal Democrat |
Conservative |
| Heywood & Middleton |
4.30% |
22.28% |
0.74% |
64.31% |
Labour |
UKIP |
| Hyndburn |
24.33% |
46.03% |
3.49% |
11.85% |
Labour |
Labour |
| Knowsley |
6.26% |
77.17% |
3.84% |
8.51% |
Labour |
Labour |
| Lancashire West |
26.08% |
50.70% |
4.03% |
12.53% |
Labour |
Labour |
| Lancaster & Fleetwood |
24.18% |
36.87% |
5.28% |
7.61% |
Conservative |
Labour |
| Leigh |
15.86% |
56.71% |
5.67% |
12.46% |
Labour |
Labour |
| Liverpool Riverside |
7.21% |
60.92% |
6.18% |
5.44% |
Labour |
Labour |
| Liverpool Walton |
4.54% |
77.97% |
4.08% |
8.63% |
Labour |
Labour |
| Liverpool Wavertree |
5.72% |
63.38% |
10.79% |
8.54% |
Labour |
Labour |
| Liverpool West Derby |
6.45% |
69.73% |
3.60% |
10.12% |
Labour |
Labour |
| Macclesfield |
38.54% |
25.97% |
7.80% |
11.04% |
Conservative |
Conservative |
| Makerfield |
15.44% |
60.65% |
5.49% |
0.00% |
Labour |
Labour |
| Manchester Central |
2.54% |
60.38% |
2.18% |
11.98% |
Labour |
Labour |
| Manchester Gorton |
8.52% |
60.37% |
10.39% |
0.00% |
Labour |
Labour |
| Manchester Withington |
9.63% |
54.64% |
15.95% |
6.38% |
Liberal Democrat |
Labour |
| Morecambe & Lunesdale |
29.52% |
43.79% |
3.90% |
14.33% |
Conservative |
Labour |
| Oldham East & Saddleworth |
9.29% |
47.56% |
9.54% |
19.99% |
Labour |
Labour |
| Oldham West & Royton |
18.31% |
54.81% |
6.09% |
11.88% |
Labour |
Labour |
| Pendle |
32.34% |
40.08% |
6.92% |
12.95% |
Conservative |
Labour |
| Penrith & The Border |
52.01% |
19.64% |
11.42% |
12.92% |
Conservative |
Conservative |
| Preston |
16.53% |
57.18% |
7.66% |
16.26% |
Labour |
Labour |
| Ribble Valley |
39.76% |
27.17% |
6.69% |
25.11% |
Conservative |
Conservative |
| Rochdale |
15.20% |
47.64% |
11.93% |
17.38% |
Labour |
Labour |
| Rossendale & Darwen |
34.16% |
41.08% |
6.10% |
13.32% |
Conservative |
Labour |
| Salford & Eccles |
17.01% |
51.97% |
9.02% |
10.31% |
Labour |
Labour |
| Sefton Central |
26.34% |
50.69% |
6.37% |
15.63% |
Labour |
Labour |
| South Ribble |
35.95% |
42.72% |
4.60% |
13.83% |
Conservative |
Labour |
| Southport |
37.02% |
15.14% |
21.11% |
25.24% |
Liberal Democrat |
Conservative |
| St Helens North |
16.38% |
59.16% |
6.10% |
16.43% |
Labour |
Labour |
| St Helens South & Whiston |
13.85% |
64.07% |
7.12% |
9.83% |
Labour |
Labour |
| Stalybridge & Hyde |
23.76% |
44.59% |
5.07% |
11.26% |
Labour |
Labour |
| Stockport |
19.27% |
50.58% |
7.83% |
7.96% |
Labour |
Labour |
| Stretford & Urmston |
19.76% |
52.13% |
4.80% |
10.98% |
Labour |
Labour |
| Tatton |
55.13% |
27.16% |
9.38% |
0.00% |
Conservative |
Conservative |
| Wallasey |
23.51% |
60.47% |
4.22% |
10.29% |
Labour |
Labour |
| Warrington North |
26.17% |
61.44% |
7.42% |
0.00% |
Labour |
Labour |
| Warrington South |
29.84% |
42.82% |
9.45% |
11.72% |
Conservative |
Labour |
| Weaver Vale |
30.69% |
45.03% |
6.11% |
8.75% |
Conservative |
Labour |
| Westmorland & Lonsdale |
49.41% |
4.78% |
33.76% |
10.09% |
Liberal Democrat |
Conservative |
| Wigan |
17.39% |
53.14% |
4.46% |
