Latest Scottish Poll of Polls for UK 2015 General Election and Scottish seat predictions

Poll of polls for Voting Intention of the Scottish Electorate in UK 2015 General Election:

Voting Intention of the Scottish Electorate for UK 2015 General Election 

The chart is made from 234 polls with a cumulative sample count of 73138.

Individual points are poll results. Poll results are centred on the midway point of a poll, so if poll was taken from the 11th to the 13th it will be placed at the 12th. Point size is a rough indicator of the sample count of the poll. The lines are an exponentially smoothed sample count weighted moving average. The Scottish part extracted from a UK wide poll with only 150 usable samples will have a lesser effect on the moving average than a poll of Scotland with 1000 samples.

Scotland seat change summary:

Party	Seats Lost	Seats Held	Seats Won	Total Seats	Change
Conservative	0	1	0	1	0
Labour	33	8	0	8	-33
Liberal Democrat	8	3	0	3	-8
SNP	0	6	41	47	+41

Scotland vote share multiplying factors:

Party	2010 %	Predicted %	Multiplier	Party incumbency bonus %	Candidate incumbency bonus %
Conservative	16.74%	16.39%	0.98x	0.50%	0.50%
Green	0.68%	2.42%	3.55x	2.50%	2.50%
Labour	42.00%	25.13%	0.60x	1.00%	1.00%
Liberal Democrat	18.88%	6.61%	0.35x	5.00%	5.00%
SNP	19.93%	45.72%	2.29x	0.00%	0.00%
UKIP	0.70%	2.76%	3.95x	2.50%	2.50%

Tactical voting factors:

Party Vote Source	Tactical Target Party	Tactical voting likelihood %
Labour	Liberal Democrat	36.84%
Labour	Conservative	19.09%
UKIP	Labour	25.00%
UKIP	Liberal Democrat	50.00%
UKIP	Conservative	75.00%
Liberal Democrat	Labour	28.02%
Liberal Democrat	Conservative	36.94%
Conservative	Labour	19.90%
Conservative	Liberal Democrat	47.61%

Predicted UK GE 2015 Constituency results in Scotland:

