Appraisal of my UK 2015 GE seat predictions vs bookie predictions
Accuracy of seat predictions compared by region:
| Region |
My accuracy |
Bookie accuracy |
Hustings accuracy |
| Whole UK |
571/650 (87.85%) |
589/650 (90.62%) |
557/631 (88.27%) |
| Scotland |
51/59 (86.44%) |
55/59 (93.22%) |
49/59 (83.05%) |
| Wales |
35/40 (87.50%) |
36/40 (90.00%) |
35/40 (87.50%) |
| London |
68/73 (93.15%) |
66/73 (90.41%) |
67/73 (91.78%) |
| East Midlands |
36/46 (78.26%) |
39/46 (84.78%) |
37/46 (80.43%) |
| West Midlands |
51/59 (86.44%) |
55/59 (93.22%) |
53/59 (89.83%) |
| South West |
52/55 (94.55%) |
46/55 (83.64%) |
45/55 (81.82%) |
| Eastern |
51/58 (87.93%) |
53/58 (91.38%) |
52/58 (89.66%) |
| North East |
27/29 (93.10%) |
28/29 (96.55%) |
28/29 (96.55%) |
| South East |
78/84 (92.86%) |
77/84 (91.67%) |
77/84 (91.67%) |
| North West |
61/75 (81.33%) |
67/75 (89.33%) |
67/75 (89.33%) |
| Yorkshire and the Humber |
45/54 (83.33%) |
51/54 (94.44%) |
47/53 (88.68%) |
| Northern Ireland |
16/18 (88.89%) |
16/18 (88.89%) |
- |
Predictions compared by party:
| Party |
Actual Seats |
My prediction |
Bookie prediction |
Hustings prediction |
Closest |
| Alliance Party |
0 |
1 (+1) |
0 (0) |
1 (+1) |
Bookies |
| Conservative |
330 |
283 (-47) |
280 (-50) |
275 (-55) |
Me |
| DUP |
8 |
8 (0) |
9 (+1) |
8 (0) |
Me/Hustings |
| Green |
1 |
3 (+2) |
1 (0) |
1 (0) |
Bookies/Hustings |
| Labour |
232 |
279 (+47) |
264 (+32) |
282 (+50) |
Bookies |
| Liberal Democrat |
8 |
3 (+5) |
26 (+18) |
19 (+11) |
Me |
| Plaid Cymru |
3 |
3 (0) |
3 (0) |
4 (+1) |
Me/Bookies |
| Respect |
0 |
1 (+1) |
1 (+1) |
0 (0) |
Hustings |
| SDLP |
3 |
3 (0) |
3 (0) |
- |
Draw |
| SNP |
56 |
50 (-6) |
54 (-2) |
46 (-10) |
Bookies |
| Sinn Fein |
4 |
4 (0) |
5 (+1) |
- |
Me |
| Speaker |
1 |
0 (-1) |
1 (0) |
0 (-1) |
Bookies |
| Sylvia Hermon |
1 |
1 (0) |
1 (0) |
- |
Draw |
| UKIP |
1 |
10 (+9) |
2 (+1) |
3 (+2) |
Bookies |
| UUP |
2 |
1 (-1) |
0 (-2) |
- |
Me |
Actual Seat change summary:
| Party |
Seats Lost |
Seats Held |
Seats Won |
Total Seats |
Change |
| Alliance Party |
1 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
-1 |
| Conservative |
10 |
293 |
37 |
330 |
+27 |
| DUP |
1 |
7 |
1 |
8 |
0 |
| Green |
0 |
1 |
0 |
1 |
0 |
| Labour |
49 |
209 |
23 |
232 |
-26 |
| Liberal Democrat |
49 |
8 |
0 |
8 |
-49 |
| Plaid Cymru |
0 |
3 |
0 |
3 |
0 |
| Respect |
1 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
-1 |
| SDLP |
0 |
3 |
0 |
3 |
0 |
| SNP |
0 |
6 |
50 |
56 |
+50 |
| Sinn Fein |
1 |
4 |
0 |
4 |
-1 |
| Speaker |
0 |
1 |
0 |
1 |
0 |
| Sylvia Hermon |
0 |
1 |
0 |
1 |
0 |
| UKIP |
1 |
1 |
0 |
1 |
-1 |
| UUP |
0 |
0 |
2 |
2 |
+2 |
Bookie prediction change summary:
| Party |
Seats Lost |
Seats Held |
Seats Won |
Total Seats |
Change |
| Alliance Party |
1 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
-1 |
| Conservative |
36 |
267 |
13 |
280 |
-23 |
| DUP |
0 |
8 |
1 |
9 |
+1 |
| Green |
0 |
1 |
0 |
1 |
0 |
| Labour |
38 |
220 |
44 |
264 |
+6 |
| Liberal Democrat |
31 |
26 |
0 |
26 |
-31 |
| Plaid Cymru |
0 |
3 |
0 |
3 |
0 |
| Respect |
0 |
1 |
0 |
1 |
0 |
| SDLP |
0 |
3 |
0 |
3 |
0 |
| SNP |
0 |
6 |
48 |
54 |
+48 |
| Sinn Fein |
0 |
5 |
0 |
5 |
0 |
| Speaker |
0 |
1 |
0 |
1 |
0 |
| Sylvia Hermon |
0 |
1 |
0 |
1 |
0 |
| UKIP |
1 |
1 |
1 |
2 |
0 |
My predicted seat change summary:
| Party |
Seats Lost |
Seats Held |
Seats Won |
Total Seats |
Change |
| Alliance Party |
0 |
1 |
0 |
1 |
0 |
| Conservative |
50 |
253 |
30 |
283 |
-20 |
| DUP |
0 |
8 |
0 |
8 |
0 |
| Green |
0 |
1 |
2 |
3 |
+2 |
| Labour |
38 |
220 |
59 |
279 |
+21 |
| Liberal Democrat |
54 |
3 |
0 |
3 |
-54 |
| Plaid Cymru |
1 |
2 |
1 |
3 |
0 |
| Respect |
0 |
1 |
0 |
1 |
0 |
| SDLP |
0 |
3 |
0 |
3 |
0 |
| SNP |
0 |
6 |
44 |
50 |
+44 |
| Sinn Fein |
1 |
4 |
0 |
4 |
-1 |
| Speaker |
1 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
-1 |
| Sylvia Hermon |
0 |
1 |
0 |
1 |
0 |
| UKIP |
0 |
2 |
8 |
10 |
+8 |
| UUP |
0 |
0 |
1 |
1 |
+1 |
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