19.04% |
Labour |
Labour |
| Wirral South |
31.10% |
50.09% |
5.38% |
11.95% |
Labour |
Labour |
| Wirral West |
35.04% |
46.65% |
5.72% |
8.94% |
Conservative |
Labour |
| Workington |
26.30% |
55.09% |
4.34% |
8.23% |
Labour |
Labour |
| Worsley & Eccles South |
24.07% |
49.51% |
5.04% |
17.18% |
Labour |
Labour |
| Wyre & Preston North |
44.10% |
27.95% |
7.46% |
19.22% |
Conservative |
Conservative |
| Wythenshawe & Sale East |
6.67% |
39.65% |
0.93% |
39.20% |
Labour |
Labour |
Yorkshire and the Humber seat change summary:
| Party |
Seats Lost |
Seats Held |
Seats Won |
Total Seats |
| Conservative |
5 |
14 |
1 |
15 |
| Labour |
1 |
30 |
7 |
37 |
| Liberal Democrat |
3 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
| Respect |
0 |
1 |
0 |
1 |
| UKIP |
0 |
0 |
1 |
1 |
Yorkshire and the Humber vote share multiplying factors:
| Party |
2010 % |
Predicted % |
Multiplier |
| Conservative |
39.60% |
34.96% |
0.88x |
| Green |
1.00% |
6.49% |
6.49x |
| Labour |
28.10% |
32.63% |
1.16x |
| Liberal Democrat |
24.20% |
8.75% |
0.36x |
| UKIP |
3.50% |
15.05% |
4.30x |
Predicted UK GE 2015 Constituency results in Yorkshire and the Humber:
| Constituency |
Conservative |
Labour |
Liberal Democrat |
Respect |
UKIP |
2010 Result |
2015 Prediction |
| Barnsley Central |
4.98% |
48.22% |
1.03% |
0.00% |
35.82% |
Labour |
Labour |
| Barnsley East |
13.35% |
50.11% |
6.02% |
0.00% |
17.79% |
Labour |
Labour |
| Batley & Spen |
29.84% |
49.33% |
5.77% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
Labour |
Labour |
| Beverley & Holderness |
40.77% |
24.02% |
8.05% |
0.00% |
14.62% |
Conservative |
Conservative |
| Bradford East |
29.31% |
47.13% |
15.08% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
Liberal Democrat |
Labour |
| Bradford South |
24.84% |
46.34% |
6.39% |
0.00% |
14.65% |
Labour |
Labour |
| Bradford West |
6.20% |
24.37% |
1.39% |
46.94% |
11.94% |
Respect |
Respect |
| Brigg & Goole |
38.03% |
36.94% |
5.08% |
0.00% |
16.46% |
Conservative |
Conservative |
| Calder Valley |
34.62% |
31.18% |
9.06% |
0.00% |
9.70% |
Conservative |
Conservative |
| Cleethorpes |
33.06% |
33.62% |
5.86% |
0.00% |
27.16% |
Conservative |
Labour |
| Colne Valley |
33.39% |
31.35% |
10.44% |
0.00% |
9.25% |
Conservative |
Conservative |
| Dewsbury |
31.12% |
37.64% |
6.17% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
Conservative |
Labour |
| Don Valley |
24.55% |
41.31% |
5.79% |
0.00% |
17.68% |
Labour |
Labour |
| Doncaster Central |
21.49% |
45.30% |
7.49% |
0.00% |
14.39% |
Labour |
Labour |
| Doncaster North |
16.82% |
49.78% |
4.87% |
0.00% |
16.87% |
Labour |
Labour |
| Elmet & Rothwell |
37.63% |
40.09% |
5.90% |
0.00% |
12.28% |
Conservative |
Labour |
| Great Grimsby |
24.80% |
34.94% |
7.46% |
0.00% |
24.53% |
Labour |
Labour |
| Halifax |
31.44% |
45.48% |
7.25% |
0.00% |
6.77% |
Labour |
Labour |
| Haltemprice & Howden |
50.47% |
20.69% |
10.88% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
Conservative |
Conservative |
| Harrogate & Knaresborough |