Constituency	Conservative	Labour	Liberal Democrat	SNP	2010 Result	My 2015 Prediction	Bookies 2015 Prediction
Aberdeen North	9.81%	31.42%	4.73%	51.60%	Labour	SNP	SNP
Aberdeen South	19.18%	34.39%	8.45%	32.12%	Labour	Labour	SNP
Aberdeenshire West & Kincardine	21.01%	7.83%	28.32%	39.15%	Liberal Democrat	SNP	SNP
Airdrie & Shotts	7.00%	38.94%	1.53%	51.04%	Labour	SNP	SNP
Angus	27.01%	5.91%	1.69%	64.31%	SNP	SNP	SNP
Argyll & Bute	12.40%	8.64%	28.00%	43.73%	Liberal Democrat	SNP	SNP
Ayr, Carrick & Cumnock	21.09%	33.77%	2.23%	42.86%	Labour	SNP	SNP
Ayrshire Central	16.30%	34.97%	3.07%	44.61%	Labour	SNP	SNP
Ayrshire North & Arran	11.32%	30.43%	2.34%	54.96%	Labour	SNP	SNP
Banff & Buchan	23.74%	4.85%	1.79%	67.69%	SNP	SNP	SNP
Berwickshire, Roxburgh & Selkirk	25.52%	6.84%	36.96%	27.27%	Liberal Democrat	Liberal Democrat	Conservative
Caithness, Sutherland & Easter Ross	7.45%	10.38%	30.64%	49.07%	Liberal Democrat	SNP	SNP
Coatbridge, Chryston & Bellshill	6.63%	46.10%	1.71%	45.15%	Labour	Labour	SNP
Cumbernauld, Kilsyth & Kirkintilloch East	6.31%	36.08%	2.22%	53.82%	Labour	SNP	SNP
Dumfries & Galloway	32.76%	24.57%	4.44%	34.70%	Labour	SNP	SNP
Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale & Tweeddale	38.18%	18.29%	4.93%	33.21%	Conservative	Conservative	Conservative
Dunbartonshire East	11.07%	16.22%	34.79%	35.44%	Liberal Democrat	SNP	SNP
Dunbartonshire West	6.02%	39.72%	1.52%	46.67%	Labour	SNP	SNP
Dundee East	8.81%	18.46%	1.97%	64.09%	SNP	SNP	SNP
Dundee West	6.44%	27.65%	2.86%	60.73%	Labour	SNP	SNP
Dunfermline & Fife West	6.87%	44.47%	11.47%	31.64%	Labour	Labour	SNP
East Kilbride, Strathaven & Lesmahagow	9.38%	32.21%	2.30%	48.73%	Labour	SNP	SNP
East Lothian	15.38%	33.72%	4.24%	36.71%	Labour	SNP	SNP
Edinburgh East	7.78%	27.72%	4.45%	42.48%	Labour	SNP	SNP
Edinburgh North & Leith	15.52%	31.29%	7.31%	34.31%	Labour	SNP	SNP
Edinburgh South	20.17%	33.14%	9.00%	29.99%	Labour	Labour	SNP
Edinburgh South West	20.00%	31.35%	4.51%	35.45%	Labour	SNP	SNP
Edinburgh West	14.18%	12.50%	36.71%	36.02%	Liberal Democrat	Liberal Democrat	SNP
Falkirk	7.21%	27.28%	2.12%	56.86%	Labour	SNP	SNP
Fife North East	13.93%	7.95%	33.90%	38.83%	Liberal Democrat	SNP	SNP
Glasgow Central	5.16%	34.59%	3.49%	41.80%	Labour	SNP	SNP
Glasgow East	3.63%	36.74%	1.08%	51.66%	Labour	SNP	SNP
Glasgow North	5.66%	34.53%	6.52%	38.04%	Labour	SNP	SNP
Glasgow North East	4.48%	48.81%	1.64%	38.79%	Labour	Labour	Labour
Glasgow North West	7.58%	38.07%	3.58%	40.30%	Labour	SNP	SNP
Glasgow South	8.87%	33.52%	2.45%	46.53%	Labour	SNP	SNP
Glasgow South West	5.30%	37.74%	2.08%	48.02%	Labour	SNP	SNP
Glenrothes	5.54%	40.03%	1.90%	48.83%	Labour	SNP	SNP
Gordon	10.36%	10.89%	26.34%	47.20%	Liberal Democrat	SNP	SNP
Inverclyde	6.31%	29.23%	0.46%	61.53%	Labour	SNP	SNP
Inverness, Nairn, Badenoch & Strathspey	8.38%	10.63%	25.06%	46.29%	Liberal Democrat	SNP	SNP
Kilmarnock & Loudoun	10.21%	32.68%	1.70%	54.74%	Labour	SNP	SNP
Kirkcaldy & Cowdenbeath	7.49%	43.24%	2.79%	40.51%	Labour	Labour	SNP
Lanark & Hamilton East	11.23%	34.21%	2.71%	46.02%	Labour	SNP	SNP
Linlithgow & Falkirk East	8.87%	32.18%	3.06%	55.22%	Labour	SNP	SNP
Livingston	7.62%	30.41%	2.53%	53.72%	Labour	SNP	SNP
Midlothian	8.93%	31.93%	4.13%	45.38%	Labour	SNP	SNP
Moray	25.94%	5.77%	2.24%	63.54%	SNP	SNP	SNP
Motherwell & Wishaw	6.47%	41.25%	1.83%	47.66%	Labour	SNP	SNP
Na h-Eileanan an Iar (Western Isles)	2.40%	14.78%	1.31%	72.91%	SNP	SNP	SNP
Ochil & South Perthshire	13.27%	24.44%	2.37%	52.34%	Labour	SNP	SNP
Orkney & Shetland	5.86%	4.38%	47.42%	26.31%	Liberal Democrat	Liberal Democrat	Liberal Democrat
Paisley & Renfrewshire North	11.74%	37.79%	2.72%	44.86%	Labour	SNP	SNP
Paisley & Renfrewshire South	6.55%	39.79%	1.63%	47.87%	Labour	SNP	SNP
Perth & North Perthshire	24.36%	5.80%	1.99%	66.36%	SNP	SNP	SNP
Renfrewshire East	25.82%	35.01%	2.66%	34.09%	Labour	Labour	SNP
Ross, Skye & Lochaber	7.11%	6.71%	33.75%	42.84%	Liberal Democrat	SNP	SNP
Rutherglen & Hamilton West	8.03%	44.04%	3.20%	39.12%	Labour	Labour	Labour
Stirling	18.19%	31.06%	3.53%	38.26%	Labour	SNP	SNP

Latest Scottish Poll of Polls for UK 2015 General Election and Scottish seat predictions

Poll of polls for Voting Intention of the Scottish Electorate in UK 2015 General Election:

Voting Intention of the Scottish Electorate for UK 2015 General Election

The chart is made from 224 polls with a cumulative sample count of 70051.

Individual points are poll results. Poll results are centred on the midway point of a poll, so if poll was taken from the 11th to the 13th it will be placed at the 12th. Point size is a rough indicator of the sample count of the poll. The lines are an exponentially smoothed sample count weighted moving average. The Scottish part extracted from a UK wide poll with only 150 usable samples will have a lesser effect on the moving average than a poll of Scotland with 1000 samples.

UK overall Seat change predictions:

Party	Seats Lost	Seats Held	Seats Won	Total Seats	Change
Alliance Party	0	1	0	1	0
Conservative	51	252	33	285	-18
DUP	0	8	0	8	0
Green	0	1	4	5	+4
Labour	41	217	61	278	+20
Liberal Democrat	57	0	0	0	-57
Plaid Cymru	2	1	1	2	-1
Respect	0	1	0	1	0
SDLP	0	3	0	3	0
SNP	0	6	45	51	+45
Sinn Fein	1	4	0	4	-1
Speaker	1	0	0	0	-1
Sylvia Hermon	0	1	0	1	0
UKIP	0	2	8	10	+8
UUP	0	0	1	1	+1

Scotland seat change summary:

Party	Seats Lost	Seats Held	Seats Won	Total Seats	Change
Conservative	0	1	2	3	+2
Labour	37	4	0	4	-37
Liberal Democrat	11	0	0	0	-11
SNP	0	6	45	51	+45
UKIP	0	0	1	1	+1

Predicted UK GE 2015 Constituency results in Scotland:

Constituency	Conservative	Labour	Liberal Democrat	SNP	UKIP	2010 Result	2015 Prediction
Aberdeen North	12.68%	27.36%	6.81%	50.68%	0.00%	Labour	SNP
Aberdeen South	24.49%	25.96%	12.01%	31.17%	0.00%	Labour	SNP
Aberdeenshire West & Kincardine	29.22%	9.54%	17.64%	38.80%	3.55%	Liberal Democrat	SNP
Airdrie & Shotts	8.03%	37.76%	1.98%	50.71%	0.00%	Labour	SNP
Angus	22.16%	7.42%	2.76%	63.04%	4.60%	SNP	SNP
Argyll & Bute	24.26%	13.79%	11.42%	42.52%	0.00%	Liberal Democrat	SNP
Ayr, Carrick & Cumnock	24.10%	30.66%	2.76%	42.43%	0.00%	Labour	SNP
Ayrshire Central	21.07%	29.66%	4.41%	43.80%	0.00%	Labour	SNP
Ayrshire North & Arran	14.69%	26.77%	3.38%	54.20%	0.00%	Labour	SNP
Banff & Buchan	22.36%	6.11%	2.95%	66.62%	0.00%	SNP	SNP
Berwickshire, Roxburgh & Selkirk	35.68%	8.26%	23.96%	27.00%	4.63%	Liberal Democrat	Conservative
Caithness, Sutherland & Easter Ross	14.88%	16.92%	16.94%	48.74%	0.00%	Liberal Democrat	SNP
Coatbridge, Chryston & Bellshill	7.69%	44.79%	2.24%	44.85%	0.00%	Labour	SNP
Cumbernauld, Kilsyth & Kirkintilloch East	7.28%	34.87%	2.76%	53.49%	0.00%	Labour	SNP
Dumfries & Galloway	34.60%	22.25%	4.69%	34.48%	3.55%	Labour	Conservative
Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale & Tweeddale	35.61%	19.14%	5.62%	32.96%	3.54%	Conservative	Conservative
Dunbartonshire East	15.98%	21.22%	23.49%	35.18%	3.58%	Liberal Democrat	SNP
Dunbartonshire West	6.89%	37.74%	1.97%	46.25%	5.45%	Labour	SNP
Dundee East	11.35%	14.94%	2.82%	62.72%	3.34%	SNP	SNP
Dundee West	7.44%	26.46%	3.45%	60.30%	0.00%	Labour	SNP
Dunfermline & Fife West	8.81%	36.28%	16.39%	30.83%	7.12%	Labour	Labour
East Kilbride, Strathaven & Lesmahagow	12.07%	28.78%	3.30%	47.61%	0.00%	Labour	SNP
East Lothian	19.60%	26.72%	6.02%	35.55%	4.69%	Labour	SNP
Edinburgh East	9.85%	23.53%	6.27%	40.88%	0.00%	Labour	SNP
Edinburgh North & Leith	17.45%	27.16%	9.47%	33.80%	0.00%	Labour	SNP
Edinburgh South	23.00%	28.04%	11.21%	29.55%	0.00%	Labour	SNP
Edinburgh South West	22.80%	27.64%	5.53%	34.90%	0.00%	Labour	SNP
Edinburgh West	28.11%	20.21%	15.59%	35.49%	0.00%	Liberal Democrat	SNP
Falkirk	9.29%	22.74%	3.05%	55.69%	8.83%	Labour	SNP
Fife North East	19.69%	10.03%	23.41%	38.32%	7.87%	Liberal Democrat	SNP
Glasgow Central	5.91%	32.53%	4.34%	41.21%	3.14%	Labour	SNP
Glasgow East	4.12%	35.85%	1.35%	51.31%	3.28%	Labour	SNP
Glasgow North	6.50%	31.65%	8.39%	37.47%	0.00%	Labour	SNP
Glasgow North East	5.20%	47.78%	2.14%	38.50%	0.00%	Labour	Labour
Glasgow North West	8.71%	36.01%	4.46%	39.76%	0.00%	Labour	SNP
Glasgow South	10.09%	31.73%	3.06%	45.95%	0.00%	Labour	SNP
Glasgow South West	5.70%	37.15%	2.35%	47.83%	0.00%	Labour	SNP
Glenrothes	7.16%	37.16%	2.72%	47.91%	4.39%	Labour	SNP
Gordon	14.96%	13.17%	19.67%	46.60%	0.00%	Liberal Democrat	SNP
Inverclyde	8.20%	26.77%	0.66%	60.79%	3.58%	Labour	SNP
Inverness, Nairn, Badenoch & Strathspey	11.72%	13.18%	17.79%	45.84%	4.59%	Liberal Democrat	SNP
Kilmarnock & Loudoun	13.26%	29.57%	2.46%	54.02%	0.00%	Labour	SNP
Kirkcaldy & Cowdenbeath	8.61%	40.86%	3.34%	40.05%	5.34%	Labour	Labour
Lanark & Hamilton East	14.48%	29.00%	3.90%	45.11%	5.39%	Labour	SNP
Linlithgow & Falkirk East	11.52%	28.87%	4.42%	54.50%	0.00%	Labour	SNP
Livingston	9.87%	26.72%	3.64%	52.89%	3.58%	Labour	SNP
Midlothian	11.42%	27.16%	5.88%	44.11%	3.76%	Labour	SNP
Moray	18.36%	7.24%	3.66%	62.18%	7.87%	SNP	SNP
Motherwell & Wishaw	7.64%	39.78%	2.42%	47.33%	0.00%	Labour	SNP
Na h-Eileanan an Iar (Western Isles)	3.12%	14.04%	1.89%	72.17%	0.00%	SNP	SNP
Ochil & South Perthshire	17.05%	18.95%	3.39%	51.10%	4.79%	Labour	SNP
Orkney & Shetland	11.48%	7.00%	24.25%	25.65%	29.14%	Liberal Democrat	UKIP
Paisley & Renfrewshire North	15.20%	33.81%	3.92%	44.14%	0.00%	Labour	SNP
Paisley & Renfrewshire South	7.15%	39.03%	1.91%	47.68%	0.00%	Labour	SNP
Perth & North Perthshire	22.63%	7.31%	3.27%	65.27%	0.00%	SNP	SNP
Renfrewshire East	27.71%	32.75%	2.94%	33.93%	1.63%	Labour	SNP
Ross, Skye & Lochaber	8.71%	7.62%	30.03%	42.62%	3.61%	Liberal Democrat	SNP
Rutherglen & Hamilton West	10.35%	39.13%	4.60%	38.32%	6.49%	Labour	Labour
Stirling	23.16%	24.19%	5.00%	37.01%	3.43%	Labour	SNP

Wales seat change summary:

Party	Seats Lost	Seats Held	Seats Won	Total Seats	Change
Conservative	1	7	1	8	0
Labour	0	26	4	30	+4
Liberal Democrat	3	0	0	0	-3
Plaid Cymru	2	1	1	2	-1

Latest Scottish Poll of Polls for UK 2015 General Election and Scottish seat predictions

Poll of polls for Voting Intention of the Scottish Electorate in UK 2015 General Election:

Voting Intention of the Scottish Electorate for UK 2015 General Election

The chart is made from 220 polls with a cumulative sample count of 68710.

Individual points are poll results. Poll results are centred on the midway point of a poll, so if poll was taken from the 11th to the 13th it will be placed at the 12th. Point size is a rough indicator of the sample count of the poll. The lines are an exponentially smoothed sample count weighted moving average. The Scottish part extracted from a UK wide poll with only 150 usable samples will have a lesser effect on the moving average than a poll of Scotland with 1000 samples.

Scotland seat change summary:

Party	Seats Lost	Seats Held	Seats Won	Total Seats	Change
Conservative	0	1	2	3	+2
Labour	37	4	0	4	-37
Liberal Democrat	11	0	0	0	-11
SNP	0	6	45	51	+45
UKIP	0	0	1	1	+1

Predicted UK GE 2015 Constituency results in Scotland:

Constituency	Conservative	Labour	Liberal Democrat	SNP	UKIP	2010 Result	2015 Prediction
Aberdeen North	12.86%	27.07%	7.03%	50.57%	0.00%	Labour	SNP
Aberdeen South	24.70%	25.55%	12.34%	30.93%	0.00%	Labour	SNP
Aberdeenshire West & Kincardine	29.34%	9.46%	17.83%	38.64%	3.47%	Liberal Democrat	SNP
Airdrie & Shotts	8.10%	37.62%	2.03%	50.72%	0.00%	Labour	SNP
Angus	22.45%	7.33%	2.85%	62.88%	4.46%	SNP	SNP
Argyll & Bute	24.42%	13.55%	11.72%	42.13%	0.00%	Liberal Democrat	SNP
Ayr, Carrick & Cumnock	24.27%	30.49%	2.82%	42.37%	0.00%	Labour	SNP
Ayrshire Central	21.35%	29.34%	4.56%	43.70%	0.00%	Labour	SNP
Ayrshire North & Arran	14.91%	26.51%	3.49%	54.13%	0.00%	Labour	SNP
Banff & Buchan	22.62%	6.03%	3.04%	66.35%	0.00%	SNP	SNP
Berwickshire, Roxburgh & Selkirk	35.78%	8.19%	24.19%	26.87%	4.52%	Liberal Democrat	Conservative
Caithness, Sutherland & Easter Ross	15.01%	16.66%	17.41%	48.40%	0.00%	Liberal Democrat	SNP
Coatbridge, Chryston & Bellshill	7.77%	44.63%	2.30%	44.88%	0.00%	Labour	SNP
Cumbernauld, Kilsyth & Kirkintilloch East	7.34%	34.73%	2.82%	53.50%	0.00%	Labour	SNP
Dumfries & Galloway	34.72%	22.17%	4.72%	34.47%	3.51%	Labour	Conservative
Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale & Tweeddale	35.69%	19.07%	5.67%	32.92%	3.49%	Conservative	Conservative
Dunbartonshire East	16.09%	21.03%	23.75%	35.09%	3.48%	Liberal Democrat	SNP
Dunbartonshire West	6.96%	37.63%	2.02%	46.30%	5.37%	Labour	SNP
Dundee East	11.51%	14.79%	2.91%	62.60%	3.25%	SNP	SNP
Dundee West	7.51%	26.33%	3.51%	60.28%	0.00%	Labour	SNP
Dunfermline & Fife West	8.93%	35.89%	16.92%	30.76%	6.92%	Labour	Labour
East Kilbride, Strathaven & Lesmahagow	12.22%	28.44%	3.40%	47.47%	0.00%	Labour	SNP
East Lothian	19.83%	26.39%	6.20%	35.41%	4.55%	Labour	SNP
Edinburgh East	9.93%	23.14%	6.44%	40.56%	0.00%	Labour	SNP
Edinburgh North & Leith	17.51%	26.91%	9.66%	33.68%	0.00%	Labour	SNP
Edinburgh South	23.07%	27.79%	11.39%	29.44%	0.00%	Labour	SNP
Edinburgh South West	22.91%	27.43%	5.63%	34.80%	0.00%	Labour	SNP
Edinburgh West	28.32%	19.87%	16.01%	35.20%	0.00%	Liberal Democrat	SNP
Falkirk	9.45%	22.59%	3.16%	55.79%	8.61%	Labour	SNP
Fife North East	19.81%	9.95%	23.66%	38.23%	7.68%	Liberal Democrat	SNP
Glasgow Central	5.95%	32.35%	4.43%	41.15%	3.09%	Labour	SNP
Glasgow East	4.15%	35.74%	1.38%	51.36%	3.25%	Labour	SNP
Glasgow North	6.54%	31.40%	8.55%	37.35%	0.00%	Labour	SNP
Glasgow North East	5.25%	47.61%	2.20%	38.52%	0.00%	Labour	Labour
Glasgow North West	8.77%	35.80%	4.55%	39.69%	0.00%	Labour	SNP
Glasgow South	10.16%	31.54%	3.12%	45.86%	0.00%	Labour	SNP
Glasgow South West	5.73%	37.06%	2.38%	47.83%	0.00%	Labour	SNP
Glenrothes	7.28%	36.93%	2.83%	48.01%	4.29%	Labour	SNP
Gordon	15.03%	13.07%	19.85%	46.40%	0.00%	Liberal Democrat	SNP
Inverclyde	8.35%	26.59%	0.68%	60.89%	3.49%	Labour	SNP
Inverness, Nairn, Badenoch & Strathspey	11.77%	13.07%	18.00%	45.69%	4.50%	Liberal Democrat	SNP
Kilmarnock & Loudoun	13.46%	29.30%	2.55%	54.00%	0.00%	Labour	SNP
Kirkcaldy & Cowdenbeath	8.71%	40.74%	3.41%	40.10%	5.25%	Labour	Labour
Lanark & Hamilton East	14.71%	28.76%	4.04%	45.12%	5.25%	Labour	SNP
Linlithgow & Falkirk East	11.69%	28.60%	4.57%	54.45%	0.00%	Labour	SNP
Livingston	10.03%	26.50%	3.77%	52.90%	3.48%	Labour	SNP
Midlothian	11.57%	26.86%	6.07%	44.00%	3.65%	Labour	SNP
Moray	18.62%	7.17%	3.79%	62.08%	7.65%	SNP	SNP
Motherwell & Wishaw	7.72%	39.61%	2.49%	47.33%	0.00%	Labour	SNP
Na h-Eileanan an Iar (Western Isles)	3.17%	13.92%	1.96%	72.14%	0.00%	SNP	SNP
Ochil & South Perthshire	17.28%	18.75%	3.50%	50.98%	4.66%	Labour	SNP
Orkney & Shetland	11.64%	6.92%	25.04%	25.59%	28.31%	Liberal Democrat	UKIP
Paisley & Renfrewshire North	15.43%	33.49%	4.05%	44.09%	0.00%	Labour	SNP
Paisley & Renfrewshire South	7.19%	38.94%	1.94%	47.67%	0.00%	Labour	SNP
Perth & North Perthshire	22.90%	7.22%	3.37%	65.00%	0.00%	SNP	SNP
Renfrewshire East	27.82%	32.65%	2.97%	33.91%	1.60%	Labour	SNP
Ross, Skye & Lochaber	8.73%	7.58%	30.15%	42.54%	3.54%	Liberal Democrat	SNP
Rutherglen & Hamilton West	10.53%	38.87%	4.77%	38.39%	6.33%	Labour	Labour
Stirling	23.42%	23.87%	5.16%	36.84%	3.32%	Labour	SNP