53.96% |
9.97% |
21.16% |
0.00% |
11.42% |
Conservative |
Conservative |
| Hemsworth |
22.10% |
55.92% |
4.81% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
Labour |
Labour |
| Huddersfield |
22.24% |
40.88% |
8.11% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
Labour |
Labour |
| Hull East |
12.33% |
46.90% |
6.94% |
0.00% |
29.10% |
Labour |
Labour |
| Hull North |
11.20% |
44.04% |
13.04% |
0.00% |
16.98% |
Labour |
Labour |
| Hull West & Hessle |
16.55% |
45.78% |
8.14% |
0.00% |
21.39% |
Labour |
Labour |
| Keighley |
36.20% |
40.62% |
5.23% |
0.00% |
12.96% |
Conservative |
Labour |
| Leeds Central |
19.09% |
61.41% |
8.08% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
Labour |
Labour |
| Leeds East |
21.50% |
61.50% |
6.65% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
Labour |
Labour |
| Leeds North East |
30.11% |
51.05% |
7.29% |
0.00% |
7.85% |
Labour |
Labour |
| Leeds North West |
28.69% |
29.84% |
21.01% |
0.00% |
7.26% |
Liberal Democrat |
Labour |
| Leeds West |
13.85% |
39.09% |
6.96% |
0.00% |
10.07% |
Labour |
Labour |
| Morley & Outwood |
30.51% |
42.70% |
5.93% |
0.00% |
12.97% |
Labour |
Labour |
| Normanton, Pontefract & Castleford |
22.65% |
58.72% |
6.22% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
Labour |
Labour |
| Penistone & Stocksbridge |
26.57% |
42.30% |
7.35% |
0.00% |
17.26% |
Labour |
Labour |
| Pudsey |
34.99% |
41.99% |
7.76% |
0.00% |
11.03% |
Conservative |
Labour |
| Richmond (Yorks) |
55.79% |
17.84% |
6.95% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
Conservative |
Conservative |
| Rother Valley |
22.45% |
42.58% |
5.62% |
0.00% |
21.52% |
Labour |
Labour |
| Rotherham |
2.69% |
30.48% |
0.43% |
4.68% |
52.64% |
Labour |
UKIP |
| Scarborough & Whitby |
36.36% |
29.41% |
7.83% |
0.00% |
12.46% |
Conservative |
Conservative |
| Scunthorpe |
25.48% |
40.59% |
5.85% |
0.00% |
17.31% |
Labour |
Labour |
| Selby & Ainsty |
44.32% |
30.33% |
6.52% |
0.00% |
13.81% |
Conservative |
Conservative |
| Sheffield Brightside & Hillsborough |
9.25% |
58.27% |
6.58% |
0.00% |
16.09% |
Labour |
Labour |
| Sheffield Central |
8.42% |
45.14% |
13.92% |
0.00% |
6.36% |
Labour |
Labour |
| Sheffield Hallam |
24.66% |
22.17% |
22.93% |
0.00% |
11.92% |
Liberal Democrat |
Conservative |
| Sheffield Heeley |
13.46% |
43.55% |
9.04% |
0.00% |
14.17% |
Labour |
Labour |
| Sheffield South East |
14.32% |
52.77% |
7.87% |
0.00% |
18.30% |
Labour |
Labour |
| Shipley |
41.40% |
31.90% |
6.99% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
Conservative |
Conservative |
| Skipton & Ripon |
51.07% |
13.34% |
13.40% |
0.00% |
17.15% |
Conservative |
Conservative |
| Thirsk & Malton |
44.77% |
15.09% |
8.08% |
0.00% |
27.06% |
Conservative |
Conservative |
| Wakefield |
30.30% |
43.92% |
5.68% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
Labour |
Labour |
| Wentworth & Dearne |
12.50% |
47.39% |
4.70% |
0.00% |
28.14% |
Labour |
Labour |
| York Central |
19.81% |
39.92% |
7.83% |
0.00% |
8.76% |
Labour |
Labour |
| York Outer |
45.88% |
23.99% |
15.77% |
0.00% |
10.73% |
Conservative |
Conservative |
| Yorkshire East |
39.01% |
21.94% |
7.12% |
0.00% |
16.73% |
Conservative |
Conservative |
Northern Ireland seat change summary:
| Party |
Seats Lost |
Seats Held |
Seats Won |
Total Seats |
| Alliance Party |
0 |
1 |
0 |
1 |
| DUP |
0 |
8 |
0 |
8 |
| SDLP |
0 |
3 |
0 |
3 |
| Sinn Fein |
1 |
4 |
0 |
4 |
| Sylvia Hermon |
0 |
1 |
0 |
1 |
| UUP |
0 |
0 |
1 |
1 |
Northern Ireland vote share multiplying factors:
| Party |
2010 % |
Predicted % |
Multiplier |
| Alliance |
6.00% |
7.80% |
1.30x |
| DUP |
25.00% |
24.92% |
1.00x |
| SDLP |
16.00% |
17.45% |
1.09x |
| Sinn Fein |
26.00% |
23.89% |
0.92x |
| UUP |
15.00% |
15.31% |
1.02x |
Predicted UK GE 2015 Constituency results in Northern Ireland:
| Constituency |
Alliance Party |
DUP |
SDLP |
Sinn Fein |
Sylvia Hermon |
UUP |
2010 Result |
2015 Prediction |
| Antrim East |
11.08% |
45.75% |
7.22% |
6.22% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
DUP |
DUP |
| Antrim North |
3.24% |
46.40% |
9.64% |
11.45% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
DUP |
DUP |
| Antrim South |
7.70% |
33.95% |
9.51% |
12.83% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
DUP |
DUP |
| Belfast East |
37.26% |
32.70% |
1.15% |
2.18% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
Alliance Party |
Alliance Party |
| Belfast North |
4.97% |
40.58% |
13.62% |
31.79% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
DUP |
DUP |
| Belfast South |
14.42% |
22.76% |
43.11% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
SDLP |
SDLP |
| Belfast West |
0.00% |
6.32% |
15.33% |
67.86% |
0.00% |
1.79% |
Sinn Fein |
Sinn Fein |
| Down North |
5.56% |
0.00% |
2.20% |
0.68% |
62.81% |
0.00% |
Sylvia Hermon |
Sylvia Hermon |
| Down South |
1.28% |
8.32% |
51.57% |
25.76% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
SDLP |
SDLP |
| Fermanagh & South Tyrone |
0.95% |
0.00% |
8.45% |
42.48% |
0.00% |
47.17% |
Sinn Fein |
UUP |
| Foyle |
0.58% |
11.57% |
47.71% |
28.74% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
SDLP |
SDLP |
| Lagan Valley |
11.32% |
49.19% |
5.42% |
3.65% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
DUP |
DUP |
| Londonderry East |
5.46% |
34.23% |
16.71% |
17.59% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
DUP |
DUP |
| Newry & Armagh |
1.22% |
12.84% |
25.66% |
38.74% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
Sinn Fein |
Sinn Fein |
| Strangford |
8.54% |
44.95% |
7.13% |
3.22% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
DUP |
DUP |
| Tyrone West |
2.33% |
19.93% |
15.42% |
45.02% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
Sinn Fein |
Sinn Fein |
| Ulster Mid |
0.00% |
0.00% |
19.34% |
43.93% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
Sinn Fein |
Sinn Fein |
| Upper Bann |
2.96% |
33.57% |
13.84% |
22.63% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
DUP |
DUP |